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Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 213749 times)

Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1180 on: September 19, 2017, 11:21:16 pm »

Yes I understand.  But most supporters of climate change incorrectly consider CO2 a pollutant.  So when I said China's addition of CO2 is not so "clean", I was reminding them how bad China is when it comes to their increasing CO2 "pollution".

Okay! They're bad in relation to a misguided concept of bad, which means they are not bad in reality.  ;D
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pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1181 on: September 20, 2017, 06:48:54 am »

You guys like to attribute hurricanes Harvey and Irma to Trump and global warming, so I was thinking you must be forgetting this. So, as a public service, I decided to help you. No good natural event should pass without being linked to global warming.
Who's "you guys"? I've not seen that claim in this thread
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1182 on: September 20, 2017, 07:41:33 am »

Who's "you guys"?...

Ray has a term for it: "misguided, maniacal alarmists" 😀

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1183 on: September 20, 2017, 07:50:49 am »

Ray has a term for it: "misguided, maniacal alarmists" 😀
I meant which poster (or posts) did claim that? What you (and Ray) think about people who say that is abundently clear from your posts, but I haven't seen anybody here saying that.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 07:57:04 am by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1184 on: September 20, 2017, 07:58:19 am »

I meant which poster (or posts) did claim that?...

Just one example, referring to hurricane Harvey (bold mine):

...the policy makers who are instrumental in such tragedies happening more often in the future.

pegelli

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1185 on: September 20, 2017, 08:14:37 am »

Just one example, referring to hurricane Harvey (bold mine):
That's what I thought, saying something is happening more frequently or with a higher magnitude is different from the root cause (in this case for Hurricanes, which is nature). So you're exaggerating to try and make a point, but in my mind you're achieving the opposite.

I don't like climate alarmists (and I agree there are many) but I also don't like religious deniers who will grasp any straw, create a charicature and then critisize the charicature rather then have a more reasoned (and reasonable) reaction on what was really said.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1186 on: September 20, 2017, 08:18:27 am »

This pretty much sums up the two sides of the debate (cannot cut and paste because it is copyright locked):

http://synd.imgsrv.uclick.com/comics/nq/2017/nq170920.gif

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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1187 on: September 20, 2017, 08:20:36 am »

You guys like to attribute hurricanes Harvey and Irma to Trump and global warming, so I was thinking you must be forgetting this. So, as a public service, I decided to help you. No good natural event should pass without being linked to global warming.

In that case I'm assuming you missed what Scientists are really saying: Frequency of occurrence of these weather events goes down a bit globally, but their intensity increases. To spell it out more clearly, the annual hurricane season will (dependng on exact location) not produce more hurricanes, but what used to be a Catagory 3, will now more likely become Category 4, or even 5, leading to more devastation.

The reason that that happens is not strange if you understand how hurricanes evolve, and that they need water temperatures of more than 28 degrees Celsius to feed them and grow on. The water temperatures that fed Harvey, Irma, José and now Mary, are much higher than 28 C, so there's enough energy to let them grow in force and, additionally, produce increasing amounts of precipitation (because the warmer air takes up more moisture before it is dumped). After the passage of these hurricanes, enough heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere that the likelihood of new hurricanes (Tammy, Vince en Whitney) growing in force is reduced, although they may choose a different trajectory if there is still enough warm water available in the region. The ones that have passed all took slightly different trajectories in 'search' for warmer water.

Earthquakes are usually caused by a process known as Plate Tectonics. Climate Change does not cause or speed-up the drifting plates. I think it is not very likely that the rising ocean levels (due to melting land ice and thermal expansion) will have much effect on that process.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 08:30:12 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Eric Myrvaagnes

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1188 on: September 20, 2017, 10:05:04 am »

This pretty much sums up the two sides of the debate (cannot cut and paste because it is copyright locked):

http://synd.imgsrv.uclick.com/comics/nq/2017/nq170920.gif
That does capture the essence, Alan!
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1189 on: September 20, 2017, 10:06:01 am »

... After the passage of these hurricanes, enough heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere that the likelihood of new hurricanes (Tammy, Vince en Whitney) growing in force is reduced, although they may choose a different trajectory if there is still enough warm water available in the region. The ones that have passed all took slightly different trajectories in 'search' for warmer water.....

Cheers,
Bart

Proof that that is the reason quantity of hurricanes goes down? 

As an aside, how do we know that earthquakes under the ocean where the plates shift one on top of the other isn't causing the sea level to rise? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1190 on: September 20, 2017, 10:11:08 am »

Proof that that is the reason quantity of hurricanes goes down? 

As an aside, how do we know that earthquakes under the ocean where the plates shift one on top of the other isn't causing the sea level to rise? 

If one hurricane of major strength is the reason that quantity of storms decreases, how would you account for two Cat 5 hurricanes, Irma and Maria (with J, K and L in between) one immediately following the other within 2 weeks?  It seems there should be another reason for the decrease in quantities if the earth's temperature goes up..

Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1191 on: September 20, 2017, 10:42:37 am »

Now here's some interesting news from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
I'll highlight a few pertinent points.

"Prof. GE Quansheng and his group from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, collected a large number of proxies and reconstructed a 2000-year temperature series in China with a 10-year resolution, enabling them to quantitatively reveal the characteristics of temperature change in China over a common era."
"We found four warm epochs, which were AD 1 to AD 200, AD 550 to AD 760, AD 950 to AD 1300, and the 20th century. Cold periods occurred between AD 210 and AD 350, AD 420 and AD 530, AD 780 and AD 940, and AD 1320 and AD 1900. The temperature amplitude between the warmest and coldest decades was 1.3°C," said Prof. GE."


"The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change historically were negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. For example, 25 of the 31 most prosperous periods in imperial China during the past 2000 years occurred during periods of warmth or warming. A cooling trend at the centennial scale and social economic decline run hand-in-hand. The rapid development supported by better resources and a better environment in warm periods could lead to an increase in social vulnerability when the climate turns once more to being relatively colder."

http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/201708/t20170808_181809.shtml

Perhaps it's now time for Michael Mann to apologize for his misleading Hockey Stick graph. On the other hand, I suspect he will he continue in his state of denial about the global significance of the Medieval Warm Period.  ;)

However, I do see some reason for optimism in the drive towards renewables. At some point in the future, when renewables become economically competitive with fossil fuel energy and perhaps eventually completely replace fossil fuels, there will exist huge reserves of fossil fuels in the ground for future use.

When the climate starts on its next cooling phase, and it is realized that human produced CO2 emissions had a relatively small, and perhaps insignificant effect on the previous warm period during the 20th and early 21st centuries, we will then have at our disposal far greater sources of energy to tackle the adverse effects of a cooling climate.

Once the scare about CO2 has been conquered, we can begin to build new, cleaner and more efficient coal and gas-fired power stations to provide mankind with abundant energy to solve all our problems of poverty, food shortages, inadequate housing and infrastructure which is vulnerable to natural hurricanes and floods, and so on.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1192 on: September 20, 2017, 11:12:05 am »

Proof that that is the reason quantity of hurricanes goes down?

Alan, Science is all about observations, it all starts there. The fact that their frequency of occurrence is going down is an observation, although the relatively few hurricanes cause the statistics to have broader ranges of likelihood (standard deviation is larger with small population sample sizes), making their predictions to have larger error margins.

The reason for the number going down can be multifold (like changing sea and air currents at various depths/heights). I've not studied the literature as for all the possible reasons, but I'd not be surprised that when the preceding hurricane more violently stirs up the water surface, it will mix more cooler water from larger depths with the surface water, thus robbing the surface from even more temperature needed for the next hurricane. So it's not just the building hurricane itself that extracts heat, but also more and cooler deep water being added to the surface water mix.

Quote
As an aside, how do we know that earthquakes under the ocean where the plates shift one on top of the other isn't causing the sea level to rise?

Because there is too much water to be impacted by the SLOOOW moving plates, the effect will be very small. In the case of e.g. Mexico, I believe we're talking about sliding, locking and releasing tension and grinding/breaking-off, by something like 6-8 cm/year in the horizontal direction. A vertical displacement, under gravity and with large mass/pressure/liquifying is probably much less, and plates move down (called subduction) and up when they silde under/over each other.

Maybe you are thinking about e.g. the Himalayas which were pushed up by the colliding tectonic plates of India (pushed down into the earth's mantle) and Eurasia (pushed/crumbled up). But also do not forget that the Geologically relatively fast movement (10 cm/year) towards each other, took 120 million years, and nowadays has slowed down to 2 cm/year. The current sea level rise that can be observed is very much faster and is almost fully explained by adding the volume of land-ice meltwater and thermal expansion. These measurable/known quantities fit the observations and are considered to be the two main driving forces.




Is sea level rising?
Yes, sea level is rising at an increasing rate.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
Quote from: NOAA
The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets. The oceans are absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity.

and

Quote
Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to local factors such as land subsidence from natural processes and withdrawal of groundwater and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 11:32:25 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1193 on: September 20, 2017, 11:21:52 am »

If one hurricane of major strength is the reason that quantity of storms decreases, how would you account for two Cat 5 hurricanes, Irma and Maria (with J, K and L in between) one immediately following the other within 2 weeks?  It seems there should be another reason for the decrease in quantities if the earth's temperature goes up..

The reason for multiple Category 5 hurricanes is that the conditions for their development were favorable. Originating near Africa, they had plenty of time, little disturbance along their path, and plenty of warm water to build up force. Therefore I suppose it was enabled by the abundance of heat, but once the heat was used up locally, the next hurricane had to use the other warm water and thus follow a slightly different trajectory. Eventually, the activity will peter out because the energy is depleted to below 28 Celsius water temperature, waiting for next year's summer to heat it up again.

Cheers,
Bart
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texshooter

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1194 on: September 20, 2017, 08:01:33 pm »



Perhaps the cat 5 hurricanes were caused by the gravitational field of planet Nibiru due to hit Earth Sep 23, 2017.

No?  Don't you believe in teaching the controversy?

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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1195 on: September 20, 2017, 08:34:01 pm »


Perhaps the cat 5 hurricanes were caused by the gravitational field of planet Nibiru due to hit Earth Sep 23, 2017.

No?  Don't you believe in teaching the controversy?

Which controversy?  :)

Cheers,
Bart
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Farmer

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1196 on: September 20, 2017, 09:10:25 pm »

As an aside, how do we know that earthquakes under the ocean where the plates shift one on top of the other isn't causing the sea level to rise?

If you bang on the bottom of a container of water does the level of water rise and stay risen?

Apart from that, "Archimedes".

And this is why it's pointless having a discussion about science with you - you don't understand some of the most basic principles, let alone complex systems, but you think you do.  It's sad.
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Phil Brown

Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1197 on: September 20, 2017, 09:58:07 pm »

If you bang on the bottom of a container of water does the level of water rise and stay risen?

Apart from that, "Archimedes".

And this is why it's pointless having a discussion about science with you - you don't understand some of the most basic principles, let alone complex systems, but you think you do.  It's sad.

I'm reminded of that quote, "There are no bad students, only bad teachers." Anyone know the origin of that quote? Was it Napoleon, perhaps?
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Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1198 on: September 20, 2017, 10:01:42 pm »

Hey! Some good news for you alarmists. This could be good for your mental health.  ;)

"Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.
The Earth warmed more slowly than the models forecast, meaning the planet has a slightly better chance of meeting the goals set out in the Paris climate agreement, including limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s authors told The Times: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.”


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-paris-climate-agreement-nature-geoscience-myles-allen-michael-grubb-a7954496.html
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texshooter

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1199 on: September 21, 2017, 12:43:52 am »


"Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.

That study does not square with the Consensus.  You can disregard it.

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