As far as I know, these factories had never been reached by floods before.
I really hope that my assessment below is too pessimistic... but...
The industrial production equipments used to produce camera don't like water. We can only hope that Sony and Nikon could find ways to protect the critical machines from an extended immersion one way or another and/or to move them to higher ground quickly enough.
On top of that, you are not going to make the same mistake twice, meaning that Nikon will have to find another site to produce, or to re-build the building a few meters higher than it currently is... meaning that they either have to:
- find a new site, buy it, build a factory, find people...
- Or... destroy the existing building and build a new one...
Make no mistake, the impact for Nikon and Sony is probably simply huge and consumers looking at buying mid range Nikon or Sony camera should either rush on existing stock or get ready to wait for months.
Cheers,
Bernard
1. Nikon has had floods right up to their front door in previous years. I've seen entire industrial parks underwater one month, and seemingly normal a few months later. I don't know what goes on behind closed doors, but I do know their employees were back at work.
2. This is true. Yet, you've got to believe Japanese engineers can read topographic maps and historic flood reports, and plan their factories accordingly. I would be very surprised if the more important factories weren't graded several meters above surrounding areas and plans weren't put in place to protect expensive machinery. It doesn't take much.. for instance most of Bangkok is at 2-3 meters above sea level. The poorer and older areas weren't built up before development and don't have the drainage infrastructure in place. With flash floods currently cresting at 4 meters above sea level, you can guess vast areas of the capitol are experiencing at least light flooding. Yet, pull up you topo, and check out MBK, Siam Paragon, Chulalongkorn University, and the major hotels.. and you'll find they're at 10-12 meters above sea level. They were built up prior to development with flooding in mind.
Industrial parks come in different 'qualities' for lack of a better word. It depends on the developer who builds the park, and the customers they hope to draw. Water, power, access to transportation hubs, housing for employees, and elevation. Almost all are 1-2 meters above flood, some much more. Individual sites have been built up even higher by their occupants prior to development.
3. My guess is that many of the smaller factories will take heavy hits and consider moving.. Thailand has already lost many significant companies to Vietnam and Malaysia for reasons I could write a book about. If these factories get flooded and they're serious about leaving.. Thailand will make them offers they can't refuse to keep them. It's a very popular practice in Thailand to pay afterwards if stuff happens, than pay before through prevention. If things get so out of control that a big name factory which was further built up in anticipation of floods.. it's going to hit Thailand very hard. Like you say, they'll have lost their major investment and they won't want the same risk again, so they'll rebuild elsewhere. I think if such companies get hit.. they will be few.
4. I don't think "consumers" need to worry about where their next PNS going to come from. First, it's not critical they have one like it is for professionals, and second.. there are plenty of alternatives being made outside of Thailand. Hobbyists looking for consumer grade DSLR gear.. it's not really critical for them either, no need to run out and buy anything at this point. Their need is less, their reaction will be slower, so there's time to wait and see what the damage will be. And there's always ebay.. The used market peaking for 3-6 months will go mostly unnoticed.
