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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 13883 times)

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #40 on: April 30, 2018, 09:29:04 AM »

Ray, as you say it's dificult to draw any reliable conclusions of isolated dietary studies with small samples. Even your hypothetical example with twins is not infallible, since there can still be multiple differences between the twins and their lifestyles (i.e. one lives in a house with hardwood floor and windows that can be opened, with a friendly and accommodating wife, whereas the other lives in an apartment building with sealed windows and thick broadloom, and went through three unhappy marriages).   

That's true, and that is why I wrote,".... and persuade them to lead, as far as possible, an identical lifestyle,"

For the experiment to be scientifically sound, one would need to recruit a large number of twins and conduct the experiment over a number of decades, perhaps 30 or 40 or even 50 years. If, during the course of the long experiment, it was observed that a few of the twin pairs diverged significantly in their lifestyles, one of them perhaps not physically exercising nearly as much as the other, or experiencing a lot more emotional stress than the other, then those twins would have to be excluded from the results.

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However, when comparing larger studies, i.e. effect of dairy intake in Scandinavia or New Zeeland, it becomes quickly obvious that the harmful ingredients in milk have some effect on bone health.
Sweden - annual dairy consumption 355 kg and 802 bone fractures,
Denmark - 295 and 853,
Norway - 261 and 563,
Finland - 361 and 440,
New Zeeland - 110 and 288
Mexico - 155 and 169

I don't think the above study is useful without more information about the lifestyles of the people included in the results, and details about how the information was collected. For example, what does a consumption of 355 kg of dairy products include. If person 'A' drinks one litre of milk per day, and takes no other dairy products, that still amounts to a yearly consumption of approximately 365 kg of dairy products. If person 'B' eats 1 kg of cheese day every day, and no other dairy products, then that represents a lot more energy than a litre of milk, but would still be described as a yearly consumption of 365 kg of dairy products.

There is also a significant anomaly in the above results you've quoted. Sweden with an annual dairy consumption of 355 kg and 802 bone fractures, and Finland with a slightly higher consumption of dairy products, 361 kg, yet a very significantly lower number of bone fractures, only 440.

That seems to me a very clear example that other significant factors are involved, which are not addressed in the study. Perhaps the major factor not addressed is the overweight and obesity problem.
The following study shows there is a strong connection between obesity, or simply being overweight, and the need for hip or knee replacement.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2267551/

If you were to check the overweight and obesity percentages in those countries listed in your study, which have low rates of hip replacement which seem to correlate with low consumption of dairy products, you'd probably find the obesity rates are significantly lower than they are in Western countries, although obesity seems to be on the rise everywhere.

I suspect that the real reason for the correlation between dairy consumption and bone fractures, is due to the over-consumption of dairy products and the over-consumption of meat and fat products. Too much of any type of food can be unhealthy. There have been instances of people even dying from drinking too much water in order to quench a serious thirst after running a marathon.

My personal view is that dairy products consumed in moderation are healthy. I always chose full-cream milk and prefer butter to margarine. I also eat natural and pure Yoghurt, unadulterated with sugar and other flavors, full-fat cream, sour cream, cheese, and coconut oil. I'm also as fit as a fiddle.  ;)
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 09:32:40 AM by Ray »
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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #41 on: April 30, 2018, 09:42:03 AM »

Let's just ignore what climatologists and other experts tell us. Let's just ignore the data & the explanations to account for it. What do these so-called 'experts' know anyway? I read something on the interwebz that reinforces my point-of-view, so however uncomfortable the facts are I'm going to deny them and instead grasp at any counter-claim as firm evidence that the matter is just a conspiracy by somebody. So there.

I'm fed up with science denialists, so how about we get back to photography? At least that's something we can all agree about. And Nikon is better than Sony or Canon.

According to that famous American theoretical physicist, Richard Feynman, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."  ;D
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2018, 09:47:31 AM »

+1, Ray -- by my favorite scientist. An ACTUAL scientist.

Chairman Bill

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2018, 10:08:47 AM »

According to that famous American theoretical physicist, Richard Feynman, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts."  ;D

Quite. Because science requires that scientists don't simply take someone's word for it, just because they're an expert, but instead they check the data, they replicate the experiments, they seek to disprove the findings, and when they can't, they tentatively accept the conclusions/theories etc. It doesn't mean the experts are ignorant, he was simply commenting on the tentative nature of knowledge and why we have the scientific method. But that's quite different from the ignorant dismissing the experts when they point us towards the science & the data.

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #44 on: April 30, 2018, 10:40:34 AM »

I realize that, Bill. But I really think he had a double meaning, which often he had.

BartvanderWolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2018, 11:02:03 AM »

Right, Bart. What those graphs tell me is that we're still recovering from the little ice age.

Hi Russ,

That's your interpretation, Science has a somewhat different opinion, based on research.

This introductory video shows some of the considerations (both pro and contra anthropogenic warming) that are the basis of the concern.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoSVoxwYrKI

The recovery mechanism since that temporary drop of between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius is relatively well understood. What is also known is that the forcings that caused the temperatures to rise again, are markedly different from what is causing the warming now (say since the last 50 years). Where changes in solar forcing (Total Solar Irradiance) caused that rise in the past, these factors are now mostly absent. They have been replaced (and then some) by CO2 emissions as the main feedback loop mechanism to raise temperatures. Without the excess CO2 from burning fossil fuel, we would probably have been experiencing a slight cooling now, rather than rapid warming.

The couple of degrees lower temperatures then caused famines and disease, because the crops were not able to adapt fast enough. The rising temperatures now are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, that it may be even harder to cope given the anticipated growth of the total world population. It's the speed of change that is perhaps even more alarming than the change itself.

A few degrees may not sound like much, but they could cause a feedback loop that spins out of control, especially since we keep on pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Even if we would stop now, it will take a while for the climate to reach a new equilibrium. Weather extremes and rising water levels will cause more food shortages than the extra CO2 enhanced biomass could produce.

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But I'd also be interested to know how we were gathering world-wide temperature data in 1880 compared with how we're gathering it now. Wouldn't you?

Well, it wasn't only done by measuring tree rings, there are various additional methods (e.g. levels of Carbon-14 and Berylium-10, the ratio of Oxigen isotopes in Carbonates, Ice core layers, trapped pollen in sediment layers, you name it) and they generally agree. So we can now reconstruct what they then could not measure as well as we can with our added capabilities of satellites etc.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 11:05:39 AM by BartvanderWolf »
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #46 on: April 30, 2018, 11:34:33 AM »

Hi Russ,

That's your interpretation, Science has a somewhat different opinion, based on research.


Cheers,
Bart

Right, Bart. Is that the same science and research that was predicting a new ice age in the fifties?

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2018, 12:02:59 PM »

+1, Ray -- by my favorite scientist. An ACTUAL scientist.
...and some of us who have contributed to these scientific discussions over the past several months are also actual scientists
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2018, 12:10:50 PM »

For anybody living between Toronto and Newmarket, on May 2nd at 7-9pm, there is a free movie by National Geographic / Leonardo DiCaprio about the effects of climate change at the Aurora Public Library.
All others can watch the 2 min. trailer, including some stunning cinematography.

https://aurorapl.ca/events/2018-05-02-190000-2018-05-02-210000/documentary-film-festival-flood

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2018, 12:11:08 PM »

Ray, as you say it's dificult to draw any reliable conclusions of isolated dietary studies with small samples. Even your hypothetical example with twins is not infallible, since there can still be multiple differences between the twins and their lifestyles (i.e. one lives in a house with hardwood floor and windows that can be opened, with a friendly and accommodating wife, whereas the other lives in an apartment building with sealed windows and thick broadloom, and went through three unhappy marriages).   

However, when comparing larger studies, i.e. effect of dairy intake in Scandinavia or New Zeeland, it becomes quickly obvious that the harmful ingredients in milk have some effect on bone health.
Sweden - annual dairy consumption 355 kg and 802 bone fractures,
Denmark - 295 and 853,
Norway - 261 and 563, 
Finland - 361 and 440,
New Zeeland - 110 and 288
Mexico - 155 and 169
 
In Far East Asia, the results are even more pronounced:
Thailand - 22 and 7 ?!
China - 29 and 97
the more affluent Asian countries showing slightly higher numbers:
Japan - 93 and 266
South Korea - 71 and 266

https://www.nature.com/bonekeyreports/2016/160629/bonekey201630/fig_tab/bonekey201630_T1.html
This data is highly misleading in terms of a correlation to dairy intake.  We know that hip fracture disproportionately occur in the elderly and more in women than men.  The Nordic countries have higher life expediencies and one would expect more hip fractures just because of this one factor (maybe slipping on snow and ice is also a contributing factor as well).  these countries also have very good health reporting because of centralized medical databases so reporting may also be more robust than in some other countries.  One also needs to take into account body type and bone length as well.  the trouble with any type of longitudinal data such as this is one can find multiple correlations many of which are meaningless.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2018, 12:42:43 PM »

This data is highly misleading in terms of a correlation to dairy intake.  We know that hip fracture disproportionately occur in the elderly and more in women than men.  The Nordic countries have higher life expediencies and one would expect more hip fractures just because of this one factor (maybe slipping on snow and ice is also a contributing factor as well).  these countries also have very good health reporting because of centralized medical databases so reporting may also be more robust than in some other countries.  One also needs to take into account body type and bone length as well.  the trouble with any type of longitudinal data such as this is one can find multiple correlations many of which are meaningless.

Alan, taking the higher age into consideration is a good point. However, Japan has even higher longevity that the Scandinavian countries, yet far fewer bone fractures. And it's not only hip fractures, I know several middle-aged Canadian women, who broke their wrists and form-arm bones.
 
If you want to learn about the latest breaktroughs on this subject, there is a very good and well researched book by Amy J Lanou and Michael Castleman, called Building Bone Vitality: A Revolutionary Diet Plan to Prevent Bone Loss and Reverse Osteoporosis--Without Dairy Foods, Calcium, Estrogen, or Drugs.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0026HPHXU/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb

Quote
For years, doctors have been telling us to drink milk, eat dairy products, and take calcium pills to improve our bone vitality. The problem is, they’re wrong. This groundbreaking guide uses the latest clinical studies and the most up-to-date medical information to help you strengthen your bones, reduce the risk of fractures, and prevent osteoporosis. You’ll learn why there’s no proof of calcium’s effectiveness, despite what doctors say, and why a low-acid diet is the only effective way to prevent bone loss.

"This clear, convincing explanation of osteoporosis will change the way the world thinks about bone health. Lanou and Castleman prove beyond doubt that milk and dairy are the problem, not the solution."
-Rory Freedman, coauthor of #1 New York Times best seller Skinny Bitch

"The authors have tackled an almost intractable myth: that calcium is the one and only key to bone vitality. It isn't. Everyone who cares about preventing osteoporosis should read this book."
-- Dr. T. Colin Campbell, author of The China Study

BartvanderWolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2018, 01:59:24 PM »

Right, Bart. Is that the same science and research that was predicting a new ice age in the fifties?

No.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_AtHkB4Ms

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 02:31:07 PM by BartvanderWolf »
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texshooter

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2018, 02:04:25 PM »

Global warming causes bone loss.  I'm sure it can be "proven."  It causes diabetes at the very least.

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-global-warming-diabetes-20170320-story.html

« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 02:36:02 PM by texshooter »
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #53 on: April 30, 2018, 02:39:20 PM »

Global warming causes bone loss.  I'm sure it can be "proven."  It causes diabetes at the very least.

Probably causes gas too.

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #54 on: April 30, 2018, 02:41:00 PM »

...and some of us who have contributed to these scientific discussions over the past several months are also actual scientists

Well, I'm really impressed, Alan. You knew that, didn't you?

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #55 on: April 30, 2018, 02:51:04 PM »

I want this thread closed down right now. Ray and I tried to keep this topic alive and failed.  Those who were responsible for the closing of that thread should not be allowed to raise the topic again. I'm completely serious about this!

I am reading it, which I confess I didn't bother to do with the thread you moderated, more out of a sense of duty than out of interest. If and when I consider that it presents a problem, I will take what appears to me at the time to be appropriate action.

Making demands or telling me what you want is not going to be any more effective than ordering me to do something (as you tried before), even if you go so far as to add italic to the bold face* and particularly if you do it inline in the thread itself. If you have a complaint about a particular post, in that it offends against the rules I set out in my first post as moderator or some other rule or code of conduct, use the "report to moderator" button and I'll look into it.

Jeremy

* "Counsel used bolded italics to make their point, a clear sign of grievous iniquity by one's foe." from Hyperphrase Technologies, LLC & anor v Microsoft Corporation, per Magistrate Judge Crocker.
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2018, 02:57:09 PM »

If you want to learn about the latest breaktroughs on this subject, there is a very good and well researched book by Amy J Lanou and Michael Castleman, called Building Bone Vitality: A Revolutionary Diet Plan to Prevent Bone Loss and Reverse Osteoporosis--Without Dairy Foods, Calcium, Estrogen, or Drugs.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0026HPHXU/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb

Well, I've certainly no intention of spending actual money on it, so I suppose I have to accept that I'll never know for sure, but the extracts I could read using Amazon's "look inside" feature strongly suggest that it's complete drivel. Another pointer to that supposition is that none of its ideas appear to have become widely accepted in the near-decade since its publication.

Jeremy
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #57 on: April 30, 2018, 02:59:24 PM »

Alan, taking the higher age into consideration is a good point. However, Japan has even higher longevity that the Scandinavian countries, yet far fewer bone fractures. And it's not only hip fractures, I know several middle-aged Canadian women, who broke their wrists and form-arm bones.
 
As one who did a bit of epidemiology from time to time when I was working in pharmaceutical regulatory affairs, the one thing we were taught on day one is that there are a lot of confounding variables in any given data set that looks at adverse drug reactions.  The same thing is applicable to the study that you originally referenced.  Population studies such as that one are very unreliable particularly if the correlation is to a single factor.  Clearly one can point to single factor adverse health events such as smoking and asbestos work but trying to link dairy intake to fracture number is really pushing the limit.

EDIT ADDED:  Also note that the paper you referenced only dealt with osteoporosis risks in East Africa linked to a lactase persistence genotype.  A lot of the references in the paper are quite old and I'm unsure about current research in the area in terms of identifying a linkage to dairy intake.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 03:06:30 PM by Alan Goldhammer »
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #58 on: April 30, 2018, 03:04:26 PM »

LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #59 on: April 30, 2018, 03:40:24 PM »

As one who did a bit of epidemiology from time to time when I was working in pharmaceutical regulatory affairs, the one thing we were taught on day one is that there are a lot of confounding variables in any given data set that looks at adverse drug reactions.  The same thing is applicable to the study that you originally referenced.  Population studies such as that one are very unreliable particularly if the correlation is to a single factor.  Clearly one can point to single factor adverse health events such as smoking and asbestos work but trying to link dairy intake to fracture number is really pushing the limit.

EDIT ADDED:  Also note that the paper you referenced only dealt with osteoporosis risks in East Africa linked to a lactase persistence genotype.  A lot of the references in the paper are quite old and I'm unsure about current research in the area in terms of identifying a linkage to dairy intake.

There are numerous new books on the osteoporosis which dispel the old myths. The authors of the book I recommended analyzed over 1200 studies.
Attached is an excerpt from the introduction to the book I mentioned in my previous post. Written by the well regarded Dr. Dean Ornish. You can look up his credentials.
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