Very well written and informative writeup, Matt. Thanks for posting.
Thoughts? Well, I am struck by one immediate thing: Phase One's pricing of an equivalent package (identical sensor) is several thousand dollars more!
* H3DII-31, 31MP back based on the KAF-31000 sensor, 80/2.8 lens:
$ 11,995 at B&H
* PhaseOne 645AF, 31MP back based on the KAF-31000 sensor, 80/2.8 lens:
$ 16,990 at Capture Integration
* PhaseOne 645DF, 31MP back based on the KAF-31000 sensor, 80/2.8 LS lens:
$ 18,990 at Capture Integration
The expletive "WTF?" comes to mind...
Also, although you have identified an Emerging "Entry-Level" MF Market with common pricing around $10k for the H3DII-31, Pentax 645D and Mamiya DM22, I think you should stress that the sensors in these three models are widely different in performance. I would even look past the obvious Megapixel count rankings (22-31-40) and instead focus on per-pixel performance under quantum efficiency, readout noise, and long exposure dark noise [I've done this exercise myself]. By these metrics, the Pentax is somewhat ahead of the Hasselblad, which in turn is way ahead of the Mamiya. It happens that this correlates with megapixel count, but that is partially a coincidence - the sensor technology improvements which accompanied the drive to smaller pixels in MF sensors have also improved these other areas - most impressively in the area of dark current, less so in the area of readnoise and qe.
Ray