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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 107951 times)

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #340 on: May 21, 2018, 07:18:49 am »

The price of Tesla cars in Australia is ridiculous. They range from 92,070 to 211,200 Australian dollars. I recently bought a new car because my old Daewoo wagon was costing too much to service, after 17 years of use.
My new car is a Kia Cerato, a 2 litre, 4-door Hatchback with a 7 year, unlimited-kilometre warranty. It cost me only 20,000 Aussie dollars.

The mileage on my old Daewoo was 160,000 km. At a fuel consumption rate of approximately 10 km per litre, which is the claimed efficiency of my new car, that would translate to 16,000 litres of fuel over another 17 year period. At an average cost of, say, $1.30 per litre, the total cost of petrol over that 17 year period would be around $20,800.

In other words, I've will have paid $40,800 for a car which costs nothing to run, which is less than half the cost of the cheapest Tesla which excludes the electricity costs for each recharge and the eventual replacement of the battery.

The Tesla vehicle doesn't seem like a good economic proposition to me.  ;)
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #341 on: May 21, 2018, 08:00:41 am »

Making a mockery of the scientific process? Not at all. You seem to have missed the point again. Once a consensus has developed there is usually a strong resistance to that consensus being broken.

Resistance? A consensus in findings is about observations that happen to give similar outcomes. Observations do not resist. So it not clear what you are talking about, unless you think there is some kind of conspiracy amongst many thousands of scientists.

Cheers,
Bart
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #342 on: May 21, 2018, 08:24:54 am »

The Tesla vehicle doesn't seem like a good economic proposition to me.  ;)

But Tesla roof could be.

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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #343 on: May 21, 2018, 08:55:44 am »

But Tesla roof could be.

Yes. That's a great roof. It should also cost less to design a roof which incorporates solar panels, rather than adding the panels later. However, the current cost of batteries will probably result in rather expensive electricity.  ;)
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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #344 on: May 21, 2018, 09:01:09 am »

Resistance? A consensus in findings is about observations that happen to give similar outcomes. Observations do not resist. So it not clear what you are talking about, unless you think there is some kind of conspiracy amongst many thousands of scientists.

Cheers,
Bart

Not when the issue is beyond the application of the scientific processes of verification and falsification because of such a multitude of interactions, positive and negative feed-backs, enormous complexity, elements of chaos, long time scales for a consistent trend to be observed, and relatively poor and inaccurate proxy records from the past with which to compare the present climate.

As I mentioned before, the Technical summary of the latest IPCC report stated there was low confidence that floods, droughts and storms had been increasing during the previous 50 years or so, on a global scale. Floods, droughts and storms are major events, yet climate science observations are not even able to determine with confidence whether or not they have been increasing in recent times. What does that tell you?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #345 on: May 21, 2018, 10:32:32 am »

I agree, that if it was only cars, Tesla wouldn't stand much chance (compared with other established car manufacturers). Personally, I think their battery division has a much brighter future. Their Solar division has been also losing money, but with the new solar roof tiles they can tap into home construction in a big way. And put a Tesla car and one or two of their battery packs into each garage. The potential is there, and they are uniquely positioned to reap the benefits of all those synergies (as long as they won't run before out of money). Apple was once also in a very similar situation and until recently most analysts wrote off Tim Cook as an incompetent CEO.
I wouldn't buy Apple either.  They're a one-horse stable. 

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #346 on: May 21, 2018, 10:37:34 am »

. . .unless you think there is some kind of conspiracy amongst many thousands of scientists.

Cheers,
Bart

Maybe not thousands, Bart, but hundreds, and perhaps thousands. People who are more concerned with political power than with their science.
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PeterAit

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #347 on: May 21, 2018, 10:42:20 am »

Something for the deniers to read and digest, and for the rest of us to use as an educational tool.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-basic.htm

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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #348 on: May 21, 2018, 10:43:22 am »

I wouldn't buy Apple either.  They're a one-horse stable.
But what a horse!  BTW, Warren Buffet added just in the last quarter another 75 million APPL shares. He is known for value investing.
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #349 on: May 21, 2018, 10:55:21 am »

Something for the deniers to read and digest, and for the rest of us to use as an educational tool.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-basic.htm

A scientific "consensus," Peter? Sounds like an oxymoron to me. I guess I'm a "denier." That would make you a "true believer" or a "devotee" or a "disciple," or within that "scientific consensus" "orthodox."
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Alan Klein

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #350 on: May 21, 2018, 11:10:46 am »

But what a horse!  BTW, Warren Buffet added just in the last quarter another 75 million APPL shares. He is known for value investing.
  My wife agrees.  She owns Apple and always follows what Buffet is doing.  She's smarter than me.  :)

On the other hand, I always feel that Apple's one-horse stable is like playing musical chairs.  One of these days, the music is going to stop, and there won't be enough chairs for everyone to sit down. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #351 on: May 21, 2018, 11:13:57 am »

She is smarter than most of the investment analysts.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #352 on: May 21, 2018, 11:28:10 am »

Hi guys, All you "scientists" might be interested in an editorial in today's Wall Street Journal by Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental science at University of Virginia, who founded the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change.

Here's his final paragraph:

"Currently, seal-level rise does not seem to depend on ocean temperatures, and certainly not on CO2. We can expect the sea to continue rising at about the present rate for the foreseeable future. By 2100 the seas will rise another 6 inches or so -- a far cry from Al Gore's alarming numbers. There is nothing we can do about rising sea levels in the meantime. We'd better build dikes and sea walls a little bit higher."

The body of the article explains why this is so.

Oh dear. Another "denier," also known within the religion as an "unbeliever" or "infidel."
this is like quoting Lysenko on genetics.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #353 on: May 21, 2018, 11:34:55 am »

Or the fact that Tesla lost $20 billions in 15 years.
another false analogy.   Look at the savings from hybrid vehicles that use less gasoline and cost 1/4 of a Tesla
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #354 on: May 21, 2018, 11:38:07 am »

I still wouldn't buy Tesla or Amazon.  But I wish them well.  They are US corporations, and their success only makes America richer, stronger and more successful.   Maybe they will start paying taxes  too.
amazon pays lots of taxes and it's  too  bad you are not a shareholder,  you would be extremely wealthy
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #355 on: May 21, 2018, 11:43:15 am »

this is like quoting Lysenko on genetics.

I'm sure it seems that way to a true believer like yourself, Alan. After all, Singer is a "denier," also known within your religion as an "heretic."
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #356 on: May 21, 2018, 11:43:59 am »

I wouldn't buy Apple either.  They're a one-horse stable.
good that Warren Buffett has a different view on Apple than you do (disclosure,  I have owner Berkshire Hathaway for many years).  I think B-H may be one of b the largest Apple shareholders now.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #357 on: May 21, 2018, 11:46:45 am »

  My wife agrees.  She owns Apple and always follows what Buffet is doing.  She's smarter than me.  :)

On the other hand, I always feel that Apple's one-horse stable is like playing musical chairs.  One of these days, the music is going to stop, and there won't be enough chairs for everyone to sit down.
what you are missing is that Apple is an industrial design company first v and foremost.   All the b early technology originated at Xerox PARC and HP.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #358 on: May 21, 2018, 11:49:45 am »

I'm sure it seems that way to a true believer like yourself, Alan. After all, Singer is a "denier," also known within your religion as an "heretic."
there are always outliers in science who are never proven right; Singer is one of them.   The only platform he has these days is the Wall Street Journal.   It is pretty much equivalent to my posts here on LuLa,  the same amount of peer review.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #359 on: May 21, 2018, 11:50:13 am »

Not when the issue is beyond the application of the scientific processes of verification and falsification because of such a multitude of interactions, positive and negative feed-backs, enormous complexity, elements of chaos, long time scales for a consistent trend to be observed, and relatively poor and inaccurate proxy records from the past with which to compare the present climate.

You're trying to wriggle out of it, but it still doesn't make sense.

With complex dynamics, it is customary to make models that allow testing of those interactions without having to wait for them to happen. The procedure/model is peer reviewed and if almost all others arrive at the same conclusions, and find that the model is adequate, there emerges a consensus about the findings.

Quote
As I mentioned before, the Technical summary of the latest IPCC report stated there was low confidence that floods, droughts and storms had been increasing during the previous 50 years or so, on a global scale. Floods, droughts and storms are major events, yet climate science observations are not even able to determine with confidence whether or not they have been increasing in recent times. What does that tell you?

Exactly what they say in the report, that the (historical) data is lacking in some respects (e.g. measuring location had to be moved due to rising water levels, or urbanisation coming too close to avoid interference, or no prior measuring point available but now a new point has been made available for improved coverage and data quality going forward). Sometimes a new method of data collection is replacing a less accurate method. So there is no longer an exact 1:1 relationship between historical measuring locations and new measuring locations in the same area. That's all.

It seems like I still have to explain it, "confidence levels," tell something about the data quality and consensus that follows from those observations. You are presumably still thinking that it is the same as a likelihood, but that's something else (i.e. the probability of something happening).

The confidence level can be increased by e.g. more frequent observations or more accurate observations, or spatially more dense observations. This becomes easier now than it was in the past, because the quality of sensors is increasing, and the cost is often dropping, thus allowing to deploy more of them (where few or none were there before). The larger quantities also allow to more easily identify outliers, and its data can then be validated or rejected before being added to the final dataset.

Cheers,
Bart
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