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Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 213804 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #620 on: July 11, 2017, 02:03:26 pm »

I guess I fall into the category of having imagination and understanding, regarding climate change. What category are you in, Bart?  ;)

I'm a realist. Try understanding Global Warming from the attached charts (source). Unlike you, I do not try to deny it is happening.

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #621 on: July 11, 2017, 02:22:56 pm »

...
But gasoline is so cheap in North America that it almost guarantees that we plan our transportation badly. We seem to be incapable of long-term planning horizons, and yet that's exactly what's needed.
  A while ago, America had the oil depletion allowance. That would allow big oil companies to reduce their taxes based on the theory that the oil they were pumping out of the ground was depleting the wells location. They should be entitled to some sort of tax credit. So poor schnooks made Rockefeller even richer.  KaChing.

Today we are giving away tax subsidies of $7,500 federal  plus $2,000 in New York state to buy an electric car. So now we're subsidizing the Elon Musk's of the world and making them even richer billionaires. KaChing.

No wonder he's upset at Trump dropping out of Paris.   He's going to be"poorer"

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #622 on: July 11, 2017, 02:57:04 pm »

  A while ago, America had the oil depletion allowance. That would allow big oil companies to reduce their taxes based on the theory that the oil they were pumping out of the ground was depleting the wells location. They should be entitled to some sort of tax credit. So poor schnooks made Rockefeller even richer.  KaChing.

Today we are giving away tax subsidies of $7,500 federal  plus $2,000 in New York state to buy an electric car. So now we're subsidizing the Elon Musk's of the world and making them even richer billionaires. KaChing.

No wonder he's upset at Trump dropping out of Paris.   He's going to be"poorer"
you see, whether it's Rockefeller or Elon Musk, the elites make it work for them. It's the poor schnooks like us who have to pay the freight. That's why Trump won. Because the average guy is not getting a good deal. They're being screwed. Sanders is just like Trump. He saw at the same thing. It's just that he lost. But Hillary is also part of the elite which is why she lost.

The Democrats are going to change their tune for 2018. They going to take up very same policies that the Republicans did in trying to favor the average white guy middle-class guy who's out of a job or got crappy jobs. That's what's going to happen in 2018.  The democrats will drop climate change in their platform or diminish it greatly.   Coal will suddenly seem cleaner to them.  They'll be seeing it sparkle.    New gas pipelines will suddenly be attractive.   The dems platform motto will be: "Subsidies  for Fracking ."

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #623 on: July 11, 2017, 03:54:59 pm »

Were out of Paris.   Its phony.   You can send your money to China of you want too.  If you're that concerned about global warming,  do the right thing and shut off your air conditioner and sell your automobile.
Why do you brawl nonsence and forget to answer the very simple question I asked you in this post you're answering?

Btw, our car is a hybrid running 5 liters (not gallons) to 100 km and we don't have an air conditioner and are installing solar panels. All this without any grants or subsidy, all economically justified on their own merits. So I think we're on the right track, how about you? The US is emitting 20 times the Netherlands and Belgium together (total, since that's your yardstick) and more then twice per capita. So time to get off your butt and do something about it, and preferably find a way to do it without taxpayer money. Once you're at the same level (and I'll allow that to be per capita) you are entitled to point fingers at others, but before that it's just a cheap excuse to get the attention diverted from the energy inefficiency of your country.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #624 on: July 11, 2017, 04:07:27 pm »

I'm not willing to give up my car or air conditioner.   Sorry.

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #625 on: July 11, 2017, 04:15:13 pm »

I'm not willing to give up my car or air conditioner.   Sorry.
Then stop blaming China and India for their "so called" increases which you present out of context in a "fake news" fashion.
Earlier in this thread I called the US position towards the Paris accord selfish, thank you very much for giving all readers here the proof I was right.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #626 on: July 11, 2017, 11:21:31 pm »

Why do you brawl nonsence and forget to answer the very simple question I asked you in this post you're answering?

Btw, our car is a hybrid running 5 liters (not gallons) to 100 km and we don't have an air conditioner and are installing solar panels. All this without any grants or subsidy, all economically justified on their own merits. So I think we're on the right track, how about you? The US is emitting 20 times the Netherlands and Belgium together (total, since that's your yardstick) and more then twice per capita. So time to get off your butt and do something about it, and preferably find a way to do it without taxpayer money. Once you're at the same level (and I'll allow that to be per capita) you are entitled to point fingers at others, but before that it's just a cheap excuse to get the attention diverted from the energy inefficiency of your country.
Amsterdam and much of Europe especially northern Europe is much cooler than most of the USA and certainly where I live in New Jersey 40 miles south of NYC.    While people in Vermont and other northern states often don't have AC's, everyone down where I live and south have AC's.  Today Amsterdam had a high of 69F degrees (20.6 C).  We had a high of 92F degrees (33 C). That's 23F (12.4C) higher here. Your low was 61 degrees F (16C).  Our low was 72F degrees (22C) (last night).  Right now at 11pm, it's still 79F (26C).  The relative humidity is 83% which adds to the heat load and AC requirements.  My house needs 4 tons of air conditioning in New Jersey to cool 2100 square feet  (195 sq meters) (excluding the garage - it's not heated or cooled).  My electric bill in July or august is 3-4 times my electric bill in Jan or Feb because of the need for electric cooling.  Heating in the winter is much cheaper since we use clean natural gas  heating.  We also use natural gas for hot water heating and for the clothes drier. 

The point is, if I lived in a cooler climate like you, I'd be able to reduce my utility bills by about 40% and electricity use by at least 50%.  I shop my utility company to keep costs down.  But the fact is you can't really survive here without air conditioning.

Regarding cars, I plead guilty to wanting luxury and comfort and safety and giving up mileage.  We drive around 15000 miles per year at 23 miles per gallon average although we get 30 miles per gallon on the road.     But both cars are Japanese made Acura's.  So I am transferring wealth to foreigners already.    If the Chinese want my money, they'll have to earn it and make better cars than the Japanese. 

As an aside, China bought 24 million cars in 2016 vs. 17 million in America.  So the poor Chinese are apparently richer than the poorer Americans.  So why aren't you insisting they meet Paris standard before 2030 like other countries?  They apparently have bamboozled the world.  You should insist on changing the accord.  While your standard of living goes down, they're laughing all the way to the bank. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #627 on: July 12, 2017, 12:18:53 am »

So the recent National Geographic History channel show of a few days ago about the disappearance of Amelia Earhart was an apparent hoax generated by an FBI researcher who spent 27 years trying to find out what happened to the famous female flyer.   I guess he needed the money.  Of course NatGeo is a trusted source especially when it comes to the Earth and the environment.  But one wonders if this researcher assisted in the research of Global Warming??  I mean, you just can't trust anyone these days.  :)
http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/question-raised-timeline-amelia-earhart-documentary-48573097

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #628 on: July 12, 2017, 12:43:48 am »

For those Northern Europeans, what's the climate going to be like Sept 1-12?  My wife on I are planning a 9 day cruise around the Baltic Sea to cool off.  All this talk about Global Warming gave us the urge. We'll spend the first night in Copenhagen.  Then leave on the ship for 9 days and stop at Berlin (what's Warnemunde?), Talinn, St. Petersburg, Helsinki, Stockholm then back to Copenhagen .  We'll spend another two nights in Copenhagen hotel before returning to the US.

My wife insisted on air conditioning in the hotels. ;)

So will it be too hot, mild, good for land tours, etc.  Any recommendations?  What about photography?  Do the stops seem interesting  enough? 

Since I'll be raising the thermostat in my home while I'm away, I figure that's my contribution to reduce global warming and cleaning up the environment.  In the spirit of re-distributing wealth, we'll be leaving dollars in some of the Scandinavian countries.  I think it's too far to visit our LuLa partners in Amsterdam, I'm afraid, but I wish we could and then we could meet you for lunch.

https://www.ncl.com/cruises/9-Day-Scandinavia,-Russia-&-Baltic-from-Copenhagen?itineraryCode=GETAWAY9CPHWARTLLLEDHELSTOCPH

Thanks  Alan

Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #629 on: July 12, 2017, 01:10:42 am »

I'm a realist. Try understanding Global Warming from the attached charts (source). Unlike you, I do not try to deny it is happening.

Cheers,
Bart


So, after all this time, Bart, and after so many posts on the issue, you think I've been denying that climate change is happening?  ;)

I thought I'd made it very clear that I accept that climate is always changing, for a multitude of reasons that are not always fully understood, and sometimes for reasons that scientists are possibly not even aware exist. That's realism.

My skepticism is about issues such as the claimed, alarmist, harmful effects of the current slight warming of around 0.8 degrees centigrade during the past century, and the the claimed certainty that human emissions of CO2 are the main driving force behind such changes in average global temperature.

Is that now clear?  ;)
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LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #630 on: July 12, 2017, 01:25:38 am »

For those Northern Europeans, what's the climate going to be like Sept 1-12?  My wife on I are planning a 9 day cruise around the Baltic Sea to cool off.  All this talk about Global Warming gave us the urge. We'll spend the first night in Copenhagen.  Then leave on the ship for 9 days and stop at Berlin (what's Warnemunde?), Talinn, St. Petersburg, Helsinki, Stockholm then back to Copenhagen .  We'll spend another two nights in Copenhagen hotel before returning to the US.

https://www.ncl.com/cruises/9-Day-Scandinavia,-Russia-&-Baltic-from-Copenhagen?itineraryCode=GETAWAY9CPHWARTLLLEDHELSTOCPH

Thanks  Alan

Warnemunde is quite a way from Berlin. It's the German version of South Miami Beach in the northern end of city of Rostock on the Baltic Sea.
Nice beach with sand dunes. I camped there a long time ago when it was still under communists. In early September the water temperature is still around 15-16C.
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pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #631 on: July 12, 2017, 02:11:57 am »

The point is, if I lived in a cooler climate like you, I'd be able to reduce my utility bills by about 40% and electricity use by at least 50%.  I shop my utility company to keep costs down.  But the fact is you can't really survive here without air conditioning.
A large part of the US population already lives in a much cooler climate. So if the ones living in the hot zones would reduce by 50% (a number which I doubt, but so be it) the average would still be significantly above other countries. It's a step forward to blame your climate vs. other people who use significantly less energy then you do, but still the logic doesn't hold water.

As an aside, China bought 24 million cars in 2016 vs. 17 million in America.  So the poor Chinese are apparently richer than the poorer Americans.  So why aren't you insisting they meet Paris standard before 2030 like other countries?  They apparently have bamboozled the world.  You should insist on changing the accord.  While your standard of living goes down, they're laughing all the way to the bank.
Populist and fake presentation of facts seems to be your standard, so I'm not going to get into this. It's pointless because you closed your mind to the fact the US population is the biggest emitter of warming gases and you don't want to do anything drastic about that. Just aswer the question I asked you in post 553 and thinking about that will give you the answer why I think the US should do much more and the developing economies can follow later. 
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #632 on: July 12, 2017, 07:24:52 am »

A large part of the US population already lives in a much cooler climate. So if the ones living in the hot zones would reduce by 50% (a number which I doubt, but so be it) the average would still be significantly above other countries. It's a step forward to blame your climate vs. other people who use significantly less energy then you do, but still the logic doesn't hold water.
 Populist and fake presentation of facts seems to be your standard, so I'm not going to get into this. It's pointless because you closed your mind to the fact the US population is the biggest emitter of warming gases and you don't want to do anything drastic about that. Just aswer the question I asked you in post 553 and thinking about that will give you the answer why I think the US should do much more and the developing economies can follow later. 

America isn't selfish.  It's successful.   Rather than trying to drag us down, why don't you support everyone coming up to our standard of living?  Most people in the world are trying to do just that.  They see us and want what we have.  And we're not stopping them. 

In addition, as I presented before, America spends more money and provides more clean energy on a per capita basis than China and every other country in the world except Germany.  So we're in the forefront of clean energy and have been there for years.  So your basic argument is false. 

But you side-stepped my question.  Why does Paris allow China to wait until 2030 to effect changes in their country while the rest of the world starts immediately?  China is the biggest contributor of CO2, by far.  China will have the biggest economy in the world surpassing Amreica in just a few years.  Yet Paris doesn't hold them to the same standards.  Why?

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #633 on: July 12, 2017, 07:45:13 am »

America isn't selfish.  It's successful.   Rather than trying to drag us down, why don't you support everyone coming up to our standard of living?  Most people in the world are trying to do just that.  They see us and want what we have.  And we're not stopping them. 

In addition, as I presented before, America spends more money and provides more clean energy on a per capita basis than China and every other country in the world except Germany.  So we're in the forefront of clean energy and have been there for years.  So your basic argument is false. 

But you side-stepped my question.  Why does Paris allow China to wait until 2030 to effect changes in their country while the rest of the world starts immediately?  China is the biggest contributor of CO2, by far.  China will have the biggest economy in the world surpassing Amreica in just a few years.  Yet Paris doesn't hold them to the same standards.  Why?

Alan, you should become a second hand car salesman, showing off the worst performance as the best since sliced bread.

I'm not dragging you down, just calling you out on the worst performance in warming gas emissions. I agree it's not popular to go against Trumpists, but it has to be done ;)

People are aspiring to your standard of living, but not to your inefficient use of energy and high emissions

You might be at the forefront of clean energy, but you need to do a lot more because you're still a laggard if you look at the bottom line result

China is allowed to wait because they're still far behind other countries like the US in emissions (per capita), and they are taking measures to reduce (which you conveniently forget every time), but they are also allowed to increase in other areas to further develop their economy. Something other countries (incl. the US) have already done by spewing many tons of CO2 in the air which allready increased the concentration above the equilibrium amount.

But you still sidestepped my earlier question, but I guess you'll never answer it.
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #634 on: July 12, 2017, 08:06:35 am »

For those Northern Europeans, what's the climate going to be like Sept 1-12?  My wife on I are planning a 9 day cruise around the Baltic Sea to cool off.  All this talk about Global Warming gave us the urge. We'll spend the first night in Copenhagen.  Then leave on the ship for 9 days and stop at Berlin (what's Warnemunde?), Talinn, St. Petersburg, Helsinki, Stockholm then back to Copenhagen .  We'll spend another two nights in Copenhagen hotel before returning to the US.

My wife insisted on air conditioning in the hotels. ;)

So will it be too hot, mild, good for land tours, etc.  Any recommendations?  What about photography?  Do the stops seem interesting  enough? 

Since I'll be raising the thermostat in my home while I'm away, I figure that's my contribution to reduce global warming and cleaning up the environment.  In the spirit of re-distributing wealth, we'll be leaving dollars in some of the Scandinavian countries.  I think it's too far to visit our LuLa partners in Amsterdam, I'm afraid, but I wish we could and then we could meet you for lunch.

https://www.ncl.com/cruises/9-Day-Scandinavia,-Russia-&-Baltic-from-Copenhagen?itineraryCode=GETAWAY9CPHWARTLLLEDHELSTOCPH

Thanks  Alan

Enjoy your trip Alan & Mrs. Alan, only thing I can say is you probably don't need air conditioning in hotels at that time of year :). But there's always the option not to switch it on ;)

Day max temperature should be in the high teens, lower twenties (centigrade) in the first half of september. Nights will be in the low teens/high single numbers. This all assumes somewhere near "normal" weather. However to date the summer here has been a little warmer and dryer then normal.

Places you visit look great for photography if you're into historic towns and/or interesting architecture. Landscapes might be more challenging if you need to be back on the boat every afternoon in time for departure.

Warnemunde is a coast town, about 240 km north of Berlin.

From the towns you are visiting I've only recently visited Helsinki. There's some very interesting churches there and also the design museum is worth a visit (if you like stuff like that).
The first two pages and next 3 pictures of this SmugMug gallery are from my visit there in November 2014, might give you an impression of what you would want to look for there.

In case you have any more questions just ask.
 
« Last Edit: July 12, 2017, 08:10:30 am by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #635 on: July 12, 2017, 08:08:41 am »

Pieter, your question:
============================================================

« Reply #553 on: July 06, 2017, 02:58:42 PM »

Quote

Quote from: Alan Klein on July 06, 2017, 02:47:14 PM
And they are contributing double the amount of CO2 that the US does and it's going even higher.

Your quote: Alan, please stop this nonsense argument. The US people are producing double the amount of CO2 vs. the Chinese people, why do you deny them that right? Is it because the US has taken all the flexibility out of the system with your historic high emmissions? In my mind it's selfish and unjustified, so it fits the Trump agenda pretty well.
=======================================================

I've already answered this ten times.  Who cares about per capita?  Because China had Communism for decades and their people were kept in the dark ages, the rest of the world should apologize for moving ahead?  we should reward the Communists for killing twenty million of their people?  In any case, the fact is China today is producing 31% of the world's CO2 against America's 14%.  Paris should hold them to the same standards as the rest of the world.  Americans don't want to work for the Chinese so they can get richer by agreeing to the unfair Paris Accord.  We and you are already making them richer due to unfair trade.  But that's another matter Trump will hopefully correct.

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #636 on: July 12, 2017, 08:12:10 am »

Warnemunde is quite a way from Berlin. It's the German version of South Miami Beach in the northern end of city of Rostock on the Baltic Sea.
Nice beach with sand dunes. I camped there a long time ago when it was still under communists. In early September the water temperature is still around 15-16C.
I wonder why the boat goes there.  Oh well.  Thanks for the info.

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #637 on: July 12, 2017, 08:14:47 am »

Enjoy your trip Alan & Mrs. Alan, only thing I can say is you probably don't need air conditioning in hotels at that time of year :). But there's always the option not to switch it on ;)

Day max temperature should be in the high teens, lower twenties (centigrade) in the first half of september. Nights will be in the low teens/high single numbers. This all assumes somewhere near "normal" weather. However to date the summer here has been a little warmer and dryer then normal.

Places you visit look great for photography if you're into historic towns and/or interesting architecture. Landscapes might be more challenging if you need to be back on the boat every afternoon in time for departure.

Warnemunde is a coast town, about 240 km north of Berlin.

From the towns you are visiting I've only recently visited Helsinki. There's some very interesting churches there and also the design museum is worth a visit (if you like stuff like that).
The first two pages and next 3 pictures of this SmugMug gallery are from my visit there in November 2014, might give you an impression of what you would want to look for there.

In case you have any more questions just ask.
 
I like the rose.  Thanks for the info.

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #638 on: July 12, 2017, 08:22:46 am »

Pieter, your question:
============================================================

« Reply #553 on: July 06, 2017, 02:58:42 PM »

Quote

Quote from: Alan Klein on July 06, 2017, 02:47:14 PM
And they are contributing double the amount of CO2 that the US does and it's going even higher.

Your quote: Alan, please stop this nonsense argument. The US people are producing double the amount of CO2 vs. the Chinese people, why do you deny them that right? Is it because the US has taken all the flexibility out of the system with your historic high emmissions? In my mind it's selfish and unjustified, so it fits the Trump agenda pretty well.
=======================================================

I've already answered this ten times.  Who cares about per capita?  Because China had Communism for decades and their people were kept in the dark ages, the rest of the world should apologize for moving ahead?  we should reward the Communists for killing twenty million of their people?  In any case, the fact is China today is producing 31% of the world's CO2 against America's 14%.  Paris should hold them to the same standards as the rest of the world.  Americans don't want to work for the Chinese so they can get richer by agreeing to the unfair Paris Accord.  We and you are already making them richer due to unfair trade.  But that's another matter Trump will hopefully correct.
First of all, I've explained many times why the per capita measurement is the measure we should use as a yardstick. Total by country is meaningless, since to fairly distribute you need to take size into account.

Secondly that's not an answer to my question: You (on average) emit 16 tons of CO2 per year, A Chinese person less then half of that. Why do you point fingers at them and deny them the right to go up a little. The fact they are with more should not be held against them. And if the communists indeed killed 20 million people their per capita increases, so it's a negative on their side of the equation. Basically you're saying "I deny them the right to emit as much as I do because they are with more people".

If Paris should keep everybody to the same standard (for instance a fixed amount of CO2 per person ;) ) the US should drop significantly and the developing economies have some room to grow. That would be fair and holding everyone to the same standard, but the way you want the standard applied you reward the inefficient countries by allowing to stay constant or only drop mildly thereby denying developing countries to grow. You're out of Paris because you don't want to do that (btw, the Paris accord didn't even go that far) and since the US is a sovereign country there's litte we can do about it. But don't ask us to like it or agree with the quirky logic that you use to defend the decision.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2017, 08:29:31 am by pegelli »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #639 on: July 12, 2017, 08:32:19 am »

America isn't selfish.  It's successful.   Rather than trying to drag us down, why don't you support everyone coming up to our standard of living?  Most people in the world are trying to do just that.  They see us and want what we have.  And we're not stopping them.

If you mean that, then you're okay with China and India using coal-powered energy? 

Quote
In addition, as I presented before, America spends more money and provides more clean energy on a per capita basis than China and every other country in the world except Germany.  So we're in the forefront of clean energy and have been there for years.  So your basic argument is false.

Not really, it's just that you got a head start on developing countries, or countries with fewer opportunities or fewer means. It's those same countries that you, in earlier posts, wanted to deny the possibility to grow using cheap energy.

It's a good thing that countries like China are bringing the production/investment cost of e.g. PhotoVoltaic cells down, so it will soon be a cheaper alternative to fossil fuelled energy, thus rendering the Coal industry mostly obsolete (except for emergency and backup situations). In fact, China has halted some of the Coal plant construction plans to build more Wind-powered energy generation sites in 2018, because it has become more economical.

Quote
But you side-stepped my question.  Why does Paris allow China to wait until 2030 to effect changes in their country while the rest of the world starts immediately?

It doesn't. It does do two things, it recognizes the need for China to produce lots of power (more than current Renewables can generate) and it urges China to increase the share of Renewables in their energy generation mix. It also urges China to use cleaner fossil fuel complementary power by replacing old installation by cleaner more modern ones. China doesn't wait until 2030 at all. It is also ramping up Nuclear power stations to meet the rapidly growing power requirements of the country.


Quote
China is the biggest contributor of CO2, by far.

Again, China also has the largest population, by far. India is also not small. So a more meaningful metric is to view pollution as produced per Capita, but you don't like that because it shows how poor a performer the USA is.

Quote
China will have the biggest economy in the world surpassing America in just a few years.  Yet Paris doesn't hold them to the same standards.  Why?

Why, as explained above. All countries that have signed the Paris Agreement are facing different challenges and have different opportunities, and the accord honors those specific possibilities and constraints. It is quite fair, and that's why virtually all countries signed (except Syria and Nicaragua, and now the USA). Trump's remarks about wanting to negotiate a better deal demonstrates that he doesn't understand what he is talking about. The Paris Agreement is not 'a deal', it's a commitment to creating a better future, for all.

The Chinese economy is currently the third largest if you look at GDP (1. USA, 2. The European Union, 3. China), and they have a huge internal market to serve and feed. Clever countries see an opportunity to sell to the Chinese market, other countries try to frustrate the Chinese. These countries have good a memory for who their friends are. They like to sign Trade Agreements with the EU, like Japan just did, and are actively seeking knowledge about conservation of energy use and improving their energy production capacity. The USA signals that they prefer Coal based solutions and trade deals that are better for the USA alone, so the Chinese will look elsewhere for a while. The USA is closing doors that others are opening and are embracing new opportunities. Isolationism is a thing of the past.

Cheers,
Bart
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