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Author Topic: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction  (Read 8885 times)

myotis

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Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« on: October 19, 2017, 12:58:40 pm »

For the sake of idle speculation here is my prediction on the future of Lightroom.

Stage 1. Lightroom Classic will go away once they manage to bring across all the classic features into Lightroom CC.  The same two packages will remain available, a Lightroom CC one with 1tb of cloud storage and Photographers one with Photoshop and an option to use Lightroom CC with local storage or (for additional cost) cloud storage.

Stage 2. The most crucial (as judged by Adobe) "photographer" features will be ported from Photoshop into Lightroom CC, and the Photography plan will go away. Lightroom CC, will now be available with different levels of cloud storage at a range of prices (including a no cloud storage option at £10/$10 a month). Photoshop will now only be available as a "normal" Adobe CC application at £20/$20 a month and will no longer be bundled with Lightroom.  If you want Lightroom and Photoshop you will need the All Apps subscription at £50/$50 a month.

Stage 3. To rationalise pricing structure Lightroom CC will increase to £20/$20 a month to bring it in line with other Adobe single app prices.  Photoshop Elements will be promoted/Developed as the low cost "all in one" option for the non enthusiast/amateur photographer. To  save development costs this new version of Elements will really be Lightroom CC with "advanced" features de-activated.

As I say, just idle speculation, but I nearly posted this few weeks ago, but in that post Stage 1 was Lightroom stand alone going away, and of course this has just happened.

Cheers,

Graham





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jrsforums

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2017, 02:05:35 pm »

Very idle....and, unfortunately not worth writing nor reading 😀
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John

myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2017, 02:21:59 pm »

Very idle....and, unfortunately not worth writing nor reading 😀

Sorry, there seemed to be rather a lot of speculation going on, and I did put some thought into it what I wrote, and wondered what others might think. But thanks for your comment.

Cheers,

Graham
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Denis de Gannes

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2017, 03:30:26 pm »

You can get some thoughts, "from the horses mouth" as the saying goes, from Adobe at the link below.

http://blogs.adobe.com/lightroomjournal/
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myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2017, 04:03:24 pm »

You can get some thoughts, "from the horses mouth" as the saying goes, from Adobe at the link below.

http://blogs.adobe.com/lightroomjournal/

I'm not sure if the "horses mouth" has been all that reliable in the past, not that I'm suggesting what I have say is any more reliable.  But I don't think companies can really make "long term" promises as they need to adapt to the market, and Adobe have implied this in the link.

In spite of an earlier commitment to a perpetual license model for LR, they suggest in the link that they to responded to customer demands by moving away from it. And they give a similar message about LR Classic, saying they are committed to providing the Classic version, unless they decide its something customers don't want.

Which is exactly what you would expect a successful company to do. Balance what is needed to run an effective business along with producing a product that enough people want to buy, which will include steering the customer towards the product you want sell.

Cheers,

Graham
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Denis de Gannes

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2017, 09:47:00 pm »

I'm not sure if the "horses mouth" has been all that reliable in the past, not that I'm suggesting what I have say is any more reliable.  But I don't think companies can really make "long term" promises as they need to adapt to the market, and Adobe have implied this in the link.

In spite of an earlier commitment to a perpetual license model for LR, they suggest in the link that they to responded to customer demands by moving away from it. And they give a similar message about LR Classic, saying they are committed to providing the Classic version, unless they decide its something customers don't want.

Which is exactly what you would expect a successful company to do. Balance what is needed to run an effective business along with producing a product that enough people want to buy, which will include steering the customer towards the product you want sell.

Cheers,

Graham

If I remember correctly Tom Hogarty advised that there would be "a perpetual license version available for the foreseeable future". Or words to that effect.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 09:50:02 pm by Denis de Gannes »
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myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2017, 02:21:46 am »

If I remember correctly Tom Hogarty advised that there would be "a perpetual license version available for the foreseeable future". Or words to that effect.

I can't remember those exact words,but I also seem to remember there was more than that reassurance bouncing around. But I guess this also depends on how you interpret forseeable future, and what you personally "want" to mean.  But I don't think it matters what is said, as what actually happens will depend on circumstances at the time it happens.

Cheers,

Graham
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john beardsworth

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2017, 02:33:26 am »

See this post - "Future versions of Lightroom will be made available via traditional perpetual licenses indefinitely."

So not the foreseeable future, but using a similar form of words.
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pegelli

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2017, 03:55:04 am »

See this post - "Future versions of Lightroom will be made available via traditional perpetual licenses indefinitely."

So not the foreseeable future, but using a similar form of words.
Since we're splitting hairs on the meaning of the word "indefinitely" let me find another hair to split in this Adobe statement:

Quote
Q. Will Lightroom become a subscription only offering after Lightroom 5?

A. Future versions of Lightroom will be made available via traditional perpetual licenses indefinitely.

The bolding is mine. Only one future version of Lightroom that was made available via the traditional perpetual licence (i.e. LR6), so based on Adobe using the word "versions" we could have expected this to happen at least to LR7 as well.
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pieter, aka pegelli

john beardsworth

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2017, 04:21:56 am »

You're splitting hairs, not me. I'm just quoting the form of words that Hogarty adopted, and insisting the word means what it means, not what some people imagine it means.
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pegelli

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2017, 04:50:29 am »

You're splitting hairs, not me. I'm just quoting the form of words that Hogarty adopted, and insisting the word means what it means, not what some people imagine it means.
No, I know, you're never splitting hairs, or at least never admitting you do ;)
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pieter, aka pegelli

myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2017, 05:08:35 am »

You're splitting hairs, not me. I'm just quoting the form of words that Hogarty adopted, and insisting the word means what it means, not what some people imagine it means.

Are you taking it to mean an "undefined" period of time rather than the commoner interpretation of it meaning "forever"?

Cheers,

Graham
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john beardsworth

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2017, 05:42:43 am »

Are you taking it to mean an "undefined" period of time rather than the commoner interpretation of it meaning "forever"?

Yes. But it is obviously a carefully-chosen word, providing the same sort of wiggle room as when politicians say they have no plans to do xyz. I don't think anyone really believed he meant forever, did they?
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pegelli

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2017, 06:29:24 am »

I don't think anyone really believed he meant forever, did they?
I do think a lot of people hoped (or expected) the use of the term would mean longer than it actually did.
Most people know that nothing is forever, but stopping after one major release feels a bit quick.
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pieter, aka pegelli

myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2017, 06:43:43 am »

Yes. But it is obviously a carefully-chosen word, providing the same sort of wiggle room as when politicians say they have no plans to do xyz. I don't think anyone really believed he meant forever, did they?

I think, as I mentioned earlier we interpret things to suit the moment, I suspect while no one thought it meant forever, many assumed it meant "long enough for it to be available while I want it"

But actually, I don't really think it matters, as the wriggle room is always. "that is what we thought then" but now "we are responding to what the majority of our customers say they want now". 

And on balance being able to change your mind on things as you gain understanding and experience, is a good thing, so I'm not sure I would even call it wriggle room.  Unless initially phrased to deliberately mislead, and that is difficult to judge.

Cheers,
Graham

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john beardsworth

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2017, 07:23:46 am »

Perhaps "we are responding to what the majority of our customers say they want now" is a mixture of truth and smokescreen. It's no wonder people were buying the subscription version when Adobe made it so hard to find the alternative.

But yes, when facts change you change your mind.

John
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john beardsworth

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2017, 07:26:08 am »

I do think a lot of people hoped (or expected) the use of the term would mean longer than it actually did.
Most people know that nothing is forever, but stopping after one major release feels a bit quick.

Me too.

I wonder if they will still sell 6 perpetual after the end of the year, available indefinitely....
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pegelli

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2017, 07:34:34 am »

Perhaps "we are responding to what the majority of our customers say they want now" is a mixture of truth and smokescreen. It's no wonder people were buying the subscription version when Adobe made it so hard to find the alternative.

But yes, when facts change you change your mind.

John
Fully agree on your first point John, however I didn't change my mind. I saw it coming and my exit strategy was ready. Implemetation is easy (do nothing/spend nothing). All cameras my current brand sells are in LR 6.12 and even camera upgrades (like LR features upgrades) are nice but non-essential for me. I hope I won't buy a new camera that is not supported by 6.13 for a long time, and even then I could sweat out a couple of years by converting to dng's. In case that ever becomes unpractical I'll look at my options then, nothing to worry about today since my crystal ball isn't clear enough to see what the best option is 5-7 years from now.
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pieter, aka pegelli

myotis

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2017, 07:37:06 am »

Perhaps "we are responding to what the majority of our customers say they want now" is a mixture of truth and smokescreen.

Yes, I think there will always be an obvious  smokescreen component to that type of phrase in that it will always have an unsaid, but should be assumed  "and what we think is best for our business"

Which, while not necessarily good for an individual customer, is still good for the majority of customers, as the majority probably want Adobe to survive and continue providing them with software they are used to using.

Graham
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hogloff

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Re: Lightroom CC 2019-2020 prediction
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2017, 08:47:52 am »

Do we really need to resort to the exact same conversation on LR no matter what the original topic of the thread is? Enough about how Mr. Hogarty phrased his statement about the perpectual version of LR...let's try to move past this now rather than ruining every single thread about LR by derailing.
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