Canon 50D @ 15MP, will there be another 5D?

[dwdallam]

If the new 50D is a 1400.00 US camera at 15.1MP, how would a 5D2 be marketed in order to keep it from competing with the 1D or 50D market? I really can't see a new 5D in the future given the quality the 50D is putting out--a bit too soon to say that, but it looks very, very good. I mean I could see a 5D2 at 15MP with great low noise at high ISO and weather sealing at 3, 500.00 US, but then what happens to the 1D series? Would Canon even make another 3500.00 US FF camera w/o weather sealing? Remember what happened when the 5D came out and people were comparing it to the 1DSMK2 and saying--"If it weren't for the weather sealing, I'd buy the 5D . . . ." I know for certain, since I was friends with the office manger and assistant, that a Manhattan commercial photographer was using 5 5D's, after purchasing two MKII's--so pros did buy the 5D over the 1DS MKII after it came out.

Canon is strange.

[ihv]

I think it is just a matter of competition. Worrying too much about 1-series
would sink this ship, it's time to offer what others.

[soboyle]

When the 5D came out, the Canon flagship was 16 megapixels, so we may see the same relationship with the new 5D, perhaps a 20-21 mpix body. Canon is showing some teasers on their site, so we should know soon if it is a new 5D, or something else.

[dwdallam]

A 5D at 21MP would seriously hamper the 1DS3 I would think, unless it was a real dog. Think about this: If the 5D had come out weather sealed, what would have happened to the 1DS2? I'm thinking that since the 5D came out at the end of the 1DS2's lifetime, it did not impact the 1DS2 much, since all those who needed a 1DS2 already had one.

[httivals]

The 5D did not come out at the end of the 1DsII's life.  It came out 1 year into the 1DsII's lifetime.  We are now also 1 year into the 1DsIII's life.  Also, there's a lot more competition now from Nikon and Sony.  Canon would be stupid to limit the 5D specs based on it's own product line rather than based on the market as a whole.  Chances are the new 5D will seriously cannabalize the market for 1DsIIIs.  I expect the price for used 1DsIIIs to be at or  below $5k within a month of when the new 5D is on the market.  I also expect Canon to release a 1DsIV within a year if not by February.

I'm thinking that since the 5D came out at the end of the 1DS2's lifetime, it did not impact the 1DS2 much, since all those who needed a 1DS2 already had one.
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[dwdallam]

The 5D did not come out at the end of the 1DsII's life.  It came out 1 year into the 1DsII's lifetime.  We are now also 1 year into the 1DsIII's life.  Also, there's a lot more competition now from Nikon and Sony.  Canon would be stupid to limit the 5D specs based on it's own product line rather than based on the market as a whole.  Chances are the new 5D will seriously cannabalize the market for 1DsIIIs.  I expect the price for used 1DsIIIs to be at or  below $5k within a month of when the new 5D is on the market.  I also expect Canon to release a 1DsIV within a year if not by February.
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I completely agree. I think those of us who bought the 1DS3 got seriously taken. But if I can get 5K out of it after the 1dsIV comes out, I'll probably sell it and write off the loss on taxes for 2009. I think Canon stopped working on the 1DS3 t0o early and pushed it to market, just to make some fast money while they were working already on the MKIV. If the 1DS4 comes out in February, that will put the 1DS3 only at 1.5 years old! And I'm sure the ds4 will have dual digic 4 CPUs on board too. I'm quite sure it will have lower noise for higher ISO use too.

I bet the 5D come in at around 16-18MP with lower noise in high ISO than either the 1DS3 or the new 50D. If it has weather sealing, and comes in at around 3300US--what a deal! It will probably only have one digic 4 CPU.

It will be interesting to see what it really is.

[Josh-H]

I completely agree. I think those of us who bought the 1DS3 got seriously taken. But if I can get 5K out of it after the 1dsIV comes out, I'll probably sell it and write off the loss on taxes for 2009. I think Canon stopped working on the 1DS3 t0o early and pushed it to market, just to make some fast money while they were working already on the MKIV. If the 1DS4 comes out in February, that will put the 1DS3 only at 1.5 years old! And I'm sure the ds4 will have dual digic 4 CPUs on board too. I'm quite sure it will have lower noise for higher ISO use too.

I bet the 5D come in at around 16-18MP with lower noise in high ISO than either the 1DS3 or the new 50D. If it has weather sealing, and comes in at around 3300US--what a deal! It will probably only have one digic 4 CPU.

It will be interesting to see what it really is.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220273\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I am not having a personal go at you - but its a completely ridiculous statement to say that those who bought the 1DSMK3 got 'taken'.

Firstly - the 1DSMK3 is without doubt THE finest 35mm DSLR I have ever used - regardless of price. It produces stunningly good files with incredible detail. Its near bullet proof, virtually waterproof, rugged and reliable. I use mine on paying jobs regularly without hesitation, and if you look what other professionals are also using you will find many more of the same comments. Mine has been used in torrential rain, -11 degree celsius blizzards, high dust environments and its never missed a beat.

The rest of your post is pure speculation that does not conform with any part of Canons history of upgrading 1 series cameras.

In summary - stop worrying about what 'may' be coming out in the future - keep shooting with your 1DSMK3 - its a brilliant camera and mine will have to be prized from my cold dead hand before I let it go.

[JohnKoerner]

I agree about the weather sealing issue also.

At some point, the matters for consideration are going to become moot as to who has "the most megapixels" and will ultimately become who makes the better camera.

$3500 is enough to buy a decent used car for your kid, that will last another 5-10 years, so it ought to be enough to buy a solid new camera that will do the same.

It would be nice to see Canon establish a solid FF camera, with excellent craftsmanship from a long-term perspective. It doesn't have to have the speed of some of the others, nor the highest resolution either, it just has to have enough of these things to be attractive to anyone serious, while at the same time making someone believe its ability to perform will around for awhile.

I would like to see more of an emphasis placed on solid product quality myself, as opposed to another light-plastic gadget that leaks with a mid-range price tag.






.

[dwdallam]

I am not having a personal go at you - but its a completely ridiculous statement to say that those who bought the 1DSMK3 got 'taken'.

Firstly - the 1DSMK3 is without doubt THE finest 35mm DSLR I have ever used - regardless of price. It produces stunningly good files with incredible detail. Its near bullet proof, virtually waterproof, rugged and reliable. I use mine on paying jobs regularly without hesitation, and if you look what other professionals are also using you will find many more of the same comments. Mine has been used in torrential rain, -11 degree celsius blizzards, high dust environments and its never missed a beat.

The rest of your post is pure speculation that does not conform with any part of Canons history of upgrading 1 series cameras.

In summary - stop worrying about what 'may' be coming out in the future - keep shooting with your 1DSMK3 - its a brilliant camera and mine will have to be prized from my cold dead hand before I let it go.
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Again, I agree with your analysis. When I say 'taken' I mean that an 8K camera should have more than a 1.5 year lifespan between 8K upgrades that could make it much, much better--such as better ISO to noise ratio, and yes, a huge jump in MPs also. The next war aside from the ever warring MP issue is ISO and noise reduction, like the D3 points out. I've used ISO 1600 with the DS3 many times so far, and when you begin using ISO 1600, you get spoiled. I can only image what it would be like to use ISO 6400 and have the files be as useful and noiseless at the D3 is. Unlike having Photoshop to do everything a good photographer use to do, like even changing the direction of the key light by dodging and burning, having the option to shoot at ISO 6400 is a real creative advantage when using natural light.

And the 1DS3 can use ISO 1600, but only if you are aware that you will need to expose the images correctly. If you underexpose at 1600, you get grainy, muddy  images that don't push well at all, and that means using +1-2 stops, which really means you are only getting a shutter speed equal to ISO 400 at +0 compensation.

Of course if the light is right, you can nail the exposure at 0 compensation using ISO 1600, as long as the shadows are not too dark.

What would really pull me in is the ISO noise issue on the DSIV.

[Josh-H]

Again, I agree with your analysis. When I say 'taken' I mean that an 8K camera should have more than a 1.5 year lifespan between 8K upgrades that could make it much, much better--such as better ISO to noise ratio, and yes, a huge jump in MPs also. The next war aside from the ever warring MP issue is ISO and noise reduction, like the D3 points out. I've used ISO 1600 with the DS3 many times so far, and when you begin using ISO 1600, you get spoiled. I can only image what it would be like to use ISO 6400 and have the files be as useful and noiseless at the D3 is. Unlike having Photoshop to do everything a good photographer use to do, like even changing the direction of the key light by dodging and burning, having the option to shoot at ISO 6400 is a real creative advantage when using natural light.

And the 1DS3 can use ISO 1600, but only if you are aware that you will need to expose the images correctly. If you underexpose at 1600, you get grainy, muddy  images that don't push well at all, and that means using +1-2 stops, which really means you are only getting a shutter speed equal to ISO 400 at +0 compensation.

Of course if the light is right, you can nail the exposure at 0 compensation using ISO 1600, as long as the shadows are not too dark.

What would really pull me in is the ISO noise issue on the DSIV.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220478\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I understand the point that you feel an 8k camera should have a longer lifespan than 1.5 years [and IMO it will]. But also bear this in mind.

1. 'IF' [and its a bloody big IF!!!] Canon release a MK4 before the usual 3 year 1 series replacement cycle your MK3 wont suddenly blow up and stop working.

2. The MKIIIs will continue to go on producing stunningly good images for years and years to come.

3. Imagine how Phase P45+ owners feel? They dropped probably close to 30k-40k [depending on the country they bought it in] on their 39 MP back only to see phase announce a 60 MP back within 24 months! Thats progress I am afraid.

Here is the bottom line as far as I am concerned. Use the camera and use it often, its not a matter of if the MK3s will be updated - its simply a matter of when. Until that point and even then until I can actually hold one in my hands keep shooting and realise you are using probably THE best 35mm DSLR on the planet today. When the new model comes [note 'when' - not 'if'] then look at the option to upgrade. But dont worry or fret about it. Just enjoy the magnificient tool we have available to use in the 1DSMK3. Its a brilliant camera, a workhorse and a joy to use. Its the Lamborghini Gallardo of 35mm DSLR's - would you really want to drive anything else? :-)

[dwdallam]

I understand the point that you feel an 8k camera should have a longer lifespan than 1.5 years [and IMO it will]. But also bear this in mind.

1. 'IF' [and its a bloody big IF!!!] Canon release a MK4 before the usual 3 year 1 series replacement cycle your MK3 wont suddenly blow up and stop working.

2. The MKIIIs will continue to go on producing stunningly good images for years and years to come.

3. Imagine how Phase P45+ owners feel? They dropped probably close to 30k-40k [depending on the country they bought it in] on their 39 MP back only to see phase announce a 60 MP back within 24 months! Thats progress I am afraid.

Here is the bottom line as far as I am concerned. Use the camera and use it often, its not a matter of if the MK3s will be updated - its simply a matter of when. Until that point and even then until I can actually hold one in my hands keep shooting and realise you are using probably THE best 35mm DSLR on the planet today. When the new model comes [note 'when' - not 'if'] then look at the option to upgrade. But dont worry or fret about it. Just enjoy the magnificient tool we have available to use in the 1DSMK3. Its a brilliant camera, a workhorse and a joy to use. Its the Lamborghini Gallardo of 35mm DSLR's - would you really want to drive anything else? :-)
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Well, I can't argue with anything you said here, but my point is that if the ds4 comes out in February of 2009, and if it has better noise to ISO plus 40MP, then I wish my 8K would have been spent on THAT camera, not the DS3, even though the DS3 won't blow up. On the other hand, if I had to wait 3 years for the DS4, then buying the DS3 would have been acceptable, or even perhaps a full two years. But I just bought the 1DS3 in I think April, and even though I understand that's the technology, having bought an 8K camera 9 months before it's upgrade (if) is a bit depressing.

[giles]

If the new 50D is a 1400.00 US camera at 15.1MP, how would a 5D2 be marketed in order to keep it from competing with the 1D or 50D market?

You presume Canon care very much about their products not competing with each other; I wouldn't.

I expect Canon would prefer to have a nice balanced line up of models with regular price increments (to get as much money from you as you're willing to spend!), but if the choice comes down to you (and me, and others) buying some Canon DSLR other than the 1Ds-III or buying a non-Canon DSLR, well, that's an easy choice for Canon: one leaves Canon inventory on the shelf and cedes market share to a competitor; one makes Canon a profit.  Shareholders like profit.

But I just bought the 1DS3 in I think April, and even though I understand that's the technology, having bought an 8K camera 9 months before it's upgrade (if) is a bit depressing.

How I stopped worrying and learned to love depreciation? :-)

If it helps, tell yourself it could be worse, you could be "investing" in cars, which lose value even faster and cost more to run.

Giles

[Christopher]

Well, I can't argue with anything you said here, but my point is that if the ds4 comes out in February of 2009, and if it has better noise to ISO plus 40MP, then I wish my 8K would have been spent on THAT camera, not the DS3, even though the DS3 won't blow up. On the other hand, if I had to wait 3 years for the DS4, then buying the DS3 would have been acceptable, or even perhaps a full two years. But I just bought the 1DS3 in I think April, and even though I understand that's the technology, having bought an 8K camera 9 months before it's upgrade (if) is a bit depressing.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220500\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

That's life. It's the same everywhere. You buy Adobe CS3 now, you still have to pay for an upgrade to CS4 in two months. If you buy a car now and there is a newer version 9 months later you still have to drive you old one. What you have to learn is to know the market. When I bought the Mk3 I just bought one expect of two, because when looking at the competition it was very clear that the life span of this camera wasn't longer than 24 months. (I still think it will be around 18 months) So as backup I used my Mk2 and son will get the new 5D. There isn't to much magic in the camera market.

Oh and what will you say as soon as canon shows you the new 5D which supperpasses the Mk3 in many aspects and even is cheaper ;-)

[Paul2660]

"3. Imagine how Phase P45+ owners feel? They dropped probably close to 30k-40k [depending on the country they bought it in] on their 39 MP back only to see phase announce a 60 MP back within 24 months! Thats progress I am afraid."


It's a real mixed bag, the P65 is a big unknown for Phase.  New chip which has a history of noise issues even at lower ISO's.      You also have to remember that Phase does offer an upgrade policy.  I have not seen the quote yet on the P45+ to P65+.  In the past the upgrades were around 10K.  

Paul C

[stewarthemley]

...  New chip which has a history of noise issues even at lower ISO's.   

Paul C
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220557\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Not sure how a new chip can have a history of anything!

[Christopher]

Not sure how a new chip can have a history of anything!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220561\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

True. The only issue with that kind of sensor were longer exposures and for many that is not so important.

[dwdallam]

That's life. It's the same everywhere. You buy Adobe CS3 now, you still have to pay for an upgrade to CS4 in two months. If you buy a car now and there is a newer version 9 months later you still have to drive you old one. What you have to learn is to know the market. When I bought the Mk3 I just bought one expect of two, because when looking at the competition it was very clear that the life span of this camera wasn't longer than 24 months. (I still think it will be around 18 months) So as backup I used my Mk2 and son will get the new 5D. There isn't to much magic in the camera market.

Oh and what will you say as soon as canon shows you the new 5D which supperpasses the Mk3 in many aspects and even is cheaper ;-)
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If the new 5D comes in at 18+ MPs and offers everything the 1DS3 has, like sealing and speed, I'd say that the 1DS3 is finished as a selling product, has reached it's lifespan,  and watch for the DS4 to show up very soon. I seriously thought about waiting for the 5D, but everyone thought it would be out by now and at 16MPs. I would have bought one too instead of the DS3 most likely. As you say though, yeah that's life.

This Nikon vs. Canon thing reminds me of AMD and Intel in 2005. AMD knocked Intel so far out of the game it was impossible to see how Intel would recover. But they had so many patents and technology just sitting around that they did come back, less than a year alter, and knocked Intel out of the game, a game they still haven't come back to regarding PC CPUs. Timeline for new CPUs was around 2-3 years. In less than a year, Intel counterpunched with a completely new line of CPUs.

Nikon is pushing now. The D3 is no laughing matter with its high ISO low noise capability. They just released their first FF camera, and rumors have it that they will now compete with Canon at the MP level. I'm wondering if Canon will release all their wrath on Nikon, somewhat like Intel did to AMD now that their getting pushed? Less than a two year turnaround for the 1D series cameras, and the DS4 is slated anywhere from 32 to 39 MPs, with of course a variable pixel rate.

[Christopher]

If the new 5D comes in at 18+ MPs and offers everything the 1DS3 has, like sealing and speed, I'd say that the 1DS3 is finished as a selling product, has reached it's lifespan,  and watch for the DS4 to show up very soon. I seriously thought about waiting for the 5D, but everyone thought it would be out by now and at 16MPs. I would have bought one too instead of the DS3 most likely. As you say though, yeah that's life.

This Nikon vs. Canon thing reminds me of AMD and Intel in 2005. AMD knocked Intel so far out of the game it was impossible to see how Intel would recover. But they had so many patents and technology just sitting around that they did come back, less than a year alter, and knocked Intel out of the game, a game they still haven't come back to regarding PC CPUs. Timeline for new CPUs was around 2-3 years. In less than a year, Intel counterpunched with a completely new line of CPUs.

Nikon is pushing now. The D3 is no laughing matter with its high ISO low noise capability. They just released their first FF camera, and rumors have it that they will now compete with Canon at the MP level. I'm wondering if Canon will release all their wrath on Nikon, somewhat like Intel did to AMD now that their getting pushed? Less than a two year turnaround for the 1D series cameras, and the DS4 is slated anywhere from 32 to 39 MPs, with of course a variable pixel rate.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220759\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

As with Intel and AMD, Canon really was sleeping the last years. Sorry to say that but the new things from a Mk2 to a Mk3 for nearly three years was not much. I would more say nothing really. 8 Doesn't mean that there weren't improvments. There were some great ones, just not enough really.  So Nikon and Sony really pushed and I think Canon slowly is realizing that they have to push to keep up with them. I am quite sure that we will see a very stronge new 5D.

[dwdallam]

As with Intel and AMD, Canon really was sleeping the last years. Sorry to say that but the new things from a Mk2 to a Mk3 for nearly three years was not much. I would more say nothing really. 8 Doesn't mean that there weren't improvments. There were some great ones, just not enough really.  So Nikon and Sony really pushed and I think Canon slowly is realizing that they have to push to keep up with them. I am quite sure that we will see a very stronge new 5D.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220815\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Yea I agree with that. the 1DS3 was still on Canon's lazy cycle.

[Ray]

Yea I agree with that. the 1DS3 was still on Canon's lazy cycle.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=220967\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

DWdallam,
Stop crying into your beer. We've all experienced this issue of buying something at a price which is later superceded by something better and cheaper.

This is a game where patience has its rewards.