Having more carefully read the whole "two Michaels" debate, I have a couple of comments.
There seems to be no disagreement that larger formats like 645 will be the choice for some niche of high end digital photography, just as larger than 35mm film format cameras survive now, albeit greatly outnumbered by 35mm film SLRs even in professional usage.
MJ seems to be addressing where the SLR mainstream will settle (forget the overall mainstream, which is solidly settled somewhere below 2/3" format, and maybe heading towards the camera phone.)
I agree with MJ that lenses will likely be the persistent "cost and convenience" factor causing smaller format DSLRs from 4/3 through EF-S up to DX to be far more numerous than digital cameras in 35mm format and up.
However, as I have said before, the fairest comparison is at equal effective aperture diameter, not equal aperture ratio: 200/2 for DX vs 300/2.8 for 35mm, 300/2.8 vs 400/4, 400/2.8 vs 600/4.
Such comparison gives equal DOF wide open, and about equal speed for a given noise level once the speed/noise advantage of a larger sensor is accounted for. The price, weight and size comparisons still seem to favor the smaller format with these shorter but "brighter" lenses, but not as nearly as much as if one compares at equal maximum aperture ratios.
Matching lenses this way does elimimate at least a number of common arguments, including one that MR repeats, based on the lower noise of larger sensors at equal ISO speed settings. For example, if when going from 35mm to true APS-C format (a factor of 1.4x) you choose lenses with focal length and maximum aperture ratio both reduced by that factor of 1.4x, the APS-C lens gives
- about the same or lower price and weight
- the same DOF wide open, and in general the same DOF at one stop faster
- twice the exposure level at the same shutter speed and DOF (or same shuter speed and wide open), allowing you to use half the ISO speed setting unles you ar already at minimum. This at least potentially balances the higher noise levels seen if you compare at equal ISO speeds.
In more detail, with the same pixel count in both sensors and hence pixels of half the area in APS-C, this doubling of "lens speed" balances the halving of pixel area and hence gives the same amount of light gathered at each pixel. This seems likely to give similar noise levels.
The main potential disadvantage for the smaller sensor is blown highlights. Not a problem when using elevated ISO settings (underexposing the sensor and then amplifying more), but it gives larger sensors a possible advantage in dynamic range in situations where the minimum ISO setting can be used.
A final disagreement with MR; only a few new lenses are needed when changing to an APS-C format DSLR. It should be clear by now that there is no need for Nikon, Pentax, Konica-Minolta etc. to introduce entire new lens lines for smaller DSLR formats, or for lens owners to replace their whole 35mm format lens collections.
The only new lenses needed are those reaching wide angle focal lengths (below about 50mm). Nikon has already produced most of the DX lenses they need; most photographers only need to add one or two lenses to their existing collection, maybe trading away one or two 35mm "wides". Specifically, the majority of current Nikon 35mm film SLR users probably only need to add the 18-70 f/3.5-4.5 DX when changing to a Nikon DSLR.