The short-time roadmap for MF can be extrapolated from the demand and the supply side and the tech side.
On the supply side we essentially have three brands, C1, H, L and P, with C1 and H established in specialty markets, L expanding its distribution network, and P a novel low-end actor with access to distribution.
On the demand side we have the luxury market served by C1, the pro market or what is left of it, and the amateur market. The luxury market seems to be doing well with the rich getting richer and good marketing by C1, the pros are getting rarer and many are using prosumer dSLRs in substitution for film MF, and the amateurs have been badly hit by the economy and have been priced out.
On the tech side the difference between MF and dSLR was the use of technically complex CCD circuitry which produced exceptionally clean image data; this is now obsolete and being replaced by drop-in CMOS, leading to considerably simpler electronics and lower image quality with more flexible usability. The transition will be irreversible as soon as the current generation of engineers retire.
The usage of CMOS drop-in components is creating an opportunity for new entrants, allows chinese design and assembly, and effectively levels the image quality differential between brands. The camera bodies remain the weakest point in the MF experience.
I would forecast general disappointment with the MF image quality differential when the next gen 70-80 Megapixel 35mm sensors hit, and maybe consolidation impacting one of the high-end players. The entry of Canon or Nikon into the MF market, leveraging both their existing technology and sales networks, could trigger a revival of the amateur and pro markets - at the cost of disappearance of one or both of C1 and H.
Edmund
in october of 2013, japan's dslr manufacturers shipped out 1.5 million units and by january 2014 less than 800,000 units. all the major players are taking a big hit and the companies themselves see no light at the end of the tunnel either in camera body sales or lenses. is there any published info on the sale increase/decrease pertaining to the mf market? is the current climate of shrinking disposable income one of the reasons that phase one partnered with a venture company? could we see the mf market lose some major players over the next few years or see them merge to stay alive? have the cameras on the i-phone type devices become good enough for those not into fine art that canon, nikon, etc. can no longer compete at the lower end of the dslr market, be it mirrorless or not? how will those lost sales effect research and development? i don't believe anyone thinks that mf is immune from the economics we are living in today. what is the road map for future mf development?
