"the transition to Creative Cloud is happening sooner than expected"

[Isaac]

... Adobe exited Q3 with 1 million 31 thousand paid Creative Cloud subscriptions, an increase of 331 thousand when compared to the number of subscriptions as of the end of Q2 fiscal year 2013 ...

... “We exceeded one million subscriptions during Q3, demonstrating that the transition to Creative Cloud is happening sooner than expected,” said Shantanu Narayen, president and chief executive officer, Adobe.

pdf Adobe Q3 FY2013 Earnings Press Release

We should start to see the benefit of adding single app subscriptions to our team offering, and a new subscription offer for photographers which combines Photoshop and Lightroom to address requests from the photography community.

pdf Adobe Q3 FY2013 Earnings Call Script

[jjj]

I seem to recall the no. of people using Creative suite though was 7-8 million.

[Isaac]

Slide 25 -- http://wwwimages.adobe.com/www.adobe.com/content/dam/Adobe/en/investor-relations/PDFs/AdobeMAXFABriefingSlides6May2013.pdf

[jjj]

Ta
No surprises you are there to get things nice and precise Issac. 
I did actually think it was 8.5 million, but thought it was chancing it saying something that precise and hedged my bets. And it was actually 8.4 million.

So 7.4 million conversions to go then.

[Isaac]

Slide 28 -- only 3.5 million paid subscriptions for year ending 2015, on Adobe's Subscription Adoption Model.

[john beardsworth]

The other key number is they had 700k subscribers when they removed the choice to buy or subscribe. So they've put on 300k during Q3.

[Rick Popham]

The other key number is they had 700k subscribers when they removed the choice to buy or subscribe. So they've put on 300k during Q3.

Yes, it would be interesting to see how the numbers played out if the perpetual license was still available.  Oh well, we'll never know.

[daws]

There's one thing we do know: Adobe can be trusted to put the best PR spin on their sales numbers, whatever those numbers may be.

[robgo2]

The other key number is they had 700k subscribers when they removed the choice to buy or subscribe. So they've put on 300k during Q3.

This bump is to be expected immediately after they rolled out the new plan.  The big question is whether it will be sustained.  There are an awful lot of people who are planning to hold onto their CS5 and CS6 for as long as possible.  I'm one of them.

Rob

[BernardLanguillier]

Considering that they released the equivalent of CS7 in the meantime with cloud option only and spent an amazing amount marketing it, only 0.3 million new users on CC in Q3 out of a user base of 8+ millions looks like a major failure to me.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Isaac]

Meeting planned goals is ordinarily considered a success, so beware loss of perspective.

[ButchM]

Meeting planned goals is ordinarily considered a success, so beware loss of perspective.

But whose goals? ... Adobe's or the market? Considering they sold over 8 million perpetual licenses of CS6 products in the same time period they sold only 500,000 CC subscriptions, (when customers had a choice) I don't know how anyone can consider their self-generated goal of of 1.3M CC subscriptions by year's end a legitimate goal (considering CC is now the ONLY option) as a credible bench mark as compared to the overall user base of Adobe products. It's easy to under estimate and then call it a "success" ... especially considering the loss of revenue they are experiencing due to the reduced rate for first-year subscriptions ... or better yet ... all the freebie full CC subscriptions they just gave away to attendees at Photoshop World ...

In my mind, they are going to have to surpass their own mark by a substantial margin to achieve the cash flow they have become accustomed to. The old story of under sell ... over deliver ... though not many folk seem to be concerned with overall bottom line profitability of the venture.

[Rhossydd]

Considering they sold over 8 million perpetual licenses of CS6 products

Where do you get numbers like that from ? That's not the figures quoted on presentation slides referenced earlier.

all the freebie full CC subscriptions they just gave away to attendees at Photoshop World ...

That number is insignificant in  their overall results.

....how anyone can consider their self-generated goal of of 1.3M CC subscriptions by year's end a legitimate goal....

If Adobe think 1.3 million is a success it rather suggests they knew what they were getting into with CC and may have under estimated it's overall success.

I'm no fan of CC and am not planning to subscribe, but if you want to try to rip the idea apart please try to do it factually.

[john beardsworth]

Where do you get numbers like that from ? That's not the figures quoted on presentation slides referenced earlier.

They have been quoted on this forum before and come from here http://www.adobe.com/content/dam/Adobe/en/investor-relations/PDFs/AdobeMAXFABriefingSlides6May2013.pdf. See p25 for the 8 million though it refers to Creative Suite, not just CS6 of the suite.

[ButchM]

Where do you get numbers like that from ? That's not the figures quoted on presentation slides referenced earlier.That number is insignificant in  their overall results.If Adobe think 1.3 million is a success it rather suggests they knew what they were getting into with CC and may have under estimated it's overall success.

I'm no fan of CC and am not planning to subscribe, but if you want to try to rip the idea apart please try to do it factually.

Sorry ... I should have stated 5.6 million CS6 licenses ... I'm sure that makes it all better now ...

Adobe is on a roll ... they are doing a wonderful job ... they will show revenues from CC in 2013 that will stun everyone on Wall Street ...

[Rhossydd]

Sorry ... I should have stated 5.6 million CS6 licenses

So only wrong by 30% ? I hope you're not trying to run a business yourself with that sort of error.

[ButchM]

So only wrong by 30% ? I hope you're not trying to run a business yourself with that sort of error.

Thanks for the unsolicited appraisal. It will come in very handy planning my personal endeavors.

You are probably correct on this issue. I have only been self-employed since 1977. I may need to re-evaluate my efforts if I expect to continue on ... sorry for committing such a detrimental error.

I will defer to your superiority on such matters ... Perfection is so rare these days. Glad to see you have achieved that level of expertise. I will attempt to emulate your skills and monitor your contributions here closely to learn as much as I can while basking in the glow of your infinite wisdom. Though I worry I may not be worthy of achieving that goal.

[chez]

Sorry ... I should have stated 5.6 million CS6 licenses ... I'm sure that makes it all better now ...

Adobe is on a roll ... they are doing a wonderful job ... they will show revenues from CC in 2013 that will stun everyone on Wall Street ...

Have you even looked at the Adobe presentation that was quoted. Take a look at their plan. They feel it will take 4 years of CC to reach the same yearly revenue they had in 2012. They know it will not all come in one year. Judging from their stock price, I think investors also know it won't happen over night...but once they reach that same level, they'll continue at that same revenue level or improve on it as it's the nature of a subscription.

Somehow you feel Adobe needs to match their revenue all this year...Adobe doesn't think that and so don't their investors.

I guess you won't be buying any Adobe stock huh. Bet you wish you did a year ago.

[ButchM]

I guess you won't be buying any Adobe stock huh. Bet you wish you did a year ago.

No I won't ... I'm following the same pattern as the Adobe executives did earlier this year ... like when the CEO sold off over 90% of his stock just prior to the CC only announcement ... apparently he didn't feel it wise to let even 10% of his shares ride to even greater potential. I've always been leery of patronizing a restaurant where the chef won't partake of his own efforts at meal time.

What you may want to consider, is where all those expected stock values, future dividends will originate from ... and if they will maintain value over the long haul ... or if it will be ever more likely when it comes crunch time, subscription rates will rise significantly to make up the shortfall ... either that or a significant reduction in staff, services offered or slowdowns in updates/upgrades ... spreadsheets have a way of balancing out in such ways. Quite often, in a very unpleasant manor for the consumer.

While the current Adobe CC offers may seem quite attractive ... and early indicators may look positive, tech stocks are a fickle roller coaster ride and can devalue at a far greater rate unexpectedly. Just look at Apple over the past year or so ... they report their best quarter ever, recording their highest hardware unit sales ever, (except for the iPod) greatest percentage of OS adoption ever with the largest net profit ever (per quarter) ... though they fell a bit short of Wall Street prognosticators' expectations resulting in their stock taking a significant hit nearly overnight ...

What other industry is so fickle that you have such record-setting success ... then are deemed unworthy? The worm can turn when you least expect it. Lauding marginal self-proclaimed success today is no guarantee it will hold up tomorrow.

So, no, I won't be investing in Adobe from either side of the equation ... as a consumer or an investor ...

[chez]

No I won't ... I'm following the same pattern as the Adobe executives did earlier this year ... like when the CEO sold off over 90% of his stock just prior to the CC only announcement ... apparently he didn't feel it wise to let even 10% of his shares ride to even greater potential. I've always been leery of patronizing a restaurant where the chef won't partake of his own efforts at meal time.

Can you please provide a reference to your numbers here. What I found is that the CEO had just under $2,000,000 shares and that he sold about 250,000 shares. My math indicates this is about 12%, a little lower than your 90% claim. Also, the CEO has a bonus structure that can net him another 350,000 shares in 2013.

Now, would you not sell off some 12% of your shares so you can purchase some nice stuff with the money? Is there anything wrong with that? I think not...I would do the same.

Your implications that the rats are jumping off the sinking ship are just nonsense. Where do you dream such things up?