even with a technically perfect screen to print match, what looks optimal on a monitor may not look optimal on a print. Those two are at best only distantly related image containers.
And let's not even talk about the dismally lighted Hell most prints will be cast into out in the world.
I agree, but I think you are raising another issue that really has nothing to do with making reliable predictions about print results from soft-proofing.
With a correct soft-proofing technique—including properly-adjusted monitor brightness and print-viewing conditions—there shouldn't be any surprises when you go from screen to print. The colors should be as expected and the print shouldn't be "too dark."
But I think some photographs that look fine on a monitor simply don't print well. We edit on transmissive devices with substantially greater dynamic range than any reflective media. Some images seem to demand a 500:1 or even 1000:1 brightness ratio to appear the way the photographer had in mind.
I've especially found this to be true of nighttime cityscapes and other shots where the essence of the picture is the interplay of bright highlights against a dark, detailed and quite visible—at least to the human eye and computer monitor—background. I shot a number of these recently during a vacation trip to Kyoto. They look the way I want on my color-calibrated NEC monitors. They look fine on my wife's uncalibrated iMac. (Well, actually, a bit too shiny for my taste, but they capture the essential appearance I had in mind when I made them.) I had no problem soft-proofing them ... except that the proof copies looked awful. Not dark. Not off-color—in fact. except for a few tiny areas, the paper I was using (Epson premium luster) covered the entire gamut of the images—but flat. Boring. This was true of the entire series. And the prints, alas, accurately reproduced the soft proofs.
I've attached one of the photos from this series as an example. I'm sure someone with better printing skills than mine could have done a better job with it than I did. I suspect a different paper might have produced a marginally better result. But my takeaway from this experience is that there are some images that simply don't work as prints.
I've been looking lately at high-end transmissive display devices: special-purpose 4K digital monitors that supposedly have been optimized for still photography. I'm not entirely satisfied with the functionality and specs of any of the units currently on the market, but there appear to be more under development and, even if I eventually have to make some compromises, I think I'll eventually pop for one and see what it can do.
I really like prints and I enjoy making them. But in this digital era I think there are some photographs that beg to be digitally displayed.