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Author Topic: The PR war  (Read 5727 times)

BJL

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #60 on: May 15, 2018, 12:21:00 PM »

Yes, I agree.

But this is very very far from a company about to go bankrupt.
I in turn agree: a lot of the issues and poor profits at Nikon seem to be from sectors other than the interchangeable camera and lenses that we all know and love, like the decline of inexpensive compact cameras and the struggles of a separate Nikon subsiduary, Nikon Precision. And a lot of the recent losses or low profits seem to be from restructuring one-offs: in various ways, writing off investments and now surplus assets in those sectors, and reducing payroll by firing a lot of employees.


Onward to Nikon's brave new (somewhat smaller and mostly mirrrorless) future!
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hogloff

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #61 on: May 15, 2018, 03:37:28 PM »

I in turn agree: a lot of the issues and poor profits at Nikon seem to be from sectors other than the interchangeable camera and lenses that we all know and love, like the decline of inexpensive compact cameras and the struggles of a separate Nikon subsiduary, Nikon Precision. And a lot of the recent losses or low profits seem to be from restructuring one-offs: in various ways, writing off investments and now surplus assets in those sectors, and reducing payroll by firing a lot of employees.


Onward to Nikon's brave new (somewhat smaller and mostly mirrrorless) future!

Actually if you study the Nikon financials you'll notice revenue and profits are on the rise in the Precision Equipment business and are on the decline in the Camera business...their forecast indicates a continual decline for Cameras ( including profit ) and a continual increase for the Precision Equipment. They are also high on their Medical division.

IE:  Nikon is branching away from being a majority Camera company into other fields and has concerns about their camera division.
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BJL

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The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #62 on: May 15, 2018, 05:42:54 PM »

Actually if you study the Nikon financials you'll notice revenue and profits are on the rise in the Precision Equipment business ... They are also high on their Medical division.

IE:  Nikon is branching away from being a majority Camera company into other fields and has concerns about their camera division.
On the longer term, "Precision" has shrunk a lot (losing a lot of the chip-making equipment market to ASML, as has Canon) and "Camera" has become a larger proportion of the whole than it was a decade ago, so this might just be recovering a bit from a nadir in the previous year or two. And as I said above, a lot of shrinkage in "Camera" is in compacts, not interchangeable cameras and lenses.

Agreed about "Medical"; many camera makers seem to be targeting that as a profit growth area (Olympus and Ricoh-Pentax for example).
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hogloff

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #63 on: May 15, 2018, 07:09:28 PM »

On the longer term, "Precision" has shrunk a lot (losing a lot of the chip-making equipment market to ASML, as has Canon) and "Camera" has become a larger proportion of the whole than it was a decade ago, so this might just be recovering a bit from a nadir in the previous year or two. And as I said above, a lot of shrinkage in "Camera" is in compacts, not interchangeable cameras and lenses.

Agreed about "Medical"; many camera makers seem to be targeting that as a profit growth area (Olympus and Ricoh-Pentax for example).

Here are the actual numbers from Nikon themselves:


Year       DSLR cameras       DSLR lenses
2015      4,610,000             6,680,000
2016      4,040,000             5,900,000
2017      3,100,000             4,620,000
2018      2,620,000             4,010,000

Forecast for 2019 is another 11% decrease in revenue for the camera division with a 4% decrease in operating profits.

That's quite a drastic decline in 4 short years...and it seems to be continuing...where as the Precision Instruments business is projected to increase revenues by more than 20% along with operating profits increases.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #64 on: May 15, 2018, 07:13:30 PM »

Here are the actual numbers from Nikon themselves:

Year       DSLR cameras       DSLR lenses
2015      4,610,000             6,680,000
2016      4,040,000             5,900,000
2017      3,100,000             4,620,000
2018      2,620,000             4,010,000

Forecast for 2019 is another 11% decrease in revenue for the camera division with a 4% decrease in operating profits.

Looking at the high end (D850/D5 class) we care about here at LL would paint a very different picture.

Most of the decrease is in low end DSLR where marketing and sales tactics (see this very thread) are the main factor.

So we have different factors at play here, a global market saturation for IL cameras, a timid growth of mirrorless and, within the DSLR segment, a very agressive competitor (Canon) trying to sell low end bodies at any price since they know that they are weak in the high end against both Nikon and Sony.

Cheers,
Bernard

hogloff

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #65 on: May 15, 2018, 07:32:41 PM »

Here is a view of Nikon's market share over the last few years:

Year       DSLR share      DSLR lenses share
2015      34%                30%
2016      31%                28%
2017      26%                24%
2018      23%                21%
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hogloff

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #66 on: May 15, 2018, 07:40:00 PM »

Looking at the high end (D850/D5 class) we care about here at LL would paint a very different picture.

Most of the decrease is in low end DSLR where marketing and sales tactics (see this very thread) are the main factor.

So we have different factors at play here, a global market saturation for IL cameras, a timid growth of mirrorless and, within the DSLR segment, a very agressive competitor (Canon) trying to sell low end bodies at any price since they know that they are weak in the high end against both Nikon and Sony.

Cheers,
Bernard

Well Nikon's camera revenues have been dropping even more dramatically. With Nikon's view of the camera world and their projections of further drops in revenues...maybe Nikon will transform into a high end / priced niche camera manufacturer like Leica. If they are abandoning any hopes of the low end DSLR and leaving that to Canon...then all that is really left if the high end niche market...which by definition will carry a hefty price tag in order to financially make sense.

Yes...maybe Canon is out marketing Nikon...but that's the name of the game. There have been many better mouse traps that bit the dust because they could not properly market the better mouse trap to the consumer...and they died on the vines. Nikon used to be No.1 back in the older film days...then Canon came in and quickly erased that with both an on slot of innovative cameras and a great marketing campaign. Sony is trying to do the same...will that push Nikon down the chain to a niche provider...time will tell.
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BJL

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #67 on: May 15, 2018, 07:53:00 PM »

If they [Nikon] are abandoning any hopes of the low end DSLR and leaving that to Canon...then all that is really left if the high end niche market
That and the EVF camera system ("mirrorless") market! Though Nikon will be starting a bit behind Canon and well behind four other companies in that sector, and with Canon, Panasonic and Sony having considerable video-camera resources that can carry over to EVF still+video cameras.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #68 on: May 15, 2018, 09:53:37 PM »

Yes...maybe Canon is out marketing Nikon...but that's the name of the game. There have been many better mouse traps that bit the dust because they could not properly market the better mouse trap to the consumer...and they died on the vines. Nikon used to be No.1 back in the older film days...then Canon came in and quickly erased that with both an on slot of innovative cameras and a great marketing campaign. Sony is trying to do the same...will that push Nikon down the chain to a niche provider...time will tell.

At the end of the film days, Canon overtook Nikon thanks to more innovation and better technology both in terms of cameras and lenses. That's fair play and photographers benefit from this.

Nikon overtook again at the beginning of digital with the D1, but they were not able to maintain this lead due to poor choices in terms of sensor technology. Again, the early lead of Canon in digital thanks to FF CMOS was great news for photographers since they delivered a product that really helped. Fair play again.

Today it is very different. The innovation for photography is Nikon (at least in the DSLR domain) and Canon is trailing behind, yet they keep gaining market share. And it certainly looks like spreading FUD is a core sales tactics they are relying on. It may be naive, but I don't call this fair play.

Sony is of course innovating at yet a fast pace than Nikon in the mirrorless domain, but their monopoly should end very soon.

What Nikon needs to do is easy. They need to hire a real marketing team and to release a competitive mirrorless offering. I am not worried about the mirrorless, their camera will be competitive. I am a lot more worried for them about their ability to transform their marketing...

Cheers,
Bernard

chez

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #69 on: May 15, 2018, 10:20:41 PM »

At the end of the film days, Canon overtook Nikon thanks to more innovation and better technology both in terms of cameras and lenses. That's fair play and photographers benefit from this.

Nikon overtook again at the beginning of digital with the D1, but they were not able to maintain this lead due to poor choices in terms of sensor technology. Again, the early lead of Canon in digital thanks to FF CMOS was great news for photographers since they delivered a product that really helped. Fair play again.

Today it is very different. The innovation for photography is Nikon (at least in the DSLR domain) and Canon is trailing behind, yet they keep gaining market share. And it certainly looks like spreading FUD is a core sales tactics they are relying on. It may be naive, but I don't call this fair play.

Sony is of course innovating at yet a fast pace than Nikon in the mirrorless domain, but their monopoly should end very soon.

What Nikon needs to do is easy. They need to hire a real marketing team and to release a competitive mirrorless offering. I am not worried about the mirrorless, their camera will be competitive. I am a lot more worried for them about their ability to transform their marketing...

Cheers,
Bernard

I think there are so many times when you can strike out and come back. I believe Nikon is on its last swing of the bat. Having a great 850 just does not drive a company as big as Nikon. They need to shore up their declining revenues in their camera devision in the face of growing revenues in their other devisions. Where does one put their R&D into...a declining revenue division or one that is growing like their Precision Instruments or their future in Medical Instruments?

Iíve been involved in enough companies at the executive level to know how the wheels turn in their brains. Itís all about showing your share holders revenue and profits next year and a declining devision is not good news.

At least thatís my take on it. Nikon has one more kick at the camera can...or it might just be sold off.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war and Nikon's latest financial report
« Reply #70 on: May 15, 2018, 10:41:47 PM »

I think there are so many times when you can strike out and come back. I believe Nikon is on its last swing of the bat. Having a great 850 just does not drive a company as big as Nikon. They need to shore up their declining revenues in their camera devision in the face of growing revenues in their other devisions. Where does one put their R&D into...a declining revenue division or one that is growing like their Precision Instruments or their future in Medical Instruments?

Iíve been involved in enough companies at the executive level to know how the wheels turn in their brains. Itís all about showing your share holders revenue and profits next year and a declining devision is not good news.

At least thatís my take on it. Nikon has one more kick at the camera can...or it might just be sold off.

I don't share your views.

Having been in Japan for 20 years working with many Japanese companies, there is a sense of pride here that goes beyond rationale decision making. You are most probably right from a Western culture standpoint, but by that logic Nikon should have quit making cameras 3-4 times already.

Their current DSLR line-up is across the board superior to Canon's for photography and so is their lens line up IMHO.

Nikon has never been in a better position technically from a product standpoint against their traditional competitor and they are close to releasing their next gen mirrorless camera which should position them much better against Sony.

Why on earth would they want to quit?

Cheers,
Bernard

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #71 on: May 16, 2018, 12:25:20 AM »

Bernard, you heard of the seven stages of grief? I think you are still in the first one: denial😉

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #72 on: May 16, 2018, 02:02:13 AM »

I hope Nikon stay in the game. I hope Canon finally do something in the FF mirrorless sector. I was one of the guys that switched to Canon with the 1DS. Nikon had nothing like it. A group of local pros met with Nikon at the time. Some big deal guy was out from Europe to chat with us. He told us that FF was not a good idea and it was a marketing thing by Canon. He told us Nikon would not be going FF. Then they did. Annoyed a lot of us. I ended up shooting Canon for years until heading to Sony.

Now Nikon are once again playing catch up. Seems they are great at refining but not good at picking the really big trends. As in FF cmos and now digital. A lot of the pros I know are still with Canon after Nikons last poor decision. Now they have lost to mirrorless I suspect. A whole new lens mount on its way and anyone wanting to stay with Nikon has some big decisions to make.

They make great cameras, always have done, but something a little off n their communication and decision making.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #73 on: May 16, 2018, 02:30:53 AM »

Now Nikon are once again playing catch up. Seems they are great at refining but not good at picking the really big trends. As in FF cmos and now digital. A lot of the pros I know are still with Canon after Nikons last poor decision. Now they have lost to mirrorless I suspect. A whole new lens mount on its way and anyone wanting to stay with Nikon has some big decisions to make.

They make great cameras, always have done, but something a little off n their communication and decision making.

Yes, I couldn't agree more.

Cheers,
Bernard

BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #74 on: May 16, 2018, 02:33:46 AM »

Bernard, you heard of the seven stages of grief? I think you are still in the first one: denial😉

The way I see it, if Nikon goes down Canon should go down even faster. The reason being that the only truly valuable technological asset they have today is Dual sensor AF, and even that is not really much better than what Sony does now and what Nikon did 5 years ago with the 1 series.

And since that won't happen, I think the world is not yet on the verge of collapsing.  ;D

Cheers,
Bernard

fredjeang2

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #75 on: May 16, 2018, 06:20:13 AM »

I hope Nikon stay in the game. I hope Canon finally do something in the FF mirrorless sector. I was one of the guys that switched to Canon with the 1DS. Nikon had nothing like it. A group of local pros met with Nikon at the time. Some big deal guy was out from Europe to chat with us. He told us that FF was not a good idea and it was a marketing thing by Canon. He told us Nikon would not be going FF. Then they did. Annoyed a lot of us. I ended up shooting Canon for years until heading to Sony.

Now Nikon are once again playing catch up. Seems they are great at refining but not good at picking the really big trends. As in FF cmos and now digital. A lot of the pros I know are still with Canon after Nikons last poor decision. Now they have lost to mirrorless I suspect. A whole new lens mount on its way and anyone wanting to stay with Nikon has some big decisions to make.

They make great cameras, always have done, but something a little off n their communication and decision making.
Yep. Gone are my Nikons. A brand I use to love, specially D3 and D4 . But it's an industry where things are going fast
And everybody in my surrounding needs to deliver 4k as well. Nikon ignored that fact for too long.
The little they did was not serious enough and the crop factor was a bad joke.
At least Canon has a very good 4k with the 1dx mk2 although using an old codec producing huge files
But it stands still with Red in post.
Canon has been very protective because they sell video cameras, but Nikon had an open road they
Were not willing to exploit seriously. People switch to Sony or Fuji.
Pentax is another brand that missed the party too.
Altough they react, it's already a bit late.
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hogloff

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #76 on: May 16, 2018, 09:19:41 AM »

The way I see it, if Nikon goes down Canon should go down even faster. The reason being that the only truly valuable technological asset they have today is Dual sensor AF, and even that is not really much better than what Sony does now and what Nikon did 5 years ago with the 1 series.

And since that won't happen, I think the world is not yet on the verge of collapsing.  ;D

Cheers,
Bernard

Unfortunately Bernard, it does not always come down to who has the biggest stick, but has a lot to do with what one does with that stick. If Nikon cannot turn their revenue slide around...they will be forced into making more drastic decisions. Bottom line, Canon has been eating Nikon's shorts these past years...and mirrorless has taken off without any involvement from Nikon...so here it sits with a declining market share, declining revenues and in a need to restructure to keep alive.

They are also expanding in other areas that bring in the bucks, so we'll see how prominent the camera division will be to Nikon in 5 years. My view, it will be a much smaller contributor...if not totally removed by a sale to another company.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #77 on: May 16, 2018, 04:05:01 PM »

Unfortunately Bernard, it does not always come down to who has the biggest stick, but has a lot to do with what one does with that stick. If Nikon cannot turn their revenue slide around...they will be forced into making more drastic decisions. Bottom line, Canon has been eating Nikon's shorts these past years...and mirrorless has taken off without any involvement from Nikon...so here it sits with a declining market share, declining revenues and in a need to restructure to keep alive.

Iíll agree with you or disagree after they reveal their mirrorless offering. ;)

There is just no point in predicting their doom this close to what is likely to be their biggest annoucement ever (unless you are trying to convince somehone that buying into Sony mirrorless now is better of course  ;D).

Beyong the hype, the reality today is that Nikon provides oveall the highest performing cameras money can buy for general shooting (D850) and action (D5) while still being profitable in photography.

I think there are worse positions to be in.

Their focus on high end has been clear for a few years and they have executed perfectly along this strategy. I expect them to stick to this strategy in mirrorless as well and to execute very well there too. What it means in terms of the absolute size of their camera business is anyoneís guess.

The weak areas at Nikon are marketing/sales, inventory mgt and strategic decision making. I think that these are much easier to fix than poor engineering/manufacturing.

I certainly hope that Nikon succeeds in other domains such as medical devices also though.

As a final word, I also hope that Canon wakes up and delivers a mirrorless FF solution I would find exciting and appealing. That would be the first time in 10 years I would feel GAS for something with a Canon logo on it.   ;D

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 04:27:27 PM by BernardLanguillier »
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Telecaster

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #78 on: May 16, 2018, 05:11:03 PM »

I hope Canon and Nikon both put out compelling mirrorless systems. The more players, the better.

-Dave-
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NancyP

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Re: The PR war
« Reply #79 on: May 16, 2018, 08:27:05 PM »

I do think that it is a bit snobbish to dismiss the buyers of less-expensive DSLRs as being swayed only by advertising and fast sales talk, and to consider less-expensive cameras as an unimportant part of the overall camera market. There are buyers out there who are not satisfied by the fully automatic phone cameras but who can't afford or don't see the need for buying top-of-the-line "pro" grade cameras (D5, 1DXII, D850, A9, A7R3, or medium format). Maybe paying off student loans, saving for the children's education, saving for retirement, helping a financially needy family member, setting aside money for anticipated house repairs or car, taking a college course, going on a trip, and so on are better uses for money at the time for a lot of hobbyist photographers. The top of the line gear gives the last 5% of quality or permits some photos unobtainable with the usual 24 to 135mm equivalent range of mass market lenses (eg, night action photos with 400mm f/2.8 lens and top-of-line full frame camera). However, there's a heck of a lot of good photography that can be done with a basic APS-C DSLR and a cheap normal range zoom.
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