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Author Topic: Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700  (Read 13667 times)

Mort54

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« on: July 01, 2008, 10:20:29 pm »

Michael, as you noted, it's difficult to see just how all this will play out, and whether this marks a shift in Nikon strategy. One rather interesting development is that Thom Hogan, a well known Nikon industry watcher, and a fairly sober commentator on all things Nikon, has suggested there might not be a D3X, but rather a 24 MP D900. Basically something like a D700, except with the Sony 24 MP sensor, designed to shake up the photography landscape. It certainly isn't what most people are expecting, and if it came from anyone other than Thom I would poo poo the idea. But still, it's an interesting thought.

P.S. I don't think Thom is suggesting there won't be a full blown 24 MP full sized pro body, just that when Nikon does drop the 24 MP shoe, it'll first show up in something like a D900, with the big pro body to follow later, maybe as a next gen D4. All fun speculation, of course.

P.P.S. Thom's actual words: "I'm going to go a different direction: no D3x. Yes, a 24mp FX body, but it'll be the D900. This allows them to use the Sony sensor and bring it downscale to compete with the A900/5DII." Thom Hogan, speculating on Nikon's upcoming high MP offering.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2008, 10:43:29 pm by Mort54 »
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BernardLanguillier

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2008, 03:43:44 am »

Quote
...that Thom Hogan, a well known Nikon industry watcher, and a fairly sober commentator on all things Nikon, has suggested there might not be a D3X, but rather a 24 MP D900. Basically something like a D700, except with the Sony 24 MP sensor, designed to shake up the photography landscape. It certainly isn't what most people are expecting, and if it came from anyone other than Thom I would poo poo the idea. But still, it's an interesting thought.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=204911\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I suspect that Thom owes me a beer on that one.

Cheers,
Bernard

DiaAzul

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2008, 03:58:56 am »

I don't know how prices are elsewhere, but the D700 in the UK seems very expensive compared with the 5D (and also close to D3 prices). It will need heavy discounting to bring it into a reasonable price range relative to the rest of the market.

It is also be susceptible of being bracketed by Canon releasing a warmed over 5D (5000D?) for less than half the price of a D700 with full frame and same resolution and a higher priced full frame camera at 14-16Mpixels with better AF capability (xD at around same price or slightly higher than D700).

Seems we are approaching the last bets in the 2008 round of camera poker before the manufacturers show their cards.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 03:59:39 am by DiaAzul »
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alba63

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2008, 06:53:14 am »

I'd like to add the  following thoughts to Michael article:

Yes at first sight the d700 and d3 may seem a bit close to justify the price difference.

But I see it in the following way:

Right now a lot of people buy the D3 although they do not need the perfect pro body, just because it is Nikons first low noise camera and first FF. All those people accept the bigger size and weigth of the D3 in exchange for the FF.

THose people will - from now on - prefer the d700. The working pro's who want every possible support of the camera body to help them make their living every day will probably not hesitate to pay the extra price (deductible) in exchange for:
- a slightly bigger, brighter viewfinder with 100% instead of only 95% which allows for exact framing if needed.
- an apparently slightly tighter/ faster shutter for minimal shooting delay
- a built- in grip and a total camera size that is slightly smaller than the d700 with grip.
- probably a deeper buffer for long series of fast images
- more durability etc.

This will make it as it was probably meant: The d700 for the big number of "normal FF shooters", and the uncompromising (at the limit of the currently doable) D3 for those who need it or just want it for having the best, nothing less.

On the other hand, Thom's idea of bringing a compact d900 at 24MP would be - in my opinion and if it will not be more than 3999 - Nikons real strike of genius. They would hit 2 flies with one strike: They'd finally take all the thunder out of Canon (or wake them finally up from their sleep of a too long market- leadership), and defeat Sony's long awaited flagship with their probably much better camera body and same resolution. Maybe also better noise control, as in the past.

Funny that I never thought of that possibility, and just so good for the photographers to finally have a real choice.

regards
bernie
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 06:55:19 am by alba63 »
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Panorama

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2008, 09:47:07 am »

What I can't understand is why all you guys think that Nikon is

1) going to get the Sony sensor right away (or ever). why would Sony turn over it's most prestigious, high-end, flagship sensor to Nikon? What about it's market? Economies of scale is the only plausible, and visible, reason

2) going to be able to compete with the Sony camera on price  if it does get the sensor. If Sony sells it to a competitor it has to charge enough to make a profit.

3) disregarding Sony as a competitor. Sony clearly has a goal of moving up the ladder, and any gains can only come from Canon and NIKON markets

I have no idea what Sony will do, as in not a single clue. I'd just like to hear/read the justification, because some of it has become counter intuitive, to put it mildly.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 09:48:04 am by Panorama »
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JeffKohn

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2008, 10:07:09 am »

Sony's best sensors have always shown up in Nikon cameras first. I also think that looking at the D300/a700 it's pretty clear that Nikon and Sony are sharing tech and ganging up on Canon.

As for price I doubt such a D900 would cost less than Sony's upcoming flagship, but if it's even close that will be big news as most people have been expecting Nikon's high-res release to come in a D3 body priced somewhere in the $5-7K range.

If Nikon does release a D900 with the Sony chip instead of a D3x, I'll purchase it but that's not really what I'm hoping for. I'd rather see a true 14-bit sensor (maybe an up-rez'd version of the D3 sensor) than the 12-bit Sony part. I guess Nikon could do slow readout trick like they do on the D300.

I have my doubts about Thom's prediction though. I think Nikon has decided not to just take back some market share from Canon, they seem to be making a push to re-establish themselves as the best/premium brand.  They can't do that by leaving the 1DsMk3 uncontested as the premiere flagship.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 10:08:48 am by JeffKohn »
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bob mccarthy

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2008, 10:11:40 am »

The whole Canon/Nikon battle was easy to see from the financial news.

Canon did achieve an early lead and maintained the lead for a number of years. Nikon was asleep.

But they sat on their lead and only offered incremental releases from the D20/1Ds on.

Why???

They fell in love with TV.

I don't remember the specific date, but a few years back (3 or 4), I read a financial analysis on Canon entering the SED market with Toshiba. The jest of the report was Canon was going to invest many $B (yes billions) of dollars equivalents on infrastructure and experience many $B's of operating losses. The point of the analysis, was that the number was huge even for Canon. So they did what every corporation would do, they pulled funds from the other operating divisions where they could. Cameras were a likely target as they "owned" the DSLR market, so I'd bet R&D budgets were slashed to the core to help fund the TV market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface-condu...emitter_display

SED has had ups and downs with patent issues, etc, but it's a remarkable technology if they happen to win the TV wars.

Canon will redeploy funds if they feel threatened, but with the lag time, between R&D effort and release, it will not unfold quickly. Who knows they may have RIF'ed talent in both cameras and optics. They have many lenses in need of updating also.

Bob
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 10:12:36 am by bob mccarthy »
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BernardLanguillier

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2008, 10:17:10 am »

Quote
I have my doubts about Thom's prediction though. I think Nikon has decided not to just take back some market share from Canon, they seem to be making a push to re-establish themselves as the best/premium brand.  They can't do that by leaving the 1DsMk3 uncontested as the premiere flagship.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=205003\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

My bet stays on a D3x at Kina and a D900 1/2 year later.

Cheers,
Bernard

bob mccarthy

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2008, 10:18:55 am »

Quote
As for price I doubt such a D900 would cost less than Sony's upcoming flagship, but if it's even close that will be big news as most people have been expecting Nikon's high-res release to come in a D3 body priced somewhere in the $5-7K range.


[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=205003\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

The Sony flagship from the few pictures around, doesn't look like a D3/1Ds competitor anyway. It appears to be a two piece body aka D700.

Bob
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Mort54

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2008, 12:22:31 pm »

I'm personally hoping the rumored D3X, rather than the rumored D900, hits the stores first. And Thom's D900 speculation notwithstanding, I still think that's what will happen. Still, I think his D900 speculation is interesting.

As to why Sony would provide Nikon with early access to their 24 MP sensor, I've seen comments in the past that suggest Nikon helps with development costs, or at least contributes funds and design expertise to develop Nikon-specific features.

There is also the famous Nikon firmware gaffe, where a maintenance release of D3 firmware mistakenly contained menu text that seemed to be for the Sony 24 MP sensor. So we can be reasonably sure Nikon has a prototype body with the Sony 24 MP sensor in it. Of course, whether that version sees the light of day is yet to be seen. There are also very credible rumors of another Nikon prototype with an 18 MP sensor, of unknown origin. Nikon could choose to take the 18 MP version into production, rather than the 24. Time will tell.

As to whether the Sony 24 MP sensor will have a true 14-bit capability, I don't think we know enough to say if that's possible or not. The Sony 12 MP sensor used in the D300 had A/Ds on the chip, and Nikon made use of them to keep costs down. And perhaps the 24 MP sensor will also have on-chip A/Ds. But I would be surprised if the design didn't allow the on-chip A/Ds to be bypassed, to allow higher quality off-chip A/Ds to be used.
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Gellman

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2008, 03:05:23 pm »

I am a life-long Nikon guy who switched from Nikon to Canon when I went digital, upon the release of the Canon 10D. The change from film to digital was a no-brainer. The change from Nikon to Canon was hard. I’ve always preferred the Nikon ergonomics and way of operating a camera. I’ve never had a real second thought until now. Nikon is back with a vengeance.

For the work I do, 12 MP with a full frame sensor is the magic combination. I don’t really need any more pixels. What I want is better image quality at higher ISOs . The 5D was the first camera to really deliver on this and Nikon has seemingly surpassed the 5D in this respect with the D3, and I assume the D700. Nevertheless, 5D images seem to have a certain Zen about them. There is something about the look and feel of 5D images that hits me just right. For me, the major compromise in using a 5D is the lack of the same superior autofocusing system used in the 1D line. To their credit, Nikon has kept the same top-of-the-line autofocus in the D700 as in the D3. I will wait and see what Canon offers in the 5D MK II. I’m sure image quality will be terrific, and I’ll take any extra pixels they throw in, but it’s the autofocus system that will make or break the deal for me.

I realize that for some who have clients that demand the most exacting standards, anything less than 18 to 24 MP may not be suitable. But for many, the D700 and 5D MK II will be the sweet spot that fits our needs and is easier on our budgets.

I could easily see making a camera like the D700 or an improved 5D my primary tool. I like the smaller lighter body. Why carry around a heavy brick all the time when there is an option to add a battery grip with a vertical shutter release button when needed? The D700 is the first camera to come out that seems to meet every requirement that I would want in a camera, short of making toast and brewing coffee. It looks like a camera that is designed to truly resist obsolescence (to borrow a phrase from Sean Reid).

I hope Canon lives up to my expectations with the forthcoming 5D replacement. If so, I’ll happily stick with the Canon line. Otherwise, it’s time to give serious consideration to a switch back to Nikon. Either way, it’s nice to have Nikon back in the game. Photographers now have some really attractive choices between the products of these two flagship companies.  

Hopefully we are getting closer to the time when printer companies will offer such attractive choices in 13 and 17 inch desktop inkjet printers. But that’s another topic.

John
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RobertJ

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2008, 05:39:30 pm »

Another scenerio for Canon would be a slightly updated 5D (A 40D with 12MP full-frame, likely to disappoint many) and the release of a 21MP "EOS 3D", with most of the features of the D700, weather sealed, optional battery grip, high res LCD, etc...

At this point, I have no idea what Canon will do...
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eolake

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2008, 07:24:23 pm »

Quote
P.P.S. Thom's actual words: "I'm going to go a different direction: no D3x. Yes, a 24mp FX body, but it'll be the D900. This allows them to use the Sony sensor and bring it downscale to compete with the A900/5DII." Thom Hogan, speculating on Nikon's upcoming high MP offering.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=204911\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Mort, I can't find Thom's article saying this, can you point me to it, please?
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vandevanterSH

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2008, 08:17:53 pm »

Quote
Sony's best sensors have always shown up in Nikon cameras first. I also think that looking at the D300/a700 it's pretty clear that Nikon and Sony are sharing tech and ganging up on Canon.

As for price I doubt such a D900 would cost less than Sony's upcoming flagship, but if it's even close that will be big news as most people have been expecting Nikon's high-res release to come in a D3 body priced somewhere in the $5-7K range.

If Nikon does release a D900 with the Sony chip instead of a D3x, I'll purchase it but that's not really what I'm hoping for. I'd rather see a true 14-bit sensor (maybe an up-rez'd version of the D3 sensor) than the 12-bit Sony part. I guess Nikon could do slow readout trick like they do on the D300.

I have my doubts about Thom's prediction though. I think Nikon has decided not to just take back some market share from Canon, they seem to be making a push to re-establish themselves as the best/premium brand.  They can't do that by leaving the 1DsMk3 uncontested as the premiere flagship.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=205003\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

 
The D3-D700 sensor is a Nikon design and undisclosed fabricator...maybe Nikon has a 25MP, non-Sony, chip in the works.

Steve
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Howdy

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2008, 08:18:12 pm »

My pure speculation on Nikon strategy:  While the D700 might take away some D3 sales, it seems like a method to more quickly recoup R&D costs on both the D3 and the D300.  This, in turn, will allow Nikon to drop the price of all three cameras (D3, D300, D700) at about the same time as Nikon introduces the D3x and D900 (each with 24mp sensor).  That would allow Nikon to compete with the 5DII with both a lower priced, lower resolution alternative (the D700) and a higher priced (or same priced?), higher resolution alternative (the D900).  It would also position the D3 and D3x to be priced to compete with the 1DIII and 1DIIIs.
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Mort54

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2008, 08:42:14 pm »

Quote
Mort, I can't find Thom's article saying this, can you point me to it, please?
You can find his comment here:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=28477162
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Peter Gregg

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2008, 11:52:30 pm »

I would expect Nikon to follow what they did the first time. The D3 came out, Nikon had 6 months of back orders to fill at the higher price. Now the back orders are filled and the price is coming down on the D3. This means the buyers now are the true buyers of the camera. In the meantime there was a rush of people buying the D3 that included folks that should not have been buying the camera in the first place. A D700 would have been perfectly fine for them.

Nikon will probably follow the same business model again. A D3x selling out for 6 months at a higher price, bring that cash into the company, then release the so-called D900 for the people who should have bought that in the first place.

This put thousands of sales in Nikon's pocket at the release of both cameras. The Sony A900 will not kill the Nikon flagship, if it did, then it would also kill the Canon flagship. I think there is too much "internet wishful thinking" on the price of the Sony A900. Look at the price of the film cameras of the same bodies. The Minolta Maxxum 9 is not a cheap camera. And I don't think that Sony is wanting to be hostile towards Nikon either, if they choose that road it will open the door for Sony to lose Nikon as a client and open the door for someone else. If someone has you by the balls you either break free or die. I don't think Nikon is going to die.

Thom Hogan is not a business person par excellence. Forget the fact that these are cameras, then plot out a business strategy NOT as a skewed buyer, but as the seller. Most folks think like the buyer and want to say the companies are going to give away their stuff - lower is better. It's not. People who buy solely on price are not loyal at all, and Nikon has one of the strongest loyalty factors around.

My question is how much will the D3x be?? Will it match Canon's $8K, be higher because it can, or be lower to initiate possible crossovers? I think there will be a 6 month window for the D3x to rake in the cash, and then things may go the same way with a D900.

Peter
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JeffKohn

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2008, 08:23:48 am »

I agree with Peter. How many of the early adopters of the D3 would have chosen a D700 at its lower price if they'd had the choice at that time. Many of them bought the D3 not so much because they wanted the flagship pro body with 9FPS and all the other bells and whistles, but because they wanted a full-frame sensor and the D3 was the only offering from Nikon.

The same thing goes for people waiting for a 20mp+ camera. Some of them would prefer the flagship body, but there are probably quite a few more who would choose D700-style body if given the option. But if Nikon releases the flagship first they might not be willing to wait for the lower priced body.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2008, 08:25:41 am by JeffKohn »
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John Camp

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2008, 11:52:16 am »

I have a D3 that I bought in December, but wouldn't have bought if I'd known the D700 (at this spec and price) was coming this soon. The advantages of the D3 over the D700 are marginal for me, but the smaller size of the D700 is quite important. So, I'm an unhappy Nikon owner -- I feel like I paid too much for a camera that was not the best for me. I will not now buy the D3x, if it comes out first. I'll wait for the D900 - and if it doesn't show up, I'll just wait another generation.

I will say that the D700 with new digital-spec pro f4 zooms (14-24, 24-70, 70-200) would be a killer system, if Nikon ever comes up with new F4 zooms. Since the D3 chip works so well at high ISOs, I'd be more than happy to trade a stop on the zooms in return for the smaller size. The current f2.8 zooms are about as heavy as car batteries.

JC
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Howdy

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Some Initial Thoughts On The Nikon D700
« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2008, 12:55:48 pm »

The D700 suggests Nikon has figured out how to 'leverage' its R&D spending into a complete dSLR lineup.  The 'advance' of D700 is the neat amalgamation of the already completed D3 and D300 programs.

I think that we have now seen, for the most part, the 'specs' for both the D3x and the D900.  The former will be a D3 with a 24mp sensor, and the latter will be a D700 with a 24mp sensor.  If anything, the only other change in 'specs' will be a slower FPS to accommodate buffering the increased data load from the 24mp sensor.
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