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Author Topic: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera  (Read 2657 times)

BJL

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"I will give out a "Nikonashii" mirrorless camera that made a difference to other companies in terms of performance." — https://nikonrumors.com/2017/07/08/nikons-president-confirms-new-mirrorless-camera-in-an-interview.aspx/
I presume he does not mean another "One" system body, so I would guess at 24x16mm "APS-C" format.

The original interview article in Japanese is at http://newswitch.jp/p/9613
and the above article quotes from the Google translation at
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fnewswitch.jp%2Fp%2F9613
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donbga

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2017, 01:02:47 PM »


I presume he does not mean another "One" system body, so I would guess at 24x16mm "APS-C" format.


Why not FF?
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BJL

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2017, 03:06:27 PM »

Why not FF?
It could be 36x24mm format instead, but I am guessing on the more mainstream 24x16mm because:
(a) It is a far larger market sector.
(b) First-time ILC camera buyers are the most likely to go for a new system with an all-new lens line-up, which initially will not have such a wide range, and these first-timers mostly choose the smaller, less expensive formats.
(c) The 36x24mm format user-base has a higher proportion of OVF-clinging curmudgeons  :)
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2017, 01:07:43 AM »

It could be 36x24mm format instead, but I am guessing on the more mainstream 24x16mm because:
(a) It is a far larger market sector.
(b) First-time ILC camera buyers are the most likely to go for a new system with an all-new lens line-up, which initially will not have such a wide range, and these first-timers mostly choose the smaller, less expensive formats.
(c) The 36x24mm format user-base has a higher proportion of OVF-clinging curmudgeons  :)

Indeed.

On the other hand, what are the odds that Nikon would release 2 new range of lenses within one+ year?

Besides, why focus on mid-range when their intend has clearly been to deliver high margin products with unbeatable product appeal?

Cheers,
Bernard
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davidgp

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2017, 01:50:15 AM »

It could be 36x24mm format instead, but I am guessing on the more mainstream 24x16mm because:
(a) It is a far larger market sector.
(b) First-time ILC camera buyers are the most likely to go for a new system with an all-new lens line-up, which initially will not have such a wide range, and these first-timers mostly choose the smaller, less expensive formats.
(c) The 36x24mm format user-base has a higher proportion of OVF-clinging curmudgeons  :)

I disagree, all camera makers are focusing in the high-end market, it is were really the money is, you sell less units, make more money.

I don't think it will be newcomers that buy this camera, it will be people using other full frame camera that will come here, like it is happening, in my mind, with the Sony FE camera system, it is more people jumping ship from Canon (mainly, my opinion, maybe wrong), than new people coming to photography... and looks like Sony is doing well economically selling those full frame mirrorless.

If they release a new lens mount, it will be probably be Full frame compatible...

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2017, 04:14:25 AM »

I see this pretty much in the lines of Canon tentative steps, so something like the EOS M. The EOS M has taken time to mature, in baby steps, but mature it has, and offers a good range today.

Hulyss

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2017, 07:24:14 AM »

This will not be a "tentative" thus the long waiting time. It will be a mature product in line with the new team, less conservative, and it will be 24x36. They understood what kind of impact a brutal transition between DSLR and mirror-less can induce. They worked hard on mirroless AF system since a very long time with the V serie, it is mature and more than efficient. Many never tryed or owned a Nikon 1 V1. The AF in those machines is just perfect, in par with the D4 and somehow different than the fuji or sony AF system. When you use it you feel it. I completely trust Nikon on this step, more than many "hyped" brands.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 07:30:52 AM by Hulyss »
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2017, 08:06:46 AM »

Whether this new camera is full frame or APS-C is not terribly relevant to me.  I've shot with both formats using Nikon DSLRs.  The most critical matter is size and weight.  My wife and I just got back from a 2 1/2 week holiday in Ireland with a first stopover in London for a wedding.  When I packed up my d810 with just the single zoom lens along with my carry on luggage things were just too heavy! >:(  Because we would be on the move a lot, I didn't want to have so much heavy stuff to manage.  I ended up taking only my pocket Canon S90 that was reviewed on LuLa back in 2009 and does RAW captures.  I ended up with some decent images and sure they can't be printed up big but I also didn't have to wrestle with the Nikon. 

I've had some good discussions with a well known member of LuLa who pretty much uses a Sony A6300 exclusively and he gets excellent results.  I can reduce the camera weight by more than half by moving to that system.  While it would be nice if Nikon maintains compatibility with existing F mount lenses, one cannot ignore the weight of some of the zooms.  My 24-120 f4 zoom is 710g which is only slightly lighter than a Sony a6500 with the Zeiss Tessar 16-70 zoom mounted (760g).  For us 'senior citizen' photographers, weight is the bottom line! ;D

I don't know what the timing of the new Nikon mirrorless offering is but it's likely that I will get the Sony a6500 this summer.
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BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2017, 11:04:13 AM »

It seems pretty likely that whatver Nikon decides to release will be best in class.

The question is what they decide to release and when. ;)

Cheers,
Bernard
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mecrox

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2017, 11:04:49 AM »

I'd hope that Nikon produce an excellent new system but they are still going to have to push hard to persuade folks to buy Nikon in a now-crowded field and to win back some of those who have left for Sony, Fuji and co. For some of us there may be no going back since light and small are primary considerations and the only way to get most of that is going with a smaller sensor like M43. It's by no means a done deal for Nikon. They are up against mature mirrorless systems with full or nearly full catalogues of lenses and accessories and several generations in to iron out the technology and build out the customer base. You can't do all that in a few months.
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scyth

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2017, 11:19:08 AM »

It seems pretty likely that whatver Nikon decides to release will be best in class.

they will create a class of their own then naturally will be the best there... System 1 v2.0... oops, what happened with the best in class v1.0 ?
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BJL

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2017, 11:26:07 AM »

On the other hand, what are the odds that Nikon would release 2 new range of lenses within one+ year?
What are the two new ranges of lenses that you refer to? If you mean lenses for mirrorless systems in both 24x16mm and 36x24mm format, I doubt that Nikon will launch both such system within a year or each other. I expect Nikon to follow the pattern seen with Canon, Fujifilm and Sony: mainstream 24x16mm format first, and then some years later (if ever!), a larger, lower volume, higher margin system. Even Leica started in the smaller format (T), then upsized (SL), and has so far three bodies in the smaller format (T, TL, TL2) and only one in the larger.

As far as lens roll-outs, it is easier for the smaller format aimed at less demanding customers: a standard zoom, telephoto zoom, one small prime and an SLR-mount lens adaptor for the first year has been the typical start.

A number of people seem convinced that the higher margins for a larger format (36x24) outweigh the greater unit sales of a smaller format (24x16), leading to great profitability and better ROI. What, if any, is the evidence for or against this claim?
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2017, 11:33:06 AM »

A number of people seem convinced that the higher margins for a larger format (36x24) outweigh the greater unit sales of a smaller format (24x16), leading to great profitability and better ROI. What, if any, is the evidence for or against this claim?
It's all going to depend on the physical size/weight of the camera/lens combination.  As I noted in my earlier post, F mount lens weights, especially for zooms, will have an extreme impact as far as I'm concerned.  I would assume that a Nikon mirrorless body would weigh less than a d810, but how much less?  For those of us who travel internationally and want a decent 1-3 lens system that won't weigh one down is the important question.  In the US when I'm going by car, the d810 and associated lenses is a non-issue.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2017, 11:40:44 AM »

I am curious to see what comes out. Today, MILC systems cover the entire range from "retro" to "futuristic"; for example, from stuff like the Fuji X and Sony ILCE, to stuff like Leica TL.

Size-wise, we have pretty much everything covered, from small (Fuji, Sony, EOS M, Nikon V1) to large (Leica SL).

I think that the big added value from Canon and Nikon is the multi-million number of lenses that are out there being used. Renegading that, nothing stops current users from moving to other MILC brands.

Hulyss

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2017, 06:35:41 PM »

We can see that Nikon covered any needs in dslr lenses since years and continue to provide new lenses once in a while. If they want to make a new system from scratches I do not see any problem with that. We know that the best way for a mirror-less camera is to have dedicated lenses with short flange distance. If they come out with an inspiring body oozing Nikon soul + a good stater selection of lenses + an adapter, the transition will be easy.
It is not because a bunch of drama queens on forums jumped on other brands that Nikon is going to die. Most photographers aren't on forum, hopefully.

Let's have a bit of faith.
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davidgp

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2017, 12:52:28 AM »


A number of people seem convinced that the higher margins for a larger format (36x24) outweigh the greater unit sales of a smaller format (24x16), leading to great profitability and better ROI. What, if any, is the evidence for or against this claim?

I don't have numbers, so it is more my personal speculation from what I'm seeing in the market. Two cases:

- Sony released their Sony E system (24x16), going for the low cost market. In 2013 they decided to try with the A7 to test the full frame mirrorless waters... releasing their FE mount (36x24, compatible with the E mount). With the exception of two cameras in 24x16... they have basically pursued the A7/A9 series with cameras and lenses... with each new camera and model more expensive than the previous one... if you believe Sony, they are doing quite ok with it.

- Fuji, they released their X mount system in ASP-C format... and they are still heavily pushing it... but they decided to open new market. Probably seeing the Sony already has a strong position in full frame mirrorless, they jumped to medium format with their GFX mirrorless...

But it is not only this going to higher format... if you see the releases of cameras from all brands, you can clearly see a high focus in releasing pro-enthusiast cameras than entry level ones...

BernardLanguillier

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2017, 02:48:29 AM »

It would make very little economic sense to start mirrorless with APS-C at this point in time.

Besides, Nikon has been trying to push their DSLRs users up to FF for years now, stopping almost completely to release high quality APS-C specific lenses as Thom Hogan has been complaining about for years too.

The time it took to see a D500 is another proof of this.

Future will tell, but odds are high that we see a FF mirrorless Nikon with a set of uber lenses judging from their recent releases.

Cheers,
Bernard
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2017, 03:57:52 AM »

I don't have numbers, so it is more my personal speculation from what I'm seeing in the market. Two cases:

- Sony released their Sony E system (24x16), going for the low cost market. In 2013 they decided to try with the A7 to test the full frame mirrorless waters... releasing their FE mount (36x24, compatible with the E mount). With the exception of two cameras in 24x16... they have basically pursued the A7/A9 series with cameras and lenses... with each new camera and model more expensive than the previous one... if you believe Sony, they are doing quite ok with it.

- Fuji, they released their X mount system in ASP-C format... and they are still heavily pushing it... but they decided to open new market. Probably seeing the Sony already has a strong position in full frame mirrorless, they jumped to medium format with their GFX mirrorless...

But it is not only this going to higher format... if you see the releases of cameras from all brands, you can clearly see a high focus in releasing pro-enthusiast cameras than entry level ones...

The Sony ILCE cameras were initially APSC format, and were launched in 2010, the now renamed NEX series. Some good lenses were released for those, including ZA 24 f1.8, and the Zeiss Touits. Also, some cameras were not inexpensive, e.g. NEX-7.

Being a not so risk averse company, the ILCE mount moved to FF in 2013, indeed. Again, with a mix of cheaper and expensive lenses, e.g. FE 28-70 kit zoom, and a couple of ZA lenses, FE 35 f2.8 and FE 55 f1.8. One thing they do quite well is to keep on selling older cameras, for example the original A7 and A7R can still be bought new, they still make those.

BJL

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2017, 11:09:33 AM »

David and Bernard,

    There is another way to interpret the same facts! Sony, Nikon and everyone else started in a more mainstream "APS-C" format, launched an array of lenses for it, and then added the larger 36x24mm format (Sony did this twice: first with SLRs/SLTs, then with mirrorless). So for obvious reasons, with the larger format system arriving later, it needs to catch up on lens offerings, while there is less need to add lenses to the earlier, more mature "APS-C" lens system. There is also the fact that many lenses for the larger format are also perfectly suitable with smaller format bodies, such as primes about 60mm and up, so many lenses double count for both formats. Also, there is no question that the larger format calls for more high quality lenses than the smaller format, and its users will eventually demand a wider range of lenses than the more "entry level" smaller format cameras—at least once a camera maker deprecates the smaller format to a lower quality tier, as Nikon for example has done to Thom Hogan's chagrin. (On the other hand, Olympus, Panasonic and Fujifilm are still active in providing high quality "enthusiast to professional" quality bodies and lenses for their smaller format systems. A famous quote: "to succeed with Plan A, you must have no Plan B".)

Another way to measure the camera makers' interest in these two sensor formats is the number of bodies and frequency of their updates. For both Sony mirrorless and Nikon SLRs it is about equal, while Canon releases far more SLRs in its smaller EF-S format than in EF. (Maybe Sony and Nikon could take a tip from their more successful rival!)

Overall, I still see no resolution of the question as to which format is likely to contribute more to revenues and profits of a mirrorless camera system.
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davidgp

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Re: Nikon president comments on plans for another mirrorless camera
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2017, 01:00:08 AM »

David and Bernard,

    There is another way to interpret the same facts! Sony, Nikon and everyone else started in a more mainstream "APS-C" format, launched an array of lenses for it, and then added the larger 36x24mm format (Sony did this twice: first with SLRs/SLTs, then with mirrorless). So for obvious reasons, with the larger format system arriving later, it needs to catch up on lens offerings, while there is less need to add lenses to the earlier, more mature "APS-C" lens system. There is also the fact that many lenses for the larger format are also perfectly suitable with smaller format bodies, such as primes about 60mm and up, so many lenses double count for both formats. Also, there is no question that the larger format calls for more high quality lenses than the smaller format, and its users will eventually demand a wider range of lenses than the more "entry level" smaller format cameras—at least once a camera maker deprecates the smaller format to a lower quality tier, as Nikon for example has done to Thom Hogan's chagrin. (On the other hand, Olympus, Panasonic and Fujifilm are still active in providing high quality "enthusiast to professional" quality bodies and lenses for their smaller format systems. A famous quote: "to succeed with Plan A, you must have no Plan B".)

Another way to measure the camera makers' interest in these two sensor formats is the number of bodies and frequency of their updates. For both Sony mirrorless and Nikon SLRs it is about equal, while Canon releases far more SLRs in its smaller EF-S format than in EF. (Maybe Sony and Nikon could take a tip from their more successful rival!)

Overall, I still see no resolution of the question as to which format is likely to contribute more to revenues and profits of a mirrorless camera system.

It could be but the market has significantly changed. As it was previously said, Sony released its Sony E system in 2010, Fuji released the X-Pro 1 in 2012 as Canon did the first EOS M camera. 2012 was the start of the decline of camera sales that seems that have touch bottom this year. It was a different market, where made much more sense to sell a lot of small price cameras, because they were selling lots of them, that a few of higher price cameras...

Now, for me it makes more sense to go high quality first, but again, Nikon is the second biggest camera seller in the market. For them, with a really good brand... maybe DX will do and will attract a lot of buyers.

But also Nikon made the mistake of ignoring the high end market two times. First when they were saying last decade that in digital DX format was enough before releasing the D3 and losing sales to Canon 1D series. And with the 1 series mirrorless camera format that it is not selling well at all.
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