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Author Topic: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?  (Read 2001 times)

narikin

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2 years ago Phase stunned us with a well kept secret: 100mp Full frame CMOS IQ100  (I think even their dealers only found out a few days before)
and then... they shipped it that same week!!  (I got mine 8 days after the announcement, impressive!)

Might a surprise launch be repeated this January?! W know the sensor is coming, and it must have been sampling for a little while now, so...



 
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Smoothjazz

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2018, 03:51:09 PM »

That's what I am waiting for!!!
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matted

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2018, 04:23:39 PM »

Would be nice, but I think the Trichromatic was released to help bridge the gap to 150... if this is true then it is likely too soon  :(
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2018, 05:10:12 PM »

I don’t see why P1 would have made all that marketing noise with their Trichromatic back if a 150mp version were around the corner.

What P1 needs to compete with Hasselblad is a mirrorless line up. Whatever marketers say, P1 has fallen significantly behind in technology compared to the X1D. It is an easy guess that the H7D will be using the same mirrorless tech which would make a XF based 150mp back mostly irrelevant for many applications.

Besides, I would be surprised if many people upgraded just for an extra 50mp. At least I know I won’t. That would simply have close to zero value for actual photography.

So what’s most probably holding up P1 isn’t the sensor (although Sony may be late), it is the complete redesign of pretty much everything, which is what Hassy has been doing in the past 3 years with their X1D mirrorless platform. You can’t do this overnight.

It is interesting to compare the amount of blame Canon and Nikon are getting for not going mirrorless vs Sony to the embarrassed silence surrounding P1. ;)

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 06:09:19 PM by BernardLanguillier »
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Bo_Dez

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2018, 05:25:17 PM »

I agree, Phase One is in a precarious position right now with the entire Medium Format world shifting to Mirrorless. Also, considering the H6D-50c is half the price of the XF and IQ50 and the H6D-100c a far better deal relative to the IQ100, that leaves Phase One in a hot mess of a situation with very little to justify the difference in cost. That difference is going to shrink even more as Hasselblad improve Phocus.

Phase One need to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

A mirrorless, to compete - come on drop that Mamiya 7D already!

AND they need to get competitive with an XF-50 that is priced at an entry level price - they could nip their demise in the bud with this alone. It would buy them some time, get them a new user base and give them some much needed capital to compete with the mega Giant DJI. My local Electronics store sells DJI drones in the windows, they have become a major global player with a lot of cash and are accelerating by the day - don't underestimate how 1) quickly this could shift to Hasselblad being the main player and 2) how quickly Phase One could go out of business entirely.

Wake up Phase One, before it's too late!
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 05:35:14 PM by Bo_Dez »
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hubell

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2018, 06:49:21 PM »

I would not sell Phase One short. I fully expect Phase to come up with a very competitive product by Photokina. There are an awful lot of talented people at Phase.
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narikin

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2018, 09:17:56 PM »

Agree with most of the above.

Yes the trichro launch has probably been timed to bridge a gap, but its not going to generate that many new sales. Very high price premium over the regular 100Mp, plus people who have the IQ100 aren't going to side-grade to the Trichro in any meaningful numbers. I have the resources, tried one for a weekend, and saw no convincing reason to do so, but... will jump to the 150 almost certainly.

Agree about the need for Phase to have a Fuji/Hassy competitor. At the moment those being 'only' 50mp, is whats stopping people like me from crossing over to them - the drop from 100 to 50mp, is too much, and not compensated by their ease of use, and modern features. *Yet*.

I have no doubt Phase can do an MF mirrorless solution, but its whether the will is there. They seem to feel the XF is the bees knees. News flash: it's not. (Yes, I own one) It's a clever camera, but is big, heavy and very dated in its concept. The lens range is crazy expensive too. Yes it has some clever software in there for sure, but it remains a 1980s style capture device. They need a mirrorless solution with its own lens range, not an adapter to use XF Blue Ring lenses - that will not do - they are computed for a mirror box design, and are far too big and heavy.

At the moment things are ok for Phase, but when 100Mp Fuji/Hassy arrives later this year... then they will hit a real bump. A 150Mp flagship is great, I'll probably jump to that, but the bigger market share will be with clever mirrorless MF.  A 100mp Fuji or Hassy with great tech and lenses, will be on my radar for sure, and may mean my 12 years with Phase come to an end.

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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2018, 10:05:08 PM »

I would not sell Phase One short. I fully expect Phase to come up with a very competitive product by Photokina. There are an awful lot of talented people at Phase.

I totally agree, I am sure they will come up with something great, but they have a lot of catching up to do.

The thing is that a 150mp XF would most probably be compared to a 150mp H7D that will either be EVF only or at least have a EVF option. This would be easy to do for Hasselblad since they have the platform in place already. They also have the experience with the lenses, it wouldn’t be hard to release for a start a 110mm f2.0 HM lense (H mirrorless) while remaining compatible with the existing H lenses... ;)

Cheers,
Bernard

pschefz

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2018, 10:15:12 PM »

not sure how phase will be able to compete....the tri chrome back is a novelty niche back in a niche market.....i am sure it is good and has its unique place but in the end it all comes down to price....not only because lower cost sells more but because more sales considerably lowers cost and so on....
considering what fuji and hasselblad were able to do with an "old" sensor, really challenging existing 50mpix systems in price and features.....the 100mpix models will be on a completely different level.....i am expecting AF performance (for example) that mirror based systems won't be able to compete with...add a really unique look for video (something of a by product but as we all know from 5D not to be underestimated)....
and fuji is laying the base with amazing glass at crazy low prices....
phase will have to do some real magic....i doubt it though....
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eronald

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2018, 02:13:58 AM »

Phase just want to lock up the full-solution institutional market and maybe rental. For all I know, they may have special museum-grade multi-spectral sensors soon. It's all about providing a high value smooth image production pipeline. Photographers with a $15-20K/year photo-equipment budget are only tangentially on their map especially with their dealer model pricing an expensive product even higher. PHASE LIVES WHERE THE REAL MONEY IS.

It looks like Fuji, Hassy and Pentax are going to have the "photo" market to themselves soon. All those fashion shooters, landscape artists and enthusiasts who actually pay for their own equipment.  And actually Fuji and Hassy do seem to be investing and innovating, at a pace which would frighten any institutional customer except the military :)

Edmund

I agree, Phase One is in a precarious position right now with the entire Medium Format world shifting to Mirrorless. Also, considering the H6D-50c is half the price of the XF and IQ50 and the H6D-100c a far better deal relative to the IQ100, that leaves Phase One in a hot mess of a situation with very little to justify the difference in cost. That difference is going to shrink even more as Hasselblad improve Phocus.

Phase One need to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

A mirrorless, to compete - come on drop that Mamiya 7D already!

AND they need to get competitive with an XF-50 that is priced at an entry level price - they could nip their demise in the bud with this alone. It would buy them some time, get them a new user base and give them some much needed capital to compete with the mega Giant DJI. My local Electronics store sells DJI drones in the windows, they have become a major global player with a lot of cash and are accelerating by the day - don't underestimate how 1) quickly this could shift to Hasselblad being the main player and 2) how quickly Phase One could go out of business entirely.

Wake up Phase One, before it's too late!
« Last Edit: January 05, 2018, 04:21:20 AM by eronald »
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Smoothjazz

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2018, 09:59:15 AM »

Since I still have the 80mp Phase back, the 150mp would definitely be enticing to me. I also want to move to the Electronic Shutter system. My hope is the Phase will have a good trade-in plan for my old back.
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matted

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2018, 12:47:23 PM »

There is, and always will be, a market for the highest megapixel count and biggest sensor size, so as long as Phase (and Hassy) have that advantage over the crop-sensor mirrorless cameras they will have some relevance to someone.

What I really wonder is whether we will ever see an EVF on a full 645 sensor camera, and if we do, if it will basically just be an H or XF body without the mirror, or if they will fully embrace the advantages of mirrorless and redesign the fundamental camera/lens system as well. I would think that Phase is much more likely to do this than Hassy, as I can't see Hassy making a 645 mirrorless system with new lenses alongside the X1D*. I would also think that this would be a good move for Phase to distinguish themselves from Hassy/Fuji mirrorless designs, similar to what Fuji did (instead of trying to compete with Sony directly in FF 35mm they went bigger with the GFX).

*Unless the X1D lenses/mount can actually support full frame 645. I am not sure if this is known one way or another.
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narikin

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2018, 01:07:54 PM »

Yes Phase have the XF as the big gun in this field, so that will jump to 150mp, clearly. Whether they give an EVF option for it or not. An XF2 could also be in the works.

Fuji will of course be the leader in EVF for reduced 645 format. They already have one for GFX, that will doubtless be updated as things improve. I see them as a very serious innovator-challenger. Look at the brilliantly conceived mix of viewfinder optics & EVF in the X-1Pro and X100F.

Sony may well enter the MF game too. don't discount their very ambitious attempt to grab the digital camera market by the scruff of the neck. And they are succeeding, in many areas.

All this leaves the question, will Phase enter the MF mirrorless market or not. I don't see how they can afford not to, unless they are simply wanting to take the highest ground (150mp, the XF, institutional) and abandon the rest. A mistake imho, but then it's their expertise, not mine!



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tcdeveau

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2018, 03:56:36 PM »

Just to stir the pot a little since it hasn't been mentioned yet: weirdly one of the dealers on the forum (not mentioning name so I don't call anyone out) immediately commented "No" and then the post was deleted.  This may mean something, also may be meaningless.  I would think that with the trichromatic out recently, and the H6D-100c shipping for a shorter time period than the IQx100, both Phase and Hassy probably want to sell a few more of those before they drop a new model but maybe they'd surprise us. 

One thing I was thinking about is that if Phase doesn't decide to pursue mirrorless, they could stick to 40x5mm4 IQ systems, ditch 33x44mm, and then license out C1 to those with GFX's and X1D's.  No idea if it would make any sense for them or their business, but I definitely see on forums P1 users with both IQ systems and GFX's increasingly favoring the GFX or dropping the IQ entirely while lamenting lack of C1 support.  If they're going to lose IQ users, they may as will still try and make some $$ off the people that still want to use their software.  Maybe a partnership with Fuji would make sense in that regard (don't see them partnering with Hassy as long as the H is around) so they don't do the R&D for a system with stiff competition from Hassy and Fuji.  For people buying into MF for the first time, they may as well try and make some $$ off of people buying GFX's and X1D's that aren't even considering IQx50's due to the price differential (esp with Fuji). 

I don't know what will happen but I'm definitely looking forward to the next batch of MF sensors making their way into cameras, whether that's now or in 2019.   Regardless of manufacturer, the cropped 100mp mirrorless systems will presumably make 100mp systems more affordable, 150mp systems will provide gobs of resolution for those that can afford it, and all of the current offerings (which are more than capable for the needs of most) will be cheaper.  It's definitely a good time to be a photographer, but this has been the case for quite some time already IMHO....I just wish there were more MF monochrom options. 
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jamgolf

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2018, 05:01:00 PM »

I believe IQ 80 MP digital back was originally released in January 2011. So, it was ~5 years later in January of 2016 that IQ3 100 MP was released.
Its only been 2 years since then, so I highly doubt that IQ4 150 MP is coming anytime soon.
Although, I would be happy to be wrong.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2018, 05:05:31 PM »

Another factor that may help sell these 150mp backs would be better tech camera movement behaviour.

But who knows if that would be the case.

Cheers,
Bernard

narikin

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2018, 05:55:34 PM »

I believe IQ 80 MP digital back was originally released in January 2011. So, it was ~5 years later in January of 2016 that IQ3 100 MP was released.
Its only been 2 years since then, so I highly doubt that IQ4 150 MP is coming anytime soon.
Although, I would be happy to be wrong.

True, but they went IQ1 > IQ2 > IQ3 in those 5 years, its not the same product.
I believe it will be announced before Photokina, so sometime before Fall '18.

Likewise with the 100Mp Fuji/Hassy/Sony(?!) mirrorless.

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narikin

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2018, 05:58:34 PM »

Just to stir the pot a little since it hasn't been mentioned yet: weirdly one of the dealers on the forum (not mentioning name so I don't call anyone out) immediately commented "No" and then the post was deleted.  This may mean something, also may be meaningless. 

I think he simply decided no comment was better.

But, we can take it as a well informed opinion that the 150mp back is not coming imminently - Jan/Feb, at least.
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Graham Welland

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2018, 10:18:26 PM »

True, but they went IQ1 > IQ2 > IQ3 in those 5 years, its not the same product.
I believe it will be announced before Photokina, so sometime before Fall '18.

I would hope that Phase One learnt from their IQ3100 release that appeared so soon after the IQ380. I know of a number of folks who made the jump to IQ380 who were then immediately blind sided by the rapid IQ3100 release afterwards and were NONE TOO PLEASED with the situation. I know that most dealers kept their customers whole in the end but folks were not happy.

I'd hate to see Trichromatic IQ3100 upgraders in the same position if the IQ3150 or IQ4 came along too soon. Sometimes you have to manage your upgrade cycles to not upset the customer base. Just ask Sony with their rolling A7Rxx cameras.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2018, 11:05:27 AM by Graham Welland »
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: Jan 2016 Phase shocked us with IQ100 - Jan 2018: is the IQ150 imminent?
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2018, 11:14:03 PM »

My guess would be that Phase One releasing the 150 MP back depends on the sensor becoming available, in all probability Phase wants to be the first vendor of 150MP solutions. Sony says 2018, but that year begins with January and ends with December, could well be that we won't see 150MP in cameras before 2019. Same goes for 100MP on 44x33 mm.

We have to wait and see..

Best regards
Erik

I would hope that Phase One learnt from their IQ3100 release that appeared so soon after the IQ380. I know of a number of folks who made the jump to IQ380 who were then immediately blind sided by the rapid IQ3100 release afterwards and were NONE TOO PLEASED with the situation. I know that most dealers kept their customers whole in the end but folks were not happy.

I'd hate to see Trichromatic IQ3100 upgraders in the same position if the IQ3150 or IQ4 came along too soon. Sometimes you have to manage your upgrade cycles to not upset the customer base. Just ask Sony with they rolling A7Rxx cameras.
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