I vote for the lens aperture, either the camera isn't stopping down consistently or the aperture is sticking. I doubt its the shutter, as the failure mode is usually different. I've never seen a meter failure in a DSLR, not that its impossible, but I've never seen it. In fact, I haven't seen a Nikon or Canon meter failure since they moved away from the simple needle solenium cells of the FM/FE/F1.