It seems like any medium format digital purchase is incredibly risky at the moment. After the news of the last year and from Photokina who knows what other shock announcements are possible?
-Kodak may decide MF sensors isn't a business with a future
-The new Hy6 may never reach production
-Even worse the Hy6 may be launched but then discontinued (in one or all of its guises) if it fails to reach viable sales levels, leaving owners high and dry.
-Phase One may get absorbed within Mamiya.
-As above, but Mamiya then goes bump and takes Phase One down with them.
-Canon's deeper R&D pockets may trump the MF quality advantage in the 35mm arena, finishing off the entire MF market.
-Pentax or Mamiya may uncercut MF digital prices to such an extent that Hasselblad and Sinar/Rollei/Leaf bail out.
If I sat down and scratched my head I'm sure I could come up with many more doomsday scenarios that would leave a photographer holding an expensive white elephant. Given all this uncertainty what's the smart photographer's strategy for digital medium format?
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the Hy6 was shown in several working variations at photokina, it is by far the safest product announcement i have heard in years....takes all lenses made for the entire 6000 system since 1974...even uses some of the same film backs as the 6000...it is a completely modular system...what more do you want?
mamiya did not buy phase or the other way around...
so if mamiya goes down it has nothng to do with phase....
i don't think canon even thinks about the MF market yet...they produce more rebels in a day then the entire MF industry produces backs in a year....but they will keep pushing upwards....but so will MF...
mamiya tried to "undercut" prices with the ZD...we see how that worked out....remember the kodak 14n? kodak treid to undercut canon with that one...we saw how that worked out....
MF has had the strongest signs of life in years...the backs are mature products, the mpix race has finally slowed down a bit, prices have come down....
a P20 will be offered at 7990 for any mount...that means a 16bit back producing files that are more then good enough for any commercial application is now the price of a 1DsmkII...with superiour imagequality...
if you look at film/processing expenses over 3 years, MF backs are a lot cheaper...even the absolut highest end....
the problem is that everybody thinks they need a P45...which is 4x5 sheet quality...nice to have but so not necessary...5 years ago people shot worldwide ad campaigns with 6mpix backs/cameras and now a P25 just does not cut it for weekend amateurs....the marketing machine has succeeded....
if you need the quality, it is more available now then ever in more mature products then ever...if this is a hobby...great for you that you can even think of spending 30000-50000 on a toy...but i guess you would ask questions like: is the Porsche just too risky? it will be worth half the price once you drive it off the lot....
a P45 will give you 4x5 quailty as long as you take good care of it adn it won't cost you a penny once paid off...no matter how many backs come after it, no matter how many pixels, how fast...
btw: kodak owns leaf (which uses dalsa chips)...just to add to your list...