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Author Topic: What next for Canon?  (Read 216005 times)

scyth

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #120 on: September 09, 2017, 08:27:30 PM »

One very key technology they are dependent on others is the sensor and it will be interesting how eager Sony will be to help Nikon develop a sensor for a mirrorless system that directly competes with their cameras. Right now the sensors all were developed for DSLR systems which might indirectly compete with the Sony cameras...but a "high end" Nikon mirrorless will be direct competition.

This could be Nikon's noose as far as mirrorless capabilities.

all Sony sensors can be used in dSLMs - it is not like Canon sensors with dual sensels technology in silicone itself... all big Sony sensors have PDAF on sensor implemented by what is on top of the sensor... so Nikon can take either Sony developed 20mp from D500 or Sony developed 45mp from D850 or their own from D5 and simply use those in dSLM ... they just need to ask Sony Semi to lay out what necessary on top of the sensor according to their specifications or they even can do that themselves...
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scyth

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #121 on: September 09, 2017, 08:38:40 PM »

Besides, the 1 series has proven their mastery of on sensor AF, what are they missing really?

that N1 mastery is due to sensor design from Aptina (and from Sony in the most recent generation) ... small sensor size = good DOF and fast readout off sensor that Aptina (and later Sony) achieved... of course Nikon gets the credit for camera design, components integration, optics, CFA & colors, you name it...
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hogloff

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #122 on: September 09, 2017, 10:17:45 PM »

all Sony sensors can be used in dSLMs - it is not like Canon sensors with dual sensels technology in silicone itself... all big Sony sensors have PDAF on sensor implemented by what is on top of the sensor... so Nikon can take either Sony developed 20mp from D500 or Sony developed 45mp from D850 or their own from D5 and simply use those in dSLM ... they just need to ask Sony Semi to lay out what necessary on top of the sensor according to their specifications or they even can do that themselves...

Right, and Sony holds all those cards. They just might not want to help a direct competitor in the mirrorless market.
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #123 on: September 09, 2017, 11:10:53 PM »

Nikon has been a profitable company year on year for as long as I remember. They certainly have more cash piled up now than they had when they developped breakthrough products such as the D3, another time when mode internet forum experts had declared then death and buried. ;) So there really is no reason to doubt their ability to invest.

Last time I checked, Nikon were operating at a loss.

There's much more to being a successful company than having the best current product. Otherwise Betamax would have prevailed over VHS.

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Besides, the 1 series has proven their mastery of on sensor AF, what are they missing really?

No, it means that they could keep up with Sony's first-generation systems (the A7r didn't even have PDAF, while the A7's was rudimentary), and Canon's technology at the same time, four years ago. While using lightweight lenses on a 2.7x crop sensor that didn't require nearly as precise focusing as full-frame and APS-C sensors.

The difference in level of precision required makes it similar to you saying that two marksmen are equal because one can hit a 1m-wide target just as quickly and consistently as the other can hit a 30cm-wide target.

They haven't released anything since, and the AF performance of Nikon's SLRs in live view mode is woeful in comparison to current Canon models with dual-pixel technology (particularly when using STM lenses), let alone Sony mirrorless cameras.

Also, unlike both Canon (on video cameras) and Sony (on the A9 and on video cameras), Nikon has yet to demonstrate a lag-free EVF or live view system, which is required for action photography on a mirrorless camera.

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I'll tell you, the one and only thing they have been missing is the intention to compete in the mirrorless high end market. Why? Probably because some decision makers in Nikon didn't want to canibalize their DSLR sales... yet... Now that Sony is deservedly eating away big chunks of their market Nikon has no more reasons to hesitate, do they?

It's not hesitation. More likely it's because they haven't got the capability to compete.

Nikon and Sony have been taking big chunks from Canon's market share for years, due to their low-ISO weakness. At low-ISO, the 5D3's shadow areas were a mess of horizontal lines. It took them until 2016 to respond with the 1Dx2 and 5D4 - full-frame cameras capable of low-ISO performance in the same ballpark (if not quite up there) with the leaders. And Canon's a much larger and better-resourced company than Nikon.

Besides, I believe that Canon will follow suite, but probably one year later (too late?).

Why would Canon be later?

Their demonstrated mirrorless AF capabilities are far more advanced than Nikon's and they have a more mature mirrorless-capable lens motor system (the STM lenses) which can easily be added to the next generation of L-lenses.

Moreover, unlike Nikon, many of the key Canon L-lenses are older than their Nikon counterparts and due for an update anyway. The 24-70 and 70-200 could be updated tomorrow, with improved optics as well as stepper motors, and it wouldn't be out of place in the product cycle. Same with many of their supertele lenses.

It would make sense for the 5Ds2 to be Canon's first mirrorless full-frame camera. Canon has already lost much of the high-resolution, non-action SLR market anyway (owing to their inability to compete with the D800/D810 and A7r/A7r2), so not a lot of candidate buyers will be carrying a large lens collection across. As a high-resolution, slow-shooting non-action camera, which, most likely, will be able to stand against Exmor sensors DR-wise for the first time in ten years, it is an ideal candidate to launch a new line of mirrorless cameras and lenses, or even a new lens mount - even if it doesn't match the A9 (or successor) AF-wise (understandably, since Sony has such a head-start in mirrorless), it doesn't particularly matter for most non-action shooters anyway. This could then be followed up with balanced, speed-focused and entry-level successors.

For Nikon, the entry-level route makes more sense than the high-end/high-resolution route. Nikon already half-owns the high-resolution scene (split with Sony), so many users would be carrying a lot of lenses across to the new system and would be understandably reluctant to have to replace them. But the D610 also needs a successor, and APS-C bodies are in constant need of successors. Users of these cameras often don't have a lot of lenses to carry across, or are stepping up from various small-sensor or fixed-lens cameras, so would have to buy new lenses anyway - an ideal place to launch a new mount and lens lineup.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #124 on: September 10, 2017, 03:39:04 AM »

Anyway, we should know pretty soon if rumors are to be believed.

For now I have a very hard time identifying things my DSLRs don't do incredibly well.

I am on my way back from a shoot in the backcountry and the Nikon 19mm T/S appears to be a great match to the D850.

Cheers,
Bernard
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #125 on: September 10, 2017, 05:56:14 AM »

Anyway, we should know pretty soon if rumors are to be believed.

For now I have a very hard time identifying things my DSLRs don't do incredibly well.

I am on my way back from a shoot in the backcountry and the Nikon 19mm T/S appears to be a great match to the D850.

Cheers,
Bernard

The issue isn't its capabilities. The issue is with its future.

If the D850 was Nikon's first full-frame mirrorless camera, with a new line of mirrorless-compatible lenses (possibly on a new mount) and the same specs in every other way, I'd have ordered one today, when the DR/ISO charts came out. But, being an SLR, there's little guarantee that any lenses I buy for the system now will still be useful in five years' time, at least without an adapter. I'd rather buy into a system which is likely to still be around in 20 years' time.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #126 on: September 10, 2017, 07:13:45 AM »

Whatever works for you,

I take photographs today not in 5 years from now and I couldn't care less if something else better comes out if what I user covers my, rather demanding, needs.

Cheers,
Bernard
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danbereskin

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #127 on: September 12, 2017, 09:41:33 AM »

To put the original question another way, does anyone here believe that Canon will still be making DSLR cameras ten years from now?
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davidgp

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #128 on: September 12, 2017, 10:58:41 AM »

To put the original question another way, does anyone here believe that Canon will still be making DSLR cameras ten years from now?

In 10 years??? I think EVF will take over by them... I don't believe what many people said about mirrorless revolution, like it happened with digital vs analog, but just natural evolution... considering that mirrorless has been in the market since 2008 (with EVF... if not, any rangefinder could be consider mirrorless)... it is just a natural evolution...

Now the question will be if Canon will still making EF mount with somekind of EVF/OVF system and a mirror... or something else... not sure about that...

kers

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #129 on: September 12, 2017, 04:31:56 PM »

The issue isn't its capabilities. The issue is with its future.

If the D850 was Nikon's first full-frame mirrorless camera, with a new line of mirrorless-compatible lenses (possibly on a new mount) and the same specs in every other way, I'd have ordered one today, when the DR/ISO charts came out. But, being an SLR, there's little guarantee that any lenses I buy for the system now will still be useful in five years' time, at least without an adapter. I'd rather buy into a system which is likely to still be around in 20 years' time.
Well, you have a lot of future problems, I can imagine your pension is well taken care of ;)
As you know Nikons F Bajonet is out there since...    ...  ...    so you can still mount very old Nikkor lenses on the d850.
So if you want to put your money on Canon/Nikon equipment it is obvious what will have a bigger change to be useful in future.
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #130 on: September 12, 2017, 05:44:54 PM »

Well, you have a lot of future problems, I can imagine your pension is well taken care of ;)
As you know Nikons F Bajonet is out there since...    ...  ...    so you can still mount very old Nikkor lenses on the d850.
So if you want to put your money on Canon/Nikon equipment it is obvious what will have a bigger change to be useful in future.

Shifting from SLR to mirrorless is very different - the flange distance will likely be much shorter, to better accommodate wide-angle lenses. No company which has made both SLR and mirrorless cameras kept the same mount for both. Even if the physical attachment is the same, the flange distance may well be different, making current lenses unusable without an adapter.

And mounting it is different from having it work well. No stepper motor means that most current lenses can't make use of the rapid, fine AF adjustments that mirrorless cameras rely on. Fine if you just want to focus manually, but not so great if you expect it to focus as fast as it does on your SLR.

I wouldn't buy a diesel-powered car, no matter how good, if it seemed that diesel was going out of favour and diesel fuel wouldn't be readily available in 5 years' time. Same with leaded fuel 30 years ago. And it's the same with lenses - why spend a small fortune on SLR lenses when there won't be a new body to attach them to in 5-10 years' time?
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #131 on: September 12, 2017, 07:02:34 PM »

Why buy gasoline car also when the future is obviously electric?

For the same reason I bought a DSLR last week, because gasoline cars are still overall better cars than electric ones today.

Is it economically sound? Maybe not but it is the best way to stay close to the cutting edge.

Now if I had less cash and no hope to be better off in 3-5 years, I would perhaps go Sony today, but it would be a cost saving measure.

Similarly, I do totally understand that some photographers prefer the compactness of mirrorless systems but I still see this today as a compromise in favor of ease of use over image quality.

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 08:00:32 PM by BernardLanguillier »
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #132 on: September 13, 2017, 03:19:33 AM »

Why buy gasoline car also when the future is obviously electric?

For the same reason I bought a DSLR last week, because gasoline cars are still overall better cars than electric ones today.

Is it economically sound? Maybe not but it is the best way to stay close to the cutting edge.

Petrol will probably still be available everywhere in Australia for the 10-or-so year life of a petrol-powered car. By the time I can no longer get petrol, I'd be ready to replace the car anyway.

Not so with SLR lenses. I would expect to struggle to find a compatible top-end SLR body - particularly a resolution-focused one - well before the lenses themselves are obsolete.

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Now if I had less cash and no hope to be better off in 3-5 years, I would perhaps go Sony today, but it would be a cost saving measure.

Similarly, I do totally understand that some photographers prefer the compactness of mirrorless systems but I still see this today as a compromise in favor of ease of use over image quality.

Nothing to do with cost or size.

Some early adopters may have gone for the size, but many were Canon shooters moving for IQ. And no-one buying the GM lenses made the choice based on size. The fact that a mirrorless camera can be smaller than an SLR doesn't mean that size is the main consideration for choosing one, or even a consideration at all.

The A7r2 offered much more DR than the 5Ds and was short only a few megapixels. It also offered similar DR to the D810, with a few extra MP, better high-ISO IQ and the ability to take a much wider variety of lenses (especially the Canon tilt-shifts). The D850, obviously, is a next-generation model. Sony has yet to announce its competitor.
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BJL

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #133 on: September 17, 2017, 03:02:49 PM »

Shifting from SLR to mirrorless is very different - the flange distance will likely be much shorter, to better accommodate wide-angle lenses. No company which has made both SLR and mirrorless cameras kept the same mount for both. . . .

And mounting it is different from having it work well. No stepper motor means that most current lenses can't make use of the rapid, fine AF adjustments that mirrorless cameras rely on. . . .
I think you are probably right: so far at least, the best lens designs for a mirrorless camera (including range-finders!) are different than the best designs for an SLR, due to different AF systems and the different constraints on how close rear-elements can get to the focal plane. AFAIK, even with on-sensor PDAF, new approaches like linear stepper motors are best with mirrorless bodies and for video, but are not as fast as ring-style motors when used on an SLR. If that persists, any competitive mirrorless camera system will rely primarily on new lens designs, while using SLR lenses will be a bit of a hack. And it is an easier first step to develop such a new lens system for a mainstream format like DX, where the system needs fewer lenses to be competitive,  and each lens sells in higher numbers.

why spend a small fortune on SLR lenses when there won't be a new body to attach them to in 5-10 years' time?
Yes: well-chosen lenses should outlive many generations of ILC body technology, and I now choose my lenses accordingly. I expect some SLR bodies to still be offered for a decade or more, but mostly as backward compatibility tools for good and expensive old lenses, and for photographers of "certain tastes". (Nikon still sells the F6, released in 2004.)
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #134 on: September 18, 2017, 12:39:22 AM »

I think you are probably right: so far at least, the best lens designs for a mirrorless camera (including range-finders!) are different than the best designs for an SLR, due to different AF systems and the different constraints on how close rear-elements can get to the focal plane. AFAIK, even with on-sensor PDAF, new approaches like linear stepper motors are best with mirrorless bodies and for video, but are not as fast as ring-style motors when used on an SLR. If that persists, any competitive mirrorless camera system will rely primarily on new lens designs, while using SLR lenses will be a bit of a hack. And it is an easier first step to develop such a new lens system for a mainstream format like DX, where the system needs fewer lenses to be competitive,  and each lens sells in higher numbers.

Actually, linear stepper motors being 'slower' than ring motors is a myth.

Mirrorless AF has two steps - PDAF, which quickly gets the lens to the vicinity of correct focus, and 'through-the-sensor' (contrast-detection, AI-based or a combination of both) fine-tuning for perfect focus.

SLRs only have one step - PDAF. It gets the lens to the general vicinity of correct focus, but SLR bodies don't have a second fine-tuning step. The lens moves once, then stops moving (providing it's not trying to track).

Stepper motors and ring motors perform the PDAF part just as fast as each other. But, because SLRs using PDAF stop there, while stepping motors using mirrorless or live view approaches keep moving while refining the focus, it gives the impression that the ring motor, which stops first, is faster than the stepping motor. This is not the case - both motors reach the general vicinity of correct focus just as fast as each other, but, whereas the ring motor/SLR combination stops there, leaving a slight (often unnoticeable, due to DOF) error, the stepping motor/mirrorless combination keeps going to refine it further.

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Yes: well-chosen lenses should outlive many generations of ILC body technology, and I now choose my lenses accordingly. I expect some SLR bodies to still be offered for a decade or more, but mostly as backward compatibility tools for good and expensive old lenses, and for photographers of "certain tastes". (Nikon still sells the F6, released in 2004.)

The thing is, once mirrorless becomes dominant, manufacturers will no longer be putting their best technologies into SLR bodies (which, as you say, will only be there for backward compatibility and niche tastes with sales declining with each generation). Sensors may improve (it's easier to make a few sensors that go into every product, rather than having a separate one for low-volume SLRs) but anything other than the imaging sensor itself is likely to stagnate, until they stop making them altogether (how many TLR cameras do you see these days?).
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lightskyland

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #135 on: October 03, 2017, 11:34:43 AM »

I don't see the Sony as a "cost-saving measure".

Many of the best new, reasonably-sized lenses are at this point only available for Sony. Unless one really enjoys shooting with behemoth-style gear, the A7R2 with Laowa 15, Loxia 21, CV 65, and Batis 135 really is the best option for landscape photography on the market. The logical next step up from Sony is a Phase 1 100MP camera, not a bulky dSLR with giant Otus lenses.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 11:37:46 AM by lightskyland »
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #136 on: October 03, 2017, 04:07:37 PM »

I don't see the Sony as a "cost-saving measure".

Many of the best new, reasonably-sized lenses are at this point only available for Sony. Unless one really enjoys shooting with behemoth-style gear, the A7R2 with Laowa 15, Loxia 21, CV 65, and Batis 135 really is the best option for landscape photography on the market. The logical next step up from Sony is a Phase 1 100MP camera, not a bulky dSLR with giant Otus lenses.

It's not necessarily a size-saving measure either. The fixation on size - whether through marketing or through engineering - has probably held mirrorless back more than anything else. Yes, it's possible to make a mirrorless camera smaller than an SLR of the same sensor size, and mirrorless wide-angle lenses can be smaller. But that's hardly the only - or even a main - reason to move towards mirrorless.

None of the lenses you mentioned are the sharpest lenses available in their focal length range. If you want ultra-sharp, high-resolution photos for large prints, can do far better for landscape photography. They won't be small, but they also won't be compromised, sacrificing image quality in the name of size or cost.
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hogloff

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #137 on: October 03, 2017, 05:11:31 PM »

It's not necessarily a size-saving measure either. The fixation on size - whether through marketing or through engineering - has probably held mirrorless back more than anything else. Yes, it's possible to make a mirrorless camera smaller than an SLR of the same sensor size, and mirrorless wide-angle lenses can be smaller. But that's hardly the only - or even a main - reason to move towards mirrorless.

None of the lenses you mentioned are the sharpest lenses available in their focal length range. If you want ultra-sharp, high-resolution photos for large prints, can do far better for landscape photography. They won't be small, but they also won't be compromised, sacrificing image quality in the name of size or cost.

With large prints displayed on the wall, do you really think you can pick out which lens was used if all the lenses were top quality and yes I say the Batis 135 and loxia 21 are top quality. I highly doubt you can accurately tell if proper technique and processing were used.
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lightskyland

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #138 on: October 03, 2017, 07:37:27 PM »

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None of the lenses you mentioned are the sharpest lenses available in their focal length range.

 :o

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If you want ultra-sharp, high-resolution photos for large prints, can do far better for landscape photography.

Please list them:

14-15mm

20-21mm

55-70mm

125-150mm
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shadowblade

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Re: What next for Canon?
« Reply #139 on: October 05, 2017, 09:17:56 PM »

:o

Please list them:

14-15mm

The Laowa has poor edges/corners.

For a prime, I'd go for the Sigma 14mm f/1.8.

The Canon 11-24 f/4 and Sony 12-24 f/4 are also just as sharp when shooting at typical landscape apertures, and a lot more versatile.

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20-21mm

I'd have this focal length bracketed with the TS-E 17 and TS-E 24. Both are super-sharp to the corners when unshifted and untilted (and the Loxia doesn't even have that option) with no moustache distortion.

Also, when you need 21mm exactly, the Canon 16-35 f/2.8 III, Sony 16-35 f/2.8 GM and Sony 12-24 f/4 all equal or come close to the Loxia at equal aperture (I believe there was a direct comparison between the 12-24 and Loxia on FredMiranda).

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55-70mm

55mm Otus.

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125-150mm

Sigma 135mm Art probably has the Batis beaten by a bit. The Sigma at f/1.8 comes close to the Batis at f/2.8, and likely beats it at the same aperture. Also, it can go faster when needed.

But, really, at 135mm, I'd be looking at a 70-200mm or 100-400mm zoom.
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