Skepticism about Climate Change

[Farmer]

Thanks for your opinion.

It wasn't really an opinion.  It was a statement of demonstrable fact.

[Alan Klein]

But the issue I was pointing out is that species adapt or move to more productive places as local conditions worsen   That goes for corals, polar bears, man,  and all other species.

You seem to have drunk the Kool Aid - I mean, almost literally, since you seem to have a yearning for the extinction of your own species.

We have more people today by far despite the rising temperatures over the last couple of centuries.    So much for your theory.


If your theory is right,  however,  and global warming reverses the trend,  wouldn't that be good?  After all,  scientists have be warning us for decades how they're wouldn't be enough food to support the population we have already.  (Another false prediction it turns out)

[Alan Klein]

Frankly,  if there is a link between man and global warming,  then it's a decreasing population that would be most helpful to reverse the warming trend.

[LesPalenik]

Frankly,  if there is a link between man and global warming,  then it's a decreasing population that would be most helpful to reverse the warming trend.

Bingo!

[LesPalenik]

After all,  scientists have be warning us for decades how they're wouldn't be enough food to support the population we have already.  (Another false prediction it turns out)

Worldwide, enough food is produced to feed everyone, yet this food and the technology to produce it do not always reach those in need. As a result of food deficits, nearly 1 000 million people do not get enough to eat and over 400 million are chronically malnourished. Every year 11 million children under the age of five die from hunger or hunger-related diseases (Lean, Hinrichsen and Markham, 1990).

In recent decades there has been growth in food production, due to genetically modified food, the increased use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, growth hormons and antibiotics; and the expansion of irrigated cropland.  In addition to the higher yield, the appearance and shelf life of the new varieties of produce has been also improved. Sadly, the nutritional value of that high-yield produce has been steadily declining.
 
http://www.fao.org/docrep/U3550t/u3550t02.htm

[Alan Klein]

So, despite the warmer weather and all the other problems, the population has grown multifold since the Industrial Revolution and all the global warming began. So how is warmer weather going to make man extinct?

[scyth]

So how is warmer weather going to make man extinct?

How far can you bend a guitar string before it snaps ?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

So, despite the warmer weather and all the other problems, the population has grown multifold since the Industrial Revolution and all the global warming began. So how is warmer weather going to make man extinct?

Correlation does not equal causation.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

Correlation does not equal causation.

Cheers,
Bart

Are you talking about CO2 levels and global warming?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Are you talking about CO2 levels and global warming?

You act slower than you really are. Very predictable.

In a nutshell. Solar radiation causes warming, CO2 traps the longer wavelength radiation that is reflected from the earth's surface and clouds, warmer air can contain more water vapor, CO2 and water vapor both are greenhouse gasses that have complementary absorption spectra that thus indirectly raise the average temperature more than each one can on its own. The warming itself releases more CO2 from the oceans. Some CO2 is absorbed by plants, earth erosion, and the oceans in a natural equilibrium. Excess CO2 will cause global warming. So increasing CO2 levels are an indication that too much CO2 is released too fast into the air, the ecosystem cannot process it fast enough, the feedback-loop is out of balance.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. This video can be helpful even for the 'slower' readers of this forum:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52KLGqDSAjo&index=1&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP

[Alan Klein]

Are you talking about CO2 levels and global warming?

  I didn't mean that correlation.  I meant to say the correlation that someone claimed that species particularly mankind would die because of global warming and I rejected that correlation and stated the fact that mankind has increased since recent global warming.  So the correlation if any shows an advantage to warming.

[Alan Klein]

While a raising sea might cause problems for many people, overall, the warming trend will provide more arable land for food production and natural areas open to expansion to humans, flies, trees, bears, wolves, birds, and insects.  These areas were closed off before because it's been too cold there. 

Even coral reefs might expand.  It depends on whether the new areas that have gotten warmer to support corals are greater than the current areas that will diminish because it's too hot.  Just think, we might even have a Great Barrier Reef off the Eastern USA.  I might be able to snorkel over reefs in New Jersey where I live some day. Now wouldn't that be something?

[Alan Klein]

So much for Germany's Angela Merkle's hypocritical complaints about US pulling out of the Paris Accord.  Just like Germany's lying NATO promises about the 2% for defense, Germany is willing to hide their pollution and global warming so it doesn't hurt their economy.  This is one of the reasons why Trump pulled out.  Because other countries cheat.

From the article, "Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany is under pressure amid criticism that her government has long coddled carmakers and ignored signs that nearly all diesel vehicles in Europe emit more harmful nitrogen oxides in normal use than regulations allow."

Full link: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/18/business/daimler-diesel-emissions.html?_r=0

[LesPalenik]

  I didn't mean that correlation.  I meant to say the correlation that someone claimed that species particularly mankind would die because of global warming and I rejected that correlation and stated the fact that mankind has increased since recent global warming. So the correlation if any shows an advantage to warming.

This is a great example, that shows slowly increasing numbers until it comes to a cusp at which the earth can't sustain the ever increasing numbers and everything comes crashing down.
Personally, I don't see any advantage to the warming, conversions of forests to arable land, or more congestion in the country and cities.

As of now, the current world population is already three times the sustainable level.

If we allow overpopulation and overconsumption to continue, the evidence is mounting that billions will suffer and that we will leave future generations a much harder, bleaker life.

http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

[Alan Klein]

This is a great example, that shows slowly increasing numbers until it comes to a cusp at which the earth can't sustain the ever increasing numbers and everything comes crashing down. Personally, I don't see any advantage to the warming or more congestion in the country or cities.

http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/3_times_sustainable

When I retired, I came to New Jersey farm and horse country leaving congested and polluted NYC behind.  Now I'm waiting for the coral reefs to grow from global warming off the Jersey shore so I can go snorkeling.  I was also hoping that rising seas would make my house waterfront property.  Well, I'm still waiting for that too.  However, in the meanwhile, they're building new homes all over the place.  The traffic is getting crazy.  The property taxes are going up for all the kids that need schools.  Food seem to be in good supply though and we have plenty of potable water.  The supermarkets seem well stocked with food from around the world.  What was seasonable years ago, is now stocked 365 days a year as imported fruits and vegetables abound.   

Modern living doesn't mean population increases though.  Italy and Japan are falling as are many other countries in Europe and elsewhere.  China's effort previously to limit children to one just created 50 million more men than women so the men can't find wives and have to pleasure themselves.  Now China has removed that restriction.  I guess one of the leaders was having trouble finding a mate. 

I remember back in the 1960's when everyone was concerned with overpopulation.  There was going to be mass starvation, 100's of millions would die.  All sorts of science academies supported the theory.  Well it never happened.  Although our population is about double what they predicted would cause mass starvation, it never happened.  While lots of people are still in a bad situation (mainly because of distribution problems not the amount of food available). the undernourished rate has fallen from 33% to 16%.

The point being that science is often wrong and dire consequences don't happen. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

[LesPalenik]

they're building new homes all over the place.  The traffic is getting crazy.  The property taxes are going up for all the kids that need schools.  Food seem to be in good supply though and we have plenty of potable water.  The supermarkets seem well stocked with food from around the world.  What was seasonable years ago, is now stocked 365 days a year as imported fruits and vegetables abound.   

As with many other things, whether it is the human population or big farm food, quantity doesn't equate quality.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

  I didn't mean that correlation.  I meant to say the correlation that someone claimed that species particularly mankind would die because of global warming and I rejected that correlation and stated the fact that mankind has increased since recent global warming.  So the correlation if any shows an advantage to warming.

You are making up a correlation between global warming and population growth, which is nonsense.

The effects of e.g. antibiotics (penicillin and later developments) and vaccinations (think about the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected 500 million people around the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and resulted in the deaths of 50 to 100 million (three to five percent of the world's population)), public sewage systems (cholera outbreaks occurred in 1832, 1849 and 1855 in London, killing tens of thousands of people, before sewage systems were developed), etc., do have an effect on life expectancy and population growth.

To try and find a correlation between warming and population growth is rather moronic.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

You are making up a correlation between global warming and population growth, which is nonsense.

The effects of e.g. antibiotics (penicillin and later developments) and vaccinations (think about the 1918 flu pandemic, which infected 500 million people around the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and resulted in the deaths of 50 to 100 million (three to five percent of the world's population)), public sewage systems (cholera outbreaks occurred in 1832, 1849 and 1855 in London, killing tens of thousands of people, before sewage systems were developed), etc., do have an effect on life expectancy and population growth.

To try and find a correlation between warming and population growth is rather moronic.

Cheers,
Bart

Bart, I made a comparative statement to someone else's theory that apparently you didn't understand. Must be the language barrier.  Can't you object without calling me names?

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Bart, I made a comparative statement to someone else's theory that apparently you didn't understand. Must be the language barrier.  Can't you object without calling me names?

Alan, By using "someone else's" comparison without clarifying your take on it, one can only assume you endorse it. When I qualify that comparison as moronic (which it is), then you do not need to take it as personal if you disagree with the comparison.

So that leaves me with a simple question; Do you think that Global warming leads to population growth?
I'm open for valid arguments that might support such a statement (for the sake of free discussion), but I'll judge the arguments on their merits ...

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

Alan, By using "someone else's" comparison without clarifying your take on it, one can only assume you endorse it. When I qualify that comparison as moronic (which it is), then you do not need to take it as personal if you disagree with the comparison.

So that leaves me with a simple question; Do you think that Global warming leads to population growth?
I'm open for valid arguments that might support such a statement (for the sake of free discussion), but I'll judge the arguments on their merits ...

Cheers,
Bart

Well, when you say that a person's statement is moronic, well only a moron would make a moronic statement.  It's a little indelicate to use that word.  How about illogical or contradictory? 

Regarding global warming and population, someone previously made the statement that global warming could cause the collapse of the human population.  I was making the point that if the two were tied, then one could argue that since the population has been expanding exponentially since the industrial revolution, one could argue that warming is helping increase the population.  I wasn't saying it was my theory.

However, in thinking about it now, it could well be that warming has helped the human race.  It's possible that the mini Ice Age of a few hundred years ago caused lots of stress on humans because of crop failures.  Population declined.  Once it warmed up again and stress ameliorated, the populations started to increase as food production was restored.  I have not done any research into this, but it seems logical.  Maybe someone else has some facts on this.  Extending my point, if global warming continues to allow food production to increase as more land becomes arable, then population would expand even more.  Certainly if one was to check world food production, it has increased all through the latest warming trend.  Why would we think it would suddenly decline if warming continued?