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Author Topic: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others  (Read 4418 times)

BJL

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In an attempt to move this discussion to a more appropriate place than the thread
What is Sigma up to?, here is Thom Hogan's speculation, based on some inside  sources I think:
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/nikon-mirrorless-rumors.html

In summary: he expects an initial launch in the 24x16mm "DX" format with about three lenses in a few months' time, followed later this year by offerings in 36x24mm "FX" format. So rather less ambitious than Bernard Languillier's predictions/hopes, while expecting 36x24mm format to arrive sooner that I have been predicting.
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Two23

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2018, 09:49:04 PM »

This all makes sense to me.  What I'm wanting is a small system, mostly for travel.  I'm not really interested in "FX" unless the price is reasonable and the lenses are small.  If Nikon made a mirrorless FX camera the size of their F3HP or the Leica IIIc I would definitely be interested in that!


Kent in SD
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2018, 04:45:59 AM »

Makes sense. After the debacle of the "1" system, they are now catching up with Canon, Sony, and Fuji, who have mature APSC MILC systems.

armand

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2018, 06:07:28 AM »

The question is, for somebody who has already invested in Fuji or Sony APS-C, what would be the incentive to buy the Nikon?

kers

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2018, 06:27:56 AM »

I think it would be a good idea to combine a mirrorless Nikon with a curved sensor.
If Nikon can achieve that it would make lenses smaller and better, exactly what this system would need.

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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2018, 06:30:57 AM »

Makes sense to start with APSC. A few things need to happen to make it attractive to me in the long run. I would want to see a roadmap to FF. lenses would need to be able to be used on the FF same as Sony. Dedicated small lenses for the APSC format would need to be recognised by the FF as the Sony does and the FF lenses must fit on APSC. Flashes must work across the system.

Actually thatís a lot of work for Nikon. Essentially two new systems with flashes and lenses working together with a working range of lenses. A huge job.
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scooby70

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2018, 06:56:52 AM »

The question is, for somebody who has already invested in Fuji or Sony APS-C, what would be the incentive to buy the Nikon?

I'd say none.

There seem to be people here wanting and hoping Nikon can do something really special so they can banish any thought of having to suffer a Sony/Fuji/Panny/Oly and I just don't get it but maybe not caring who makes the kit or what the name on the kit is does put me in a minority on camera forums :D
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Chairman Bill

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2018, 08:09:14 AM »

I'm a Nikon DSLR user, but I also have an X100s. I've been thinking about maybe an XPro2 or XT2 as a more flexible replacement for carrying in the mountains. The reason I'd prefer a Nikon is the investment I have in Nikon lenses.

DP

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2018, 08:27:14 AM »

The question is, for somebody who has already invested in Fuji or Sony APS-C, what would be the incentive to buy the Nikon?

for example - some people have enough money to have fun ...  plus it depends what do you call by investment ? I can't imaging anybody investing any serious amount of money in lenses and still using Sony _APS-C_ (not FF;D ...  with Fuji it is easier to imagine, but not with Sony APS-C...
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armand

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2018, 08:13:27 PM »

Well, I was out today in some less friendly conditions in Iceland shooting with both Fuji and Nikon. As the weather wasn't pretty I kept the lenses I started with, the 55-200 F4.5-4.8 on Fuji X-T2 and the 24-120 F4 on Nikon D750, both handheld and tripod, but mostly tripod. The weather was bad and the tripod way flimsier than what I hoped. At the end of the day I have significantly more usable shots (as in sharp enough) on the Fuji, and not just because of the more favorable focal length. For various reasons I couldn't get the Nikon to compensate for the suboptimal conditions despite having a clearly better sensor and the advantage in resolution (less pixel density which in their should be more tolerable to shake and requiring less sharp lenses). I probably would have been better with another X-T2 with the 18-55/ 16-55 instead of the D750 with 24-120. Or maybe even the E-M1ii with 12-100.

The reason I used the Nikon with the 24-120 was because I trusted it would not likely fail in that weather (was also snowing). So far the 55-200 is holding but I took some chances.

Two23

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2018, 08:30:17 PM »

1) At the end of the day I have significantly more usable shots (as in sharp enough) on the Fuji, and not just because of the more favorable focal length. For various reasons I couldn't get the Nikon to compensate for the suboptimal conditions despite having a clearly better sensor and the advantage in resolution (less pixel density which in their should be more tolerable to shake and requiring less sharp lenses).

2) The reason I used the Nikon with the 24-120 was because I trusted it would not likely fail in that weather (was also snowing). So far the 55-200 is holding but I took some chances.


1. If I remember correctly, the Fuji has in-body stabilization?  Also, what I found when I went to the Nikon D800E is it was far less tolerant of even the slightest shake because the 36mp magnified it.  Last time I was in Iceland at one point I was taking photos at the base of a glacier.  The wind was coming off it so hard that I ended up abandoning my Gitzo 1325 tripod and simply lay on the ground with elbows firmly planted on the ground to take photos.

2. The weather I routinely encounter on the Northern Plains is much more extreme than what's seen in Iceland.  I've not had trouble with any Nikon gear and that's going back to the good old N90s.  (I have had two camera and three lenses damaged when left unattended on a tripod and 60-70mph wind gusts blew them into the next county though.)


Kent in SD
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armand

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2018, 08:30:56 PM »

What I'm trying the say are several things.
1. Top of the line in Fuji is competitive with the mid DSLR from Nikon. If Nikon gets a demoded mirrorless to preserve their DSLR they will fail. They need something at least as good as the Fuji. Than it will my next point and the fact they have Bayer and not X-trans which I think it only complicates things.
2. They need good versatile lenses. Their APS-C line up is why I bought into the Fuji system despite starting on a Nikon APS-C.
3. Their lenses should include some with WR as well as their body. I'm not sure it's a good idea for then to compete both on APS-C with Fuji/Canon and full frame with Sony and possible Canon. Without a full frame mirrorless they will fall behind.
4. This is as BTW, Fuji G format will only get cheaper and with few lenses it might not be that much more expensive.

armand

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2018, 08:36:02 PM »


1. If I remember correctly, the Fuji has in-body stabilization?  Also, what I found when I went to the Nikon D800E is it was far less tolerant of even the slightest shake because the 36mp magnified it.  Last time I was in Iceland at one point I was taking photos at the base of a glacier.  The wind was coming off it so hard that I ended up abandoning my Gitzo 1325 tripod and simply lay on the ground with elbows firmly planted on the ground to take photos.

2. The weather I routinely encounter on the Northern Plains is much more extreme than what's seen in Iceland.  I've not had trouble with any Nikon gear and that's going back to the good old N90s.  (I have had two camera and three lenses damaged when left unattended on a tripod and 60-70mph wind gusts blew them into the next county though.)


Kent in SD

Fuji has no IBIS yet.

I got more sharp shots with Fuji. Laying on the ground would have been the best option but I need the higher point of view. Basically I tried both with OIS on/off and the Fuji did better. And shouldn't have had.

BJL

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2018, 09:37:11 PM »

The question is, for somebody who has already invested in Fuji or Sony APS-C, what would be the incentive to buy the Nikon?
It is still the case that the great majority of ILC owners have an SLR but no mirrorless; in fact SLRs still sell in higher numbers than mirrorless bodies. So I doubt that current Fujifilm/Sony owners are a high priority as potential customers for the next Nikon mirrorless system. The time has probably come for Nikon and Canon to work on keeping owners of their SLRs from switching to another brand for the sake of going mirrorless.

There are also all the first-time ILC buyers, who are sometimes overlooked in these discussions. They are a big reason why Nikon probably needs one entry-level priced "DX" format body, along with the higher spec. gear that people in this forum are more interested in.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 09:40:31 PM by BJL »
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2018, 01:28:00 AM »

I have read Thom's post also. I assume he is pretty sure about his forecast and that we can consider it a fact.

I personally find this disappointing, and it seems that a majority of posters at Nikon rumors would also have preferred a FF offering according to an on-going survey.

We'll see what they come up with, but I don't see myself investing into an APS-C body at this point in time.

Me investing in an a9r after it is announced is the likely next move. Bye bye Nikon... ;)

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: February 01, 2018, 05:26:19 PM by BernardLanguillier »
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2018, 06:23:46 AM »


There are also all the first-time ILC buyers, who are sometimes overlooked in these discussions. They are a big reason why Nikon probably needs one entry-level priced "DX" format body, along with the higher spec. gear that people in this forum are more interested in.

Exactly. For example, take the entry level Rebel DSLRs from Canon, that sell really well because they provide good quality and are really cheap. Similar story with Nikon. They can not afford to replace their Rebels with a less-attractive-to-first-buyers MILC; can they make a price competitive entry-level MILC?

Canon have their EOS M line up, but it still sells less than the Rebels. Nikon no doubt has some good indicators from that.

DChris

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2018, 03:52:17 PM »

My only comment regarding Nikon and Canon and the rumors of them making a true mirrorless interchangeable lens camera and lens system, is, it has to be 35mm FF, with a complete proper pro series of native 1.2 and 1.4 prime lenses, and a lens roadmap.

They need to pull a "Fuji" only better.

Otherwise I will not be interested.


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DP

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2018, 04:51:10 PM »

it has to be 35mm FF, with a complete proper pro series of native 1.2 and 1.4 prime lenses, and a lens roadmap.

They need to pull a "Fuji" only better.


you mean "m43" - because "Fuji" does not have complete proper pro series - m43 does  ... 
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armand

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2018, 05:50:21 PM »

you mean "m43" - because "Fuji" does not have complete proper pro series - m43 does  ...

You made me curious, what exactly is Fuji missing as "pro" lenses that m43 provides?

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon's next mirrorless system: speculation from Thom Hogan and others
« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2018, 06:53:27 PM »

You made me curious, what exactly is Fuji missing as "pro" lenses that m43 provides?

Probably the super tele?

Cheers,
Bernard
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