In Medium Format with AF, there are now the following cameras left in play after Hasselblad announced the cancellation of the H2:
- Contax (inactive, all backs)
- Hasselblad (closed, Hasselblad backs only)
- Mamiya (active, all backs and their own)
- Sinar/Leaf/Rollei (launch stage, own backs only at this point)
The digital back companies are Hasselblad, Phase One, Leaf, and Sinar and Mamiya.
My predictions (not fact, not rumor, just personal analysis):
- Hasselblad revenues are going to continue to grow, and their system will improve markedly as they re-invest into software and firmware. Hasselblad can now afford to be commercially aggressive and have added resources for software R&D.
- Leaf have a new system, which can generate an upgrade revenue stream, but sales are going to be under pressure from Hasselblad
- Sinar remain a boutique contender but are in a good position to merge with one of the other players due to the Hy6 card. As a preliminary, they could choose to save some money by merging the R&D for their backs with Leaf.
- Mamiya will continue to act as an open platform for the time being, on the strength of the Phase and their own back sales which will be decent due to the price point. Note the accessible pricing of their lenses. It is clear that Mamiya has the ability to develop good products, while manufacturing and distributing at the lowest cost point in the market.
- Phase One are in a tough spot. They may have been a lead contender technically, but the other players now have them in a platform squeeze. A merger with some existing player or entrant seems increasingly likely.
In summary, I'd say the only "sure things" in the MF market are the inevitable growth of an increasingly aggressive Hasselblad, and the survival of Mamiya as the cheapest solution. Sinar, Phase and Leaf are playing musical chairs.