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Author Topic: The Climate Change Hoax  (Read 116275 times)

Ray

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The Climate Change Hoax
« on: March 22, 2017, 12:23:04 am »

I've been reluctant to start a new thread on this topic because I understand there's a lot of emotional/religious views that prevail, and most people seem unable to investigate the issue for themselves, and think for themselves.

If one is scientifically illiterate, as most politicians are and most members of the public are, it's understandable that most people will simply accept the media reports that there is a 97% consensus among climatologists that CO2 increases could cause catastrophic changes in climate.

Such people are not able to understand or appreciate the validity of alternative views. They probably are not even aware of the basic processes of the scientific method, consisting of attempts at falsification in order to prove a particular theory is at least provisionally correct.

If one can't set up experiments to falsify a particular theory, and one can't conduct repeated experiments in real time to confirm that the results are consistent with a particular theory, then the theory has to remain a hypothesis.

That our current warming phase is mostly caused by our CO2 enissions is a hypothesis, not proven.

The idea, if we reduce CO2 levels like using a control knob, then our climate will become benign and we don't have to worry about extreme weather events, is a total nonsense.
History has shown that extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, combined with gradual changes in average temperature, have destroyed many civilizations in the past. These were natural climate changes which had nothing to do with human caused CO2 emissions.

It is only sensible and rational to presume that such natural changes in climate will continue, irrespective of tiny increases in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, such as the current level of 0.04% as opposed to 0.028% in preindustrial times.

A society which spends trillions of dollars trying to reduce CO2 levels from 0.04% to 0.028% whilst failing to protect its citizens from natural and expected climate disasters, is doomed for failure.

Our prosperity and well-being is dependent upon energy resources and the way we use them. The cheaper the energy resources and the more efficiently we use them, the more prosperous we become, on average.

However, having said that, the cost of the energy supplies should always take into consideration the external costs of real pollution, which includes the adverse effects on health of emissions such as Nitrogen Oxides, Mercury, Arsenic, lead, carbon monoxide etc.

Modern coal power plants, such as the ultra-supercritical variety, reduce such harmful emissions to virtually zero. But they don't reduce CO2 levels to near zero, so for that reason these modern coal plants are not as popular as they should be. They eliminate the known harmful chemical emissions, but they only partially reduce that clear, odourless, harmless to human health, CO2, which is essential for all life and has a beneficial effect on general crop growth, and which greens our planet.

At a more philosophical level, the problem with past civilizations which have been destroyed by climate change, is their failure to adapt to the changes. Such civilizations probably had little knowledge of previous climate changes, as we do. We have the advantage of being able to prepare for such changes in light of our greater knowledge of past events.
Trying to fix the problem by reducing atmospheric CO2 levels at great expense, which represent only 0.04% of the astmosphere, is plain foolish.

However, that does not mean I am opposed to the development of alternative energy supplies. Energy supplies, and the true cost of such energy, is fundamental to our prosperity and well-being.

Energy from the sun, through the development of efficient and durable PVP panels, is a great invention, equivalent to the development of the digital camera, in some respects.
I have a solar panel on my roof, and get a credit of double the normal electricity price when my panel feeds electricity back into the grid. I'm very pleased with that. When I go overseas on a photographic expedition, my house is generating electricity credits every day. My next 2 or 3 bills when I return are zero or significantly reduced.

But this benefit does not cause me to be biased. I'm still objective about the entire CO2 debacle.  ;)
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 04:16:37 am by Ray »
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Schewe

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2017, 01:30:19 am »

I'm still objective about the entire CO2 debacle.  ;)

And how do you feel about the impact on the environment with increasing air and water temps?

Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss

Quote
Climate change alone is expected to threaten with extinction approximately one quarter or more of all species on land by the year 2050, surpassing even habitat loss as the biggest threat to life on land. Species in the oceans and in fresh water are also at great risk from climate change, especially those that live in ecosystems like coral reefs that are highly sensitive to warming temperatures, but the full extent of that risk has not yet been calculated.

Agree? Disagree?
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Ray

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2017, 01:50:48 am »

And how do you feel about the impact on the environment with increasing air and water temps?

Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss

Agree? Disagree?

I neither agree nor disagree. What will happen in 50 years time is currently beyond any sound, scientific prediction, at least with regard to the effects of increasing CO2 levels. Other activities of mankind, such as deforestation, urbanisation, pollution, and modern agricultural practices, will obviously affect Biodiversity.

If we want to address such issues, then reducing CO2 might have no effect at all. Animals are different from humans in the sense that they don't have a fixed home which they are attached to. If the climate changes they move to a more suitable climate. If fish in the sea don't like the pH levels, they swim to other locations where the pH is different. The pH of the oceans varies considerably, according to location, depth and season of the year.

Over the past 300 million years the average pH of the ocean surface has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1. Big deal!  ;D
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LesPalenik

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2017, 03:21:29 am »

Animal tales from icy wonderlands by Paul Nicklen - a different take on ice disappearence, including some awesome pictures

https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_nicklen_tales_of_ice_bound_wonderlands
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Ray

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2017, 05:31:44 am »

Animal tales from icy wonderlands by Paul Nicklen - a different take on ice disappearence, including some awesome pictures

https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_nicklen_tales_of_ice_bound_wonderlands

Lovely photos and an amusing narrative. I notice that Paul didn't get into the CO2 issue, but just made the point that the ice is melting, which was affecting the wildlife to some extent, as one would expect.

Sometimes when the ice doesn't melt, it can have a disastrous effect on humans, as was the case during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age about 900 years ago.

The Vikings had to leave their homeland in Greenland because they could no longer grow crops and raise cattle, and further east the snows in the Himalayas did not melt in summer as they usually did, reducing the flow of water down the Mekong river, and effectively destroying the Khmer empire at Angkor Wat in Cambodia, with a bit of help from the Thais who invaded the collapsing empire.

The hoax about climate change is not that it is not happening, but that we can prevent it by simply reducing CO2 levels. What hubris!  :(
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Hans Kruse

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2017, 06:01:41 am »

Where is the scientific part in your post? It's kind of funny you use the word scientific to debunk what almost all scientist agree on.

Mostly the debate will be surpassed in a few decades since old fashioned fossil fuels will be dead due to competition from renewable energy. That is a hypothesis, of course :) But it is pretty certain that this will happen although there will be a fairly long tail of fossil burning before it disappears entirely.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 06:57:36 am by Hans Kruse »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2017, 06:33:46 am »

Where is the scientific part in your post? It's kind of funny you use the word scientific to debunk what almost all scientist agree on.

Well, Ray did say:
Quote
If one is scientifically illiterate, as most politiciams are and most members of the public are, it's understandable that most people will simply accept the media reports that there is a 97% consensus among climatologists that CO2 increases could cause catastrophic changes in climate.

Such people are not able to understand or appreciate the validity of alternative views.

So he might side with the 3%, or simply likes to stir up a discussion.

Cheers,
Bart
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

laughingbear

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2017, 06:36:29 am »

The hoax about climate change is not that it is not happening, but that we can prevent it by simply reducing CO2 levels. What hubris!  :(

Well, then the thread title is misleading, don't you think?

Depending on how old you are, you might be witnessing the by far heaviest impact driven by climate change, in the marine ecosystems, which ultimately will cause global socio-economic systems to collapse due to several cumulative factors that extend the stress limitations of habitats, and cause multiple extinction events already, CO2 being one of the more important in that context. Biodiversity is the crux here.

Quote
The potential consequences of the loss of a species are impressively illustrated by the classic example of the sea otters native to kelp forests. Sea otters feed, in part, on sea urchins, which eat kelp. Because in the past sea otters were extensively hunted in some areas, sea urchin populations burgeoned, leading to the widespread destruction of kelp forests. Consequently not only were habitats changed, but even the near-coastal currents were altered in some areas.

Now, multiple habitats that no longer can perform ecosystem functions will cause hazardous results.

Give or take by 2050 their will be no more doubts left, and those in denial silenced.

Last but not least, fwiw, religious views of any sorts have no place in such discussion whatsoever.

Best
G
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Chairman Bill

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2017, 06:46:37 am »

What do these so-called expert scientists know? A mate down the pub told me that it's all a hoax, and apparently most oil company chief execs agree with him. I think that pretty much settles it.

laughingbear

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2017, 06:48:55 am »

What do these so-called expert scientists know? A mate down the pub told me that it's all a hoax, and apparently most oil company chief execs agree with him. I think that pretty much settles it.

LOL

Speaking at length with fishermen that spent their lives on the ocean I found a valuable source, let aside marine scientists that research in that field.
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Hans Kruse

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2017, 06:58:29 am »

Well, Ray did say:
So he might side with the 3%, or simply likes to stir up a discussion.

Cheers,
Bart

I understood Ray to side with the 3% and I'm actually not sure why he has started this thread ;)

laughingbear

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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2017, 07:13:32 am »

I understood Ray to side with the 3% and I'm actually not sure why he has started this thread ;)
I think he is trying to troll me into further demolishing his position as I did on the Trump thread.  I'm not going to bite this time other than to note that he has totally misread the science behind the report.  I'll leave it at that and bid this thread a fond adieu.
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Hans Kruse

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2017, 07:18:59 am »


If one can't set up experiments to falsify a particular theory, and one can't conduct repeated experiments in real time to confirm that the results are consistent with a particular theory, then the theory has to remain a hypothesis.

That our current warming phase is mostly caused by our CO2 enissions is a hypothesis, not proven.

As Elon Musk says https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKCuDxpccYM "it's the dummest experiment in history".
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 07:38:29 am by Hans Kruse »
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Hans Kruse

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2017, 07:32:05 am »

I think he is trying to troll me into further demolishing his position as I did on the Trump thread.  I'm not going to bite this time other than to note that he has totally misread the science behind the report.  I'll leave it at that and bid this thread a fond adieu.

You may be right :) I didn't follow that thread. But as I wrote earlier, I don't think the carbon emissions will be stopped by arguments about what is correct or not, but my market forces. I think we are right on front of an exponential growth of renewable energy products due to price for energy. What I do fear is the consequence this will have for the countries who live from exporting fossil fuels. Can they make the transition in time before this happens, is the real question. Huge companies will go belly up also. Similar to what has happened in the last 20-30 years in a number of industries. This new transition will hurt entire countries.

Ray

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2017, 07:55:12 am »

Where is the scientific part in your post? It's kind of funny you use the word scientific to debunk what almost all scientist agree on.

Mostly the debate will be surpassed in a few decades since old fashioned fossil fuels will be dead due to competition from renewable energy. That is a hypothesis, of course :) But it is pretty certain that this will happen although there will be a fairly long tail of fossil burning before it disappears entirely.

Hans,
I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are you referring to the scientific evidence for the existence of the MWP, or the LIA, or the droughts and lack of monsoonal rain that destroyed the Khmer civilization? A google search will provide lots of evidence for these events.

Where is your scientific evidence that almost all scientists agree that CO2 is causing global warming? I understand that those scientists whose livelihood is dependent upon writing papers that confirm that CO2 is the predominant cause of our current warming period, and their assistants who work in government funded Climate Research Centres, have an invested interest in exaggerating the certainty, otherwise funding would cease and they would lose their job.

But scientists in general, and particularly Geologist and Meteorologists tend to be more skeptical.
Check out this site:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/#4c7c21a44c7c

If you want scientific evidence for the global effect of the MWP, then check out the following site which provides dozens (even hundreds) of links to research papers confirming that the MWP was a global phenomenom. This fact used to be denied by certain climate scientists who claimed the MWP was a local event confined to North Atlantic region. To quote:


"Recently however, a group of 'climate scientists' and activists have attempted to deny the existence of the MWP, or downplay its magnitude, or claim that it was only local to the North Atlantic region. The motivation for these people is to try to be able to claim that current warming is unprecedented and man-made. To support their false claims they have used flawed statistical techniques to construct the totally discredited 'hockey stick' picture.
There are hundreds of scientific papers that confirm the MWP, and confirm that it was a global phenomenon. Here are a few of these:"


https://sites.google.com/site/globalwarmingquestions/mwp
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2017, 08:14:17 am »

As a geologist, I have a few comments:

1. In the geological record, there is evidence of cyclicity in temperature.
2. There is an association between these cycles and, say, important volcanic periods and events.
3. For the last 150 years or so, we can measure and get temperature data that is a lot more reliable than when we want to investigate what happened, say, 200 million, or 50 million years ago.
4. There is no doubt that the temperature is rising, what is uncertain is whether this is part of a normal cycle, or whether this rising trend will surpass previous cycles in terms of temperature.
5. Also not certain is the role and impact of Man in this rising trend.
6. From what we know, too much CO2 is not good for the nearly-closed system that Earth is. Sometimes, even small changes can have a big impact; the Earth is a sensitive system.

In the end, it is better to be proactive and do something today, than wait for more 500 or 1000 years of data.

Hans Kruse

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2017, 08:17:12 am »

Hans,
I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are you referring to the scientific evidence for the existence of the MWP, or the LIA, or the droughts and lack of monsoonal rain that destroyed the Khmer civilization? A google search will provide lots of evidence for these events.

Where is your scientific evidence that almost all scientists agree that CO2 is causing global warming? I understand that those scientists whose livelihood is dependent upon writing papers that confirm that CO2 is the predominant cause of our current warming period, and their assistants who work in government funded Climate Research Centres, have an invested interest in exaggerating the certainty, otherwise funding would cease and they would lose their job.

But scientists in general, and particularly Geologist and Meteorologists tend to be more skeptical.
Check out this site:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/#4c7c21a44c7c

If you want scientific evidence for the global effect of the MWP, then check out the following site which provides dozens (even hundreds) of links to research papers confirming that the MWP was a global phenomenom. This fact used to be denied by certain climate scientists who claimed the MWP was a local event confined to North Atlantic region. To quote:


"Recently however, a group of 'climate scientists' and activists have attempted to deny the existence of the MWP, or downplay its magnitude, or claim that it was only local to the North Atlantic region. The motivation for these people is to try to be able to claim that current warming is unprecedented and man-made. To support their false claims they have used flawed statistical techniques to construct the totally discredited 'hockey stick' picture.
There are hundreds of scientific papers that confirm the MWP, and confirm that it was a global phenomenon. Here are a few of these:"


https://sites.google.com/site/globalwarmingquestions/mwp

Ray, my view is basically that the best route is to avoid the issues of fossil fuel burning and this will happen anyway sooner than most would think. Of course this can be debated endlessly at this point and only in 20-30 years can be sure about what actually happened. At that time we can also look back (if we are alive :) ) on all the countries and companies left behind because they didn't see in time what was happening.

Ray

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2017, 08:47:36 am »

Ray, my view is basically that the best route is to avoid the issues of fossil fuel burning and this will happen anyway sooner than most would think. Of course this can be debated endlessly at this point and only in 20-30 years can be sure about what actually happened. At that time we can also look back (if we are alive :) ) on all the countries and companies left behind because they didn't see in time what was happening.

Whereas my view is basically that we should clean up our environment, impose strict controls on the real noxious emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which we know with certainty have a health consequence, develop electric cars and photovoltaic panels in conjunction with ultra-supercritical coal fired power plants so that we have plenty of low cost energy to build projects and reorganize our suburban structures so we can protect ourselves from the effects of extreme weather events.

Wouldn't it be a disaster if we discovered in 40 years time that our current warming was mostly natural and the trillions of dollars spent on reducing CO2 emissions could have saved many lives if it had been spent on the development of houses resistant to cyclones and floods.
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dreed

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Re: The Climate Change Hoax
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2017, 08:59:09 am »

Whereas my view is basically that we should clean up our environment, impose strict controls on the real noxious emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which we know with certainty have a health consequence
...

Therefore you agree with many planks of the environmental platform.

Quote
Wouldn't it be a disaster if we discovered in 40 years time that our current warming was mostly natural and the trillions of dollars spent on reducing CO2 emissions could have saved many lives if it had been spent on the development of houses resistant to cyclones and floods.

Lets give your priorities some numbers and let me point you at NOAA's page for this:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml
All things considered, that's not very many lives lost.

The housing industry is a thriving industry so I'm quite confident that private industry is perfectly capable of coming up with a solution to weather resilient housing to match the wallet of those doing the buying.
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