All else being equal, is one likely to see meaningful difference between 16X20 prints created from 30-31 MP vs a 39-40 MP file assuming that the only variable would be the pixel density of the back?
Probably not...
Hasselblad make backs of these resolutions, so you might be trying to decide between two backs for both of which you can use phocus, and which are both Anti-Aliasing filter free.
It can depend to some extent on what printer you want to use, and what is the default pixel density of your printer.
360 pixels per inch is about the optimum for Epson printers, and if you can print at 360 original camera pixels per print inch, then you will get the highest quality that your back and your ¿Epson? printer can produce, as there is no scaling.
20 * 16 inches @ 360 ppi requires 41 Mpx (assuming that your back has the same aspect ratio), so this might indicate that, if you are using an Epsom printer, the 39/40 Mpx back might produce noticeably better prints if you printed pixel to pixel and left a border or trimmed.
If you intend to use the back on a view camera, and will be using large movements, the 39 would be a good choice, as it has no micro-lenses, which improve ISO, but do not work well with large movements.
If you have a printer that uses roll paper, you need not worry about aspect ratio.