MF cartel broken - new pricing coming?

[eronald]

Thierry,

I have seen similar numbers.
I have seen numbers for the 35mm dSLR market that look quite a bit larger

Will you be in Paris this weekend ?

Edmund

Not only has the number of professional photographers shrunk, but as well the number of MF systems sold in the world, dramatically. There is also a serious study which put the figures of MF bodies sold in 2003 at some 20'000 units (worlwide), then 12'000 in 2004, 8'000 in 2005 and may be just over 5'000 in 2006.

Thierry
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122619\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

[alba63]

There is also a serious study which put the figures of MF bodies sold in 2003 at some 20'000 units (worlwide), then 12'000 in 2004, 8'000 in 2005 and may be just over 5'000 in 2006.

I guess there are several reasons for this:
- First, there are a lot of older but well working MF bodies/systems in the hands of the photographers who are interested in DBs. And pro shooters tend to keep what works, compared to amateurs who buy a new DSLR when it is available and has a few pixels more.
- Second: The uncertain direction in which the MF market will drift, makes interested photographers hesitate. The consolidation of the market and the tendencies of the manufacturers to create closed systems doesn't make it easier for the shooters.
- Third: The discussion led here makes clear that there only a small percentage of shooters can economically afford DBs (and find it a cheap investment), the others probably go along shooting their DSLRs, and hope that the next 1ds camera will bring them even closer.
- Fourth: Of course noone will buy a MF system today for film, so the DB pricing and number of sold MF systems are closely related. Should MF backs with the performance of currents lets say 22MP (not square) will be available for 8k or 9k, the number of MF systems may go up again.

A professional shooter with a well established business and good client base will still want and need the quality advantage, but those who would have a hard time affording such a system will hesitate 5x before going to get it.

30k for a camera with back is just *very* (!) expensive. Noone should be surprised that the numbers of sold systems go down like a rock. The price for a 5d + a couple of excellent lenses is just a small fraction (read: >20%) of that.

regards, Bernhard

[thsinar]

No, I'm not, why should I?

I am busy in Switzerland at Sinar this week, showing and testing the Sinar Hy6.

Thierry

Thierry,

I have seen similar numbers.
I have seen numbers for the 35mm dSLR market that look quite a bit larger

Will you be in Paris this weekend ?

Edmund
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122625\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

[thsinar]

Nobody can predict the future of MF, but given that we have come out with our camera is showing that we have hopes (if not certitudes) for this market.

As for a "bargain" MFDB: I can't answer this today, and better wait and see what happens.

Thierry

Interesting data Thierry.

Is there a forecast for these figures to keep shrinking?

Do you know if the Hy6 system will eventually offer a "bargain" dback?

There are speculations now, that Hasselblad may offer a CFV2.

Eduardo
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122622\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

[bradleygibson]

Not only has the number of professional photographers shrunk, but as well the number of MF systems sold in the world, dramatically. There is also a serious study which put the figures of MF bodies sold in 2003 at some 20'000 units (worlwide), then 12'000 in 2004, 8'000 in 2005 and may be just over 5'000 in 2006.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122619\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Wow, I had no idea the numbers were so low.

Back in the (film) days, a top-of-the-line film camera (1n/F5) sold in the low US$1000's, and a mf body went for approximately triple that.  One could see a similar price delta (again, very roughly 3x) between mf and sf in cost of lenses, film processing costs, etc.

Now that digital has arrived, I believe MF will continue to shrink to a small set of core afficionados, until/unless a similar price premium of ~3x is restored.  In the digital world, a very good small format body will set you back ~$3000, wheras (excepting this latest Mamiya announcement) medium format body + sensor is $20-30K (depending on sensor).

This is a 7-10x delta for the initial investment for mf vs sf digital.

Although it saddens me to see it, from this it is not surprising to me that so many photographers are migrating away from mf.

With so many fewer mf photographers in the fold, I doubt the numbers will return to 20,000 units sold per year any time in the near future.  But once the mf/sf delta is restored to a more reasonable premium, I would expect the diminishing trend to (slowly) stop, and even reverse, particularly if the MF offerings are competitive in other areas as well (e.g. AF performance, metering, lens selection, portability, service, etc.)

Very interesting discussion, everyone.

Best regards,
Brad

[Graham Mitchell]

Thierry, those figure are very interesting. What no-one seems to have pointed out is that the number of digital backs which sold last year is double the number of MF camera bodies. In other words, a lot of photographers must be using used bodies. It also doesn't take the increased rental trend into account.

[pprdigital]

Ronald ....

The price listed in the Mamiya USA press release are listed as street price ...not list.   So I am sure that is the US MAP.   From what I hear the margins that are being given to dealers are small enough that I doubt you will see much in the way of discounting from most sources.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122508\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I can most emphatically confirm this. While we are Mamiya dealers, the margins available to Mamiya dealers on the ZD aren't enough to support the level of support for these types of solutions require (14 months without a problem notwithstanding). We are currently considering ways to make this work.

The Value-Added Dealer argument has been beaten to death, but - one more gong of the bell - the moment you do need that support is the moment you completely forget about how much that support cost you, no matter how many consecutive months of good fortune you have experienced.

Steve Hendrix
PPR
www.ppratlanta.com

[thsinar]

That's correct, Graham! Look at the second-hand MF market.

Thierry

Thierry, those figure are very interesting. What no-one seems to have pointed out is that the number of digital backs which sold last year is double the number of MF camera bodies. In other words, a lot of photographers must be using used bodies. It also doesn't take the increased rental trend into account.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122650\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

[eronald]

I think there's the Paris MF meet, which is yearly, and where usually people come to show their wares. Of course, France is not an interesting market for Sinar.

Edmund

No, I'm not, why should I?

I am busy in Switzerland at Sinar this week, showing and testing the Sinar Hy6.

Thierry
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122632\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

[yaya]

I think there's the Paris MF meet, which is yearly, and where usually people come to show their wares.

Edmund
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[a href=\"http://www.leaf-photography.com/pages/News/events/technicinephot07_event.aspx]Leaf AFi at the Alber Khan Museum[/url]

[eronald]

Leaf AFi at the Alber Khan Museum
[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I see you are on top of things as usual, Yair !

Hope to see you there !

[a href=\"http://edsbloggertest.blogspot.com/2006/09/from-photokina-leaf-afi-camera-is-in.html]http://edsbloggertest.blogspot.com/2006/09...mera-is-in.html[/url]

Edmund

[yaya]

Long time since photokina eh?

Sadly I won't be in Paris this time (not in my territory)...

For sure we'll have other opportunities to meet

cheers

Yair

[nicolaasdb]

I never had a client asking me if I was shooting MF....they look at my images and like what they see and book me. When I was still shooting film I used MF because I liked the bigger brighter viewfinder and I loved the larger images on a contact sheet.
I switched to MF about 11 months ago (leaf 65) and like the fact that the images look like I am shooting MF film again. I think the price is way to high...but I also think that a Ferrari is overpriced (BUT would still buy one if I had the money!--don't have it because I bought a MF digital back and had to settle for a Porsche).....I still love to shoot with my Ds1MkII...it is superfast and the focussing is fast and always right on!...and the color are better right out of the camera....with the Leaf I have to do more....but the end result is better. not a lot better but enough...more information..even after heavy retouching.

Someone wrote about photographers buying equipment 20 years ago and never upgraded (updated) well I don't care what anybody says...but if you don't update/upgrade and you don't reinvest in your business...you are going to lose!! your clients and your business!! And now with the digital age you are going to lose even faster!! It sucks!! BUT it is the way it is! Since I went digital about 4 years ago..I have bought about 5 new computers, upgraded photoshop about 3 times and changed camera's 4 times..not to mention monitor calibration systems, raw developers and all the books that you need to read to stay current..cost me a bundle in money and time...but in the end the clients keep on coming back! it isn't easy for most of us to spend this kind of money, but to be honest...I kind of like all the new technology and can't wait for the next new gadget!!

[BernardLanguillier]

Not so simple. Almost all taxes are higher in Europe. That means that not only are we paying for higher VAT (~ 15-22% in Europe, compared to sales taxes of ~ 0-5% in US IIRC), but we are paying higher taxes on wages, raw materials, transportation, energy, etc. etc., in addition to higher social security costs, higher labor costs, higher financing costs, labor market rigidities, fewer working hours, less efficient financial markets, etc. etc. All of this compounds - snowballs - into the outrageous price differentials we see in cameras and other goods, differentials which can't be explained away by mere import duties or exchange rate differentials.

I wouldn't be surprised if Europeans pay higher margins on goods just because we're used to outrageous prices. But the main reason why everything is so expensive here is to pay for all the public goods through taxes. So, the next time you pay 100% more on a camera you can dwell on the warm and fuzzy feeling you get from the knowledge of providing for a public opera house, or the replacement liver for the guy who's dying due to 30 years of alcoholism.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122502\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Reflecting the impact of high production cost on a given market only is a business practise unheard of. There is zero reason why Europeans alone should pay for those higher company taxes.

By the way, I strongly suspect that companies doing business in the EU will soon be forced to get rid of their market segmentation stratetegies and will therefore have to allow EU customers to buy their stuff from the US if they please.

Anyway, if anything EU goods should be more expensive in the US now because of the strong Euro...

Regards,
Bernard

[Ray]

The cost of a state-of-the-art MFDB is about 10x the cost of a basic 35mm DSLR, such as the Canon 5D, is it not?

Hasn't a similar price differential always applied between 35mm film camera bodies and MF film camera bodies? What's changed?

[mcfoto]

Hi
I hate to be negative, but coming from an AD based perspective in Australia things are not well. I can truly understand why photographers elect not to buy into MFD. I actually think bugets have fallen in the last 7 years. Oh by the way our economy is in great shape, I was talking to someone in banking about whats going on & he feels there are different levels to the economy. Mining, oil & gas being the top. Hell if you bought oil @ $12.00  ( 1999) today it is worth $65.00 USD today, so if you put $100,000 down you would have $541,667.00 today not a bad gain. Rates have gone down in Australia since 2000 & digital has not helped. Clients thing it is cheaper to shoot digital? When I talk to fellow photographers here in Sydney they are lets say , NOT HAPPY. Almost all the wedding & portrait photographers have ditched MF period & have gone to DSLR ( Canon is the winner here ). We Use Leaf here & the ZD so I am a Mamiya user. One reason I use Mamiya is that it is an affordable system. I also use Canon. When I talk to photographers here most use DSLR & really unless we as photographers start making more money that will not change. Clients are expecting more for less money these days. When I read about MF dropping from 20,000/yr to 5000 in 4 years are we to be surprised. Please anyone from other countries tell me a better story. I am not complaining and I am telling you what I hear from fellow photographers, as we do a lot of talks around the country. In the past 3 years Contax & Bronica are train wrecks in the MF world. If anything this new ZD price will help MFD for all the players.
Denis

[KAP]

i agree. i have no problem with the prices of equipment at the moment. obviously i would like it cheaper, but for most profitable businesses this is not a major expense.
what i do have a problem with is gear becoming obsolute too quickly. if i knew that i could use the same gear in a competitive industry for at least 5-7 years i wont mind spending more.
when i started photography, there where plenty of photographers with 40k worth of 5x4 and 10x8 gear, but they had a lot of years of life out of the gear.

paul
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122334\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I think we all think that way, I could dive in with a P45 and system to mount it on, but knowing the main part of that system will be lagging behind a cheaper product before I've finished paying for the one I have is just to offputting. If I was shure it would be delivering what the market requires in 10 years time it makes sense. A system would cost me nearly £30k, if it can't generate at least £30k extra in the next 2-3 years it's a pointless investment.

Kevin.

[David Anderson]

The cost of a state-of-the-art MFDB is about 10x the cost of a basic 35mm DSLR, such as the Canon 5D, is it not?

Hasn't a similar price differential always applied between 35mm film camera bodies and MF film camera bodies? What's changed?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122769\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

No, not that much..

A few years ago a full kit of Canon 1V's, flashes all the L zooms and a couple other lenses cost maybe 25 % less than a medium format Blad kit with a couple bodies, a few backs and 4 or 5 lenses.
( Guessing- it was a while ago  )

Not so long ago a lot of pro photographers here in Oz ran both a 35 Kit and medium format and you use whatever was best for the job at hand.
Now I know a lot of the same guys are just shooting with one or the other.

With the price of the new Mamiya it might make sense to look at runng both again..

[Dustbak]

Hi
I hate to be negative, but coming from an AD based perspective in Australia things are not well. I can truly understand why photographers elect not to buy into MFD. I actually think bugets have fallen in the last 7 years. Oh by the way our economy is in great shape, I was talking to someone in banking about whats going on & he feels there are different levels to the economy. Mining, oil & gas being the top. Hell if you bought oil @ $12.00  ( 1999) today it is worth $65.00 USD today, so if you put $100,000 down you would have $541,667.00 today not a bad gain. Rates have gone down in Australia since 2000 & digital has not helped. Clients thing it is cheaper to shoot digital? When I talk to fellow photographers here in Sydney they are lets say , NOT HAPPY. Almost all the wedding & portrait photographers have ditched MF period & have gone to DSLR ( Canon is the winner here ). We Use Leaf here & the ZD so I am a Mamiya user. One reason I use Mamiya is that it is an affordable system. I also use Canon. When I talk to photographers here most use DSLR & really unless we as photographers start making more money that will not change. Clients are expecting more for less money these days. When I read about MF dropping from 20,000/yr to 5000 in 4 years are we to be surprised. Please anyone from other countries tell me a better story. I am not complaining and I am telling you what I hear from fellow photographers, as we do a lot of talks around the country. In the past 3 years Contax & Bronica are train wrecks in the MF world. If anything this new ZD price will help MFD for all the players.
Denis
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=122772\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Market is quite difficult over here as well. A recent study of the Fotografen Federatie (the largest 'union') revealed the average annual gross income of photographers in the Netherlands (mind you a top5 country of most wealthy countries per capita) is around 18K euros.

This says a lot.

I could not believe what I was reading when I saw it. I still have difficulties believing it is that bad. Even when this report is more negative than reality due to whatever reason it does indicate the state of professional photography is not flourishing.

I do find it very hard to aqcuire and retain clients.

Fortunately I don't hear the typical phrases like, 'Oh, but we do have a digital camera over here, so if necessary our secretaries assistant can do it as well.'

I think you really have to like doing this when keeping on working professionally.

[BernardLanguillier]

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