Phase One in Trouble or Ready to Pivot?

[teamwiess]

This is something of a dangerous topic given the passions in this forum.  Let me note that I am a Phase One shooter and love my kit.  That being said, I have noticed some changes in Phase One's behavior lately that could portend an issue or could be absolutely nothing at all.  There has been speculation in this forum that Phase One is going to have to change dramatically given the recent improvement in lower priced medium format by coming out with a more reasonably priced solution or just give up on the non-institutional space and concentrate on "where the money is" by going exclusively institutional high end.

It is simple things that have me concerned given the speculation above.  One thing that Phase One does well is to market themselves and their users.  They do this via their blog and via video vignettes.  The blog continues to produce stories but the video series has not produced anything in five month when in the past they have produced one or two a month on average.  Similarly they have marketed PODAS heavily as a workshop option.  it is also used as a way for folks to actively try the new Phase One products.  Three months in to the year and the 2018 calendar is still waiting to be updated with nothing announced as far as I can tell.  Is this anything maybe, maybe not but these things are strange given the overall speculation.

Thoughts?  Or does anyone know anything that they can say something about?

[BernardLanguillier]

We can only hope that P1 comes up quickly with a mirrorless solution.

I am sure some here will disagree, but my view as someone who considered very seriously to buy one, is that the XF arrived too late and IMHO is too much of a dinosaur to survive long in this dynamic world of ours. It does have some neat features for sure, but is too much of a niche tool. The same can be said of the H6D-100c btw.

The next gen of Fuji GFX and X1D can't be that far off and will be based on 100mp sensors supporting high res/faster refresh EVFs and will have competitive AF across the frame and probably feature eye tracking technology. These seconde gen bodies are likely to resolve the issues found in the current generation and will be damn good cameras with great lenses line up and the possibility to adapt pretty much anything, including the lenses owned by BIG MF camera owners such as P1 owners.

100mp, even if it is on a 33x44mm small sensor, will cover 99.9% of all applications and the appeal of the XF based IQ1x0 will mostly be with Tech camera users... but then again, who really likes to use a tech camera? Only a handful of people really have to and they may find that an Actus is good enough.

The window of opportunity for P1 is becoming dramatically narrow unless they release their own version of a mirrorless camera at prices that will have to be one third of what they are used to selling for. How does that work with their high margin dealer selling model?

They have kept pretty much by themselves the MFDB market alive, so I sure hope they can overcome the current tough spot they are in. They certainly deserve so.

I would hate to see the large MF models go, they are IMHO the only ones that truly make sense compared to DSLRs in terms of look, but the advantages of mirrorless are just too many and much more significant that in the 35mm segment where the best AF remains DSLR based.

Cheers,
Bernard

[spassig]

Have P1 the Know-how to build a new camera body as mirrorless system?
The actually body come from Mamya.

Jochen

[Doug Peterson]

I wonder how many different “sky is falling” Phase One threads I could find over the last ten years. Annotating then on the (fully public) timeline of consistently increasing Team Phase One revenue, growing investment in r+d employees, new design lens releases, Capture One features, XF body feature updates, and “firsts” Digital back releases* could be fun.

No, the sky is not falling. And no, the core customer/market for Phase One had not changed to institutions; it was, it is; and it will remain the Pro photographer or serious enthusiast looking for the absolute best.

*first full frame 645, first 60mp, first 80mp, first modern CMOS, first 100mp, first Usb3, off the top of my head.

[jamgolf]

I've read this sentiment expressed numerous times i.e. 'Phase One must develop and release a mirrorless camera body' - I've thought about it and yet I don't understand or agree. What would that bring to the table for photographers? As Doug said Phase One released "first full frame 645, first 60mp, first 80mp, first modern CMOS, first 100mp, first Usb3 ..." etc. and I'd imagine they would focus on something impactful like the next 150MP sensor or maybe even the first sensor physically larger than 54x40 - or something like that.
Just my 2 cents.

[spassig]

Mirrorless > It would be a pleasure for landscape photographers (older) if they had to carry less weight. 

Jochen

[Ken Doo]

The forums are the last place I'd rely on for business information with regard to Phase One or the health of the medium format digital industry.  Sooooo much speculation, and sooooo many predictions of the demise of the industry and Phase One.  I photograph for the present---and like Phase One, the XF and Cambo WRS 1600 combination.  I also have a Fuji GFX.

That being said, if Phase One came out with a similar mirrorless system option (GFX), albeit more expensive----I'd dump my Fuji GFX in a heartbeat.

Ken

[Dave Rosser]

We can only hope that P1 comes up quickly with a mirrorless solution.


Cheers,
Bernard

I can't see a flapping mirror here

[digitaldog]

I wonder how many different “sky is falling” Phase One threads I could find over the last ten years.

FAR less than placing Adobe instead of Phase One in the above sentence. So what? As someone accused of being an Adobe shill for literally decades, just let it roll off your back. 

[JoeKitchen]

I can't see a flapping mirror here

Ha ha, plus one on that. 

Anyway, personally, until P1 fixes their massive lens cast issues with the higher MP backs, even present with the Rodenstock lenses, I doubt I'll be buying another back. 

I have hopes for the new 150 MP sensor, since Sony is announcing it will have higher acute angle response, but I fear any progress will be negated by the 50% increase in resolution. 

My hope is that P1 can convince Sony to make a 100 MP sensor with the newer technology and gear that towards us architectural and landscape photographers, just like they did with the IQ260's long exposure feature. 

[Jim Kasson]

I have hopes for the new 150 MP sensor, since Sony is announcing it will have higher acute angle response, but I fear any progress will be negated by the 50% increase in resolution. 

High hopes are warranted, since the 150 MP sensor has BSI:

http://www.sony-semicon.co.jp/products_en/news/detail/170301.pdf

Jim

[Bo_Dez]

I am poised to invest in a new system and was considering the XF100. The X1 came out of no where and has totally disrupted that plan. A 100MP X2D with all these new lenses is very enticing to me. The need for the XF is, I think, diminishing. It used to be easy to justify because that kind of camera was the only choice for a certain kind of quality.

I think the sky is falling comments are fair and not that far off what the camera industry seems to be going through. Watching Canon scramble for relevance compared with Sony relates to this too - the immediate future is mirrorless, it's a revolution. These comments have "always been around" but never before have there been cameras like the GFX and X1D which are offering almost the same IQ for much less. Phase One's King of the Hill IQ has never been challenged, even remotely, and now the gap is closing quickly and at a fraction of the cost.

Phase One went for the more is more approach - More pixels, more camera etc which is questionable at this point. They piled all their money into "more, bigger, best" but it's based on their success when it was really the only thing on offer for a certain kind of quality, and now these smaller cheaper alternatives give as much IQ as you likely need. People are redefining what "best" is. The XF now looks positively dinosaur sized, slow and cumbersome, the lenses are old designs and none really interest me. If you wanted that quality you were stuck with those lenses.

Where does the Phase One and the XF go from here? 150MP? 100MP is already at the point of diminishing returns and I can't imagine there are many actually care about 100MP v 150MP for double the cost or more of the alternatives and a bigger, slower less versatile camera based on an old paradigm. Upgrades in image quality to these cameras may be noticeable but are mostly unnecessary at this point anyway.

I'm almost certain I will be buying the X2D. My guess is it's going to be a an incredible camera that will make something like the XF redundant - this is coming from someone who has used these sort of cameras in an industry where they are standard and my colleagues mostly agree too. I think the H will likely go the same way but hang in a bit longer because it's part of the ecosystem - it might even sell more. They had that VD concept at last Photokina so it's clear they have a future worked out and and it turns out they've been nothing short of visionary.

With the Hasselblad X - you're not even settling for less. It's a really incredible piece of industrial design and manufacture. I can see it becoming "the best". I think it's almost already over and I hope Phase have something up their sleeve because it would be a shame to see them fall.

[Bo_Dez]

I wonder how many different “sky is falling” Phase One threads I could find over the last ten years. Annotating then on the (fully public) timeline of consistently increasing Team Phase One revenue, growing investment in r+d employees, new design lens releases, Capture One features, XF body feature updates, and “firsts” Digital back releases* could be fun.

No, the sky is not falling. And no, the core customer/market for Phase One had not changed to institutions; it was, it is; and it will remain the Pro photographer or serious enthusiast looking for the absolute best.

*first full frame 645, first 60mp, first 80mp, first modern CMOS, first 100mp, first Usb3, off the top of my head.

True, and those firsts were impressive but Fuji and Hasselblad were the first to offer this sort of camera and that is what is relevant today.

[Bo_Dez]

I can't see a flapping mirror here

It's not the same thing. Not even close.

[ErikKaffehr]

Hi,

100 MP on a platform built for 100 MP at 44x33 mm makes an awful lot of sense to me.

Best regards
Erik

I am poised to invest in a new system and was considering the XF100. The X1 came out of no where and has totally disrupted that plan. A 100MP X2D with all these new lenses is very enticing to me. The need for the XF is, I think, diminishing. It's a bigger task to justify now. That kind of camera was the only choice for a certain kind of quality.

I think the sky is falling comments are fair and not that far off what the camera industry seems to be going through. Watching Canon scramble for relevance compared with Sony relates to this too - the immediate future is mirrorless, it's a revolution. These comments have "always been around" but never before has there been cameras like the GFX and X1D at such a reduction in cost which are offering almost the same IQ for much less. Phase One's King of the Hill IQ has never been challenged even remotely and now the gap is significantly closing, quickly, and at a fraction of the cost.

They went for the more is more approach - More pixels, more camera etc which is questionable at this point. Phase One piled all its money into "more, bigger, best" but they did that at a time when it was really the only thing on offer for a certain kind of quality, and now these smaller cheaper alternatives give as much IQ as you likely need and probably more. The XF now looks positively dinosaur sized, slow and cumbersome, the lenses are old designs and none really interest me. If you wanted the quality you were stuck with those lenses.

Where does the Phase One and the XF go from here? 150MP? 100MP is already at the point of diminishing returns and I can't imagine there are many actually care about 100MP v 150MP for double the cost or more of the alternatives and a bigger, slower less versatile camera based on an old paradigm. Upgrades in image quality to these cameras may be noticeable but are mostly unnecessary at this point anyway.

I'm almost certain I will be buying the X2D. My guess is it's going to be a an incredible camera that will make something like the XF redundant - this is coming from someone who has used these sort of cameras in an industry where they are standard and my colleagues mostly agree too. I think the H will likely go the same way but hang in a bit longer because it's part of the ecosystem - it might even sell more. They had that VD concept at last Photokina so it's clear they have a future worked out and and it turns out they've been nothing short of visionary.

With the Hasselblad X - you're not even settling for less. It's a really incredible piece of industrial design and manufacture. I can see it becoming "the best". I think it's almost already over and I hope Phase have something up their sleeve because it would be a shame to see them fall.

[Christopher Arnoldi]

No one seems to mention that the Phase One system is the only system with leaf shutter lenses (AND works with Capture One).
And the new Schneider Kreuznach 150mm LS f/2.8 IF is the only lens I know with nearly no cat eye effect. The 150 mm HC lens is f3.2 and the XCD 90 mm is f3.2.

And only with a Back you can work properly with a technical camera like my Sinar p3 with the superb Rodenstock eShutter lenses.
IMO most studio work can be done best with a big and solid Sinar p3 with IQ3 100 with a big compendium and tilt, shift and swing at the same time in all directions.

[Doug Peterson]

True, and those firsts were impressive but Fuji and Hasselblad were the first to offer this sort of camera and that is what is relevant today.

Since the X1D and GFX launched we've sold more XF kits than in the period before.

More companies doing more things in medium format raises interest in medium format. Since P1 has the most complete and powerful full-frame 645 solution (IQ back, XF body, Capture One software, wireless control and review, leaf shutter lenses, professional dealer support, wide rental availability, digital tech familiarity, training classes, rapid service, 5-year warranty) so they benefit enormously from that increased interest. In other words, when it comes to medium format, a rising tide lifts all boats big and small.

I love board games so an analogy would be that there are lots of recreation activities; the fact that we are in a board game renaissance with lots of companies selling good board games is helpful to every company in that market. The enemy of a board game maker (Phase One) is not another board game maker (company raising interest in medium format) it's video games or movies (small format cameras, iPhone). It's not a perfect analogy, but maybe it's useful to explain the market dynamics here. Fuji making the GFX helps P1 sell XF bodies. Not the opposite. To make it less an analogy and more direct: we have had numerous people schedule appointments to play with an XF in our NYC and LA offices over the last year, who called specifically because they were exclusively small-format shooters who started looking into medium format solely because of the GFX but once they started researching found Phase One and wanted to see what the difference was before they bought the GFX; some of those people bought GFX and some of them bought XFs, but none of them would have even thought to look into medium format before the GFX. So many people wrongly assume "costs $50k" and are genuinely shocked when they find they can buy a Phase One kit for $10k. Phase One is a very small company compared to Canon, or Nikon, or Sony, or Fuji; they can't reach that many total users as those companies do.

This board is full of the people who have been steeped in medium format for, in some cases, decades. It's the new users that grow the market. It's precisely those users this medium format renaissance is bringing in. It's freaking great. I talk with someone every week who is being brought into the world of medium format, and is talking to me (a Phase One guy) because once you're in that world (whatever brand piqued your interest originally) you take a look around.

Between this huge increase in medium format interest writ-large, and the enormous amount of money Phase One has funneled into R+D projects (those that have already manifested and those that are yet to come) you really couldn't have picked a worse year to make a seemingly-annual "the sky is falling" post.

Mirrorless cameras with a 1.3x crop medium format sensor* are a more recent camera category to be born than mirrored medium format cameras. But saying their advent makes all medium format cameras with a mirror irrelevant is, well, silly. I'm very glad this nascent category exists. A lot of great things can be done in that category. I'm not at all convinced they all got done in the first couple bodies in the category, but that is usually the case when an entirely new category of cameras is born. But even in their nascent form they represent a great option for a specific set of needs, wants, and budget.

Truly, photographers of 2018 are blessed with many very very good options across a huge range of needs, wants, and budgets. Phase One has laser focus on serving the top of that pyramid; the ones for whom image quality and feature set matter more than being able to fit the camera in their jacket pocket, the ones that, in the film era, shot 4x5 (or 8x10, or ULF) or an RZ or a Contax 645. Some of those film-era users hated every second of using such cameras and did it kicking and screaming because they felt forced by the need for a specific amount of image quality for a specific client or a specific print size. Some of them did it because they wanted the absolute best and were willing to make some compromises (e.g. size/weight/cost) to pursue it. Neither of those mentalities is right or wrong; every photographer is different. Extrapolating from your own wants, needs, and budget is less useful to analyze the total market demand than you'd think.

And for what it's worth, if you're looking for a compact extreme-image-quality camera and autofocus isn't critical then it's really hard to beat a P1 IQ3 100mp on an Arca Factum, Cambo 1600 or 400, or Alpa STC or TC. It's a very different camera than an X1D or GFX and will be much better in some kinds of situations and much worse in others. The difference in image quality is not subtle; the IQ3 100mp provides the best image quality you can buy and provides built-in and wonderfully tactile movements. The difference in autofocus (decent vs none) and EVF (decent vs none) is also not subtle. Again, very different cameras.

*Of the kind with autofocus, an integrated EVF, and SLR-ish handling. As opposed to a Phase One back on a tech camera, which is also "mirrorless" but lacks those things.

[Bo_Dez]

Since the X1D and GFX launched we've sold more XF kits than in the period before.

More companies doing more things in medium format raises interest in medium format. Since P1 has the most complete and powerful full-frame 645 solution (IQ back, XF body, Capture One software, wireless control and review, leaf shutter lenses, professional dealer support, wide rental availability, digital tech familiarity, training classes, rapid service, 5-year warranty) so they benefit enormously from that increased interest. In other words, when it comes to medium format, a rising tide lifts all boats big and small.

Mirrorless cameras with a 1.3x crop medium format sensor* are a more recent camera category to be born than mirrored medium format cameras. But saying their advent makes all medium format cameras with a mirror irrelevant is, well, silly. I'm very glad this nascent category exists. A lot of great things can be done in that category. I'm not at all convinced they all got done in the first couple bodies in the category, but that is usually the case when an entirely new category of cameras is born. But even in their nascent form they represent a great option for a specific set of needs, wants, and budget.

Truly, photographers of 2018 are blessed with many very very good options across a huge range of needs, wants, and budgets. Phase One has laser focus on serving the top of that pyramid; the ones for whom image quality and feature set matter more than being able to fit the camera in their jacket pocket, the ones that, in the film era, shot 4x5 (or 8x10, or ULF) or an RZ or a Contax 645. Some of those film-era users hated every second of using such cameras and did it kicking and screaming because they felt forced by the need for a specific amount of image quality for a specific client or a specific print size. Some of them did it because they wanted the absolute best and were willing to make some compromises (e.g. size/weight/cost) to pursue it. Neither of those mentalities is right or wrong; every photographer is different. Extrapolating from your own wants, needs, and budget is less useful to analyze the total market demand than you'd think.

And for what it's worth, if you're looking for a compact extreme-image-quality camera and autofocus isn't critical then it's really hard to beat a P1 IQ3 100mp on an Arca Factum, Cambo 1600 or 400, or Alpa STC or TC. It's a very different camera than an X1D or GFX and will be much better in some kinds of situations and much worse in others. The difference in image quality is not subtle; the IQ3 100mp provides the best image quality you can buy and provides built-in and wonderfully tactile movements. The difference in autofocus (decent vs none) and EVF (decent vs none) is also not subtle. Again, very different cameras.

*Of the kind with autofocus, an integrated EVF, and SLR-ish handling. As opposed to a Phase One back on a tech camera, which is also "mirrorless" but lacks those things.

I didn't say SLR's were irrelevant. I do think mirrorless cameras are what is relevant right now and probably increasingly so. But you make some interesting points and in time we shall see.

I am one of those people who shot Mamiya RZ, Fuji GX-680, 4x5 an 10x8 in the film days for the reasons you mention. Big cameras are necessary when they are the only thing that gives you the results you need. I'm also someone who has been renting the XF100 extensively this last year while testing it and waiting to make a decision on replacing my 160. The back and sensor is incredible. I think the camera is good too but it's enormous and there are other alternatives to consider now. If you consider that the camera needs only to be as big as it needs to be then that puts it in to perspective. It's not so much about "fitting it in your pocket" but other things such as flying with it on airplanes.

[hubell]

The history of photography and the equipment used for it shows an inexorable movement in the development of smaller and lighter cameras for producing the highest quality imagery. The inescapable fact is that nobody WANTS to carry around a kit consisting of an XF an assortment of BR lenses. You would only do it if you NEED to do it in order to achieve the image quality you are after. And with the advent of the X1D and the GFX,  many are deciding that they no longer need to carry a kit of the size and weight of the XF to achieve that image quality. This process will only accelerate when the new versions of the X1D and the GFX appear with the 100mp sensor. I do think Phase is at risk of marginalizing itself into the equivalent of the high end audio companies that sell tube amps for breathtaking prices, justifying it on the basis that it offers the last 1% improvement in audio performance.

[Bo_Dez]

I hand hold cameras all day long. I am used to doing that with the Hasselblad H and RZ too. If I can have a camera the size of the X1D to do that with I will be a happy man. Lower shutter speeds, smaller lights, quicker working, more responsive.