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Author Topic: Trump II  (Read 917019 times)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1620 on: March 20, 2017, 10:47:00 am »

The problem is policy makers are pushing the climate change agenda.  They are not attempting to be fair and balanced  and show both sides.  So they continue to push research and present data that mainly "proves" one side.  That's not science.  That's politics.  Additionally, most of the politics of it does not take into consideration the workers in the carbon fuel industry who lost or will lose their jobs due to changes in government regulations or because of the policies of environmentalists.    Trump saw the opening and appealed to these people in the swing states and won the election because of it.  Hillary never gave them hope.  Instead, she spit on them.  Elections have consequences.
The report that Ray posted the link to was quite balanced and Bart already addressed the parts that I did not.  Coal mining is not going to return in big numbers employment wise.  Surface mining requires far fewer workers that underground mining.  Power plants are switching to natural gas which is far cheaper than coal.  A large amount of our coal is exported these days.  It's interesting that they are now doing away with the safety monitoring at underground coal mines at both the federal and state level and going to rely on "education" to make the mines safe.  We well know how that will turn out.
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Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1621 on: March 20, 2017, 11:10:47 am »

Thanks for posting the link.  It's interesting that on page 51 they state "Assessment of many studies covering a wide range of regions
and crops shows that negative impacts of climate change on crop  yields  have  been  more  common  than  positive  impacts  (high confidence)."

Perhaps the increase in CO2 is not as beneficial as one would predict given increased biomass production.  There's no such thing as a free lunch.

Alan,
The statement on page 51 does not mention CO2 or its fertilization effect. The negative impacts could be due to natural fluctuations in climate, exacerbated by wars, conflicts, government incompetence, lack of proper storage facilities, and so on. The details are not mentioned.

However, I've had a look at the full Working Group I Assessment Report, which is 1535 pages long, so I won't link it here.

On page 502 there is a reference to the Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation Effect. Following is the extract.

"Box 6.3 | The Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation Effect

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations lead to higher leaf photosynthesis and reduced canopy transpiration, which in turn lead to increased plant water use efficiency and reduced fluxes of surface latent heat. The increase in leaf photosynthesis with rising CO2, the so-called CO2 fertilisation effect, plays a dominant role in terrestrial biogeochemical models to explain the global land carbon sink (Sitch et al., 2008), yet it is one of most unconstrained process in those models.

Field experiments provide a direct evidence of increased photosynthesis rates and water use efficiency (plant carbon gains per unit of water loss from transpiration) in plants growing under elevated CO2. These physiological changes translate into a broad range of higher plant carbon accumulation in more than two-thirds of the experiments and with increased net primary productivity (NPP) of about 20 to 25% at double CO2 from pre-industrial concentrations (Ainsworth and Long, 2004; Luo et al., 2004, 2006; Nowak et al., 2004; Norby et al., 2005;Canadell et al., 2007a; Denman et al., 2007; Ainsworth et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2012a).

Since the AR4, new evidence is available from long-term Free-air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments in temperate ecosystems showing the capacity of ecosystems exposed to elevated CO2 to sustain higher rates of carbon accumulation over multiple years (Liberloo et al., 2009; McCarthy et al., 2010; Aranjuelo et al., 2011; Dawes et al., 2011; Lee et al., 2011; Zak et al., 2011). However, FACE experiments also show the diminishing or lack of CO2 fertilisation effect in some ecosystems and for some plant species (Dukes et al., 2005; Adair et al., 2009; Bader et al., 2009; Norby et al., 2010; Newingham et al., 2013). This lack of response occurs despite increased water use efficiency, also confirmed with tree ring evidence (Gedalof and Berg, 2010; PeƱuelas et al., 2011).

Nutrient limitation is hypothesized as primary cause for reduced or lack of CO2 fertilisation effect observed on NPP in some experiments (Luo et al., 2004; Dukes et al., 2005; Finzi et al., 2007; Norby et al., 2010). Nitrogen and phosphorus are very likely to play the most important role in this limitation of the CO2 fertilisation effect on NPP, with nitrogen limitation prevalent in temperate and boreal ecosystems, and phosphorus limitation in the tropics (Luo et al., 2004; Vitousek et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2010a; Goll et al., 2012).

Micronutrients interact in diverse ways with other nutrients in constraining NPP such as molybdenum and phosphorus in the tropics (Wurzburger et al., 2012). Thus, with high confidence, the CO2 fertilisation effect will lead to enhanced NPP, but significant uncertainties remain on the magnitude of this effect, given the lack of experiments outside of temperate climates."


These results tend to be in agreement with most of the studies that I've read on the CO2 fertilization effect, except that some of the studies I've read claim that the increase in growth of certain C3 crops is as high as 41% for a doubling of CO2, and around 30% on average. So the IPCC is perhaps understating the value of increased CO2 levels at 20-25%, as I would expect. In fact, in one report involving water stressed plants it was found that a doubling of CO2 increased the growth of certain plants by as much as 60%.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1622 on: March 20, 2017, 11:27:12 am »

FBI head Comey says no evidence of Trump wiretapping claim:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-idUSKBN16R077

"And we have looked carefully inside the FBI. The Department of Justice has asked me to share with you that the answer is the same for the Department of Justice and all its components: the department has no information that supports those tweets," he said.

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1623 on: March 20, 2017, 11:52:47 am »

The report that Ray posted the link to was quite balanced and Bart already addressed the parts that I did not.  Coal mining is not going to return in big numbers employment wise.  Surface mining requires far fewer workers that underground mining.  Power plants are switching to natural gas which is far cheaper than coal.  A large amount of our coal is exported these days.  It's interesting that they are now doing away with the safety monitoring at underground coal mines at both the federal and state level and going to rely on "education" to make the mines safe.  We well know how that will turn out.
The average person doesn't read these reports and wouldn't understand them if he did.  What they depend on is popular media.  Since they're bias toward implementing changes and keep pushing one side of the issue, most people are only hearing a distorted viewpoint.  Even Congressmen can't understand these science reports and depend on accurate reporting to institute policies.

My comments on the workers were to explain Trump's win.    But even there, climatologists pushing an agenda should include how recommended policies will influence jobs and the economy.  It's not only about how high the water's going to get.

DeanChriss

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1624 on: March 20, 2017, 11:54:54 am »

For example, while the nature programs are nice, they are always tinged with "man bad" "Nature good".

Are you saying that a documentary about bears in Alberta that mentions the negative impact of nearby oil field development on the bears has a liberal bias? Should this program about bears instead talk about the jobs boom and benefits of cheap gasoline? Are you suggesting that a program on Midway Island that shows lots of bird carcasses full of plastic bits should talk about the great jobs created by the plastics industry rather than the detrimental effect of the plastic on birds inhabiting Midway Island?

When I was a kid the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland used to actually catch fire due to all of the flammable crap being dumped into it by industry, and Lake Erie was said by locals to be "dead". The outrage of people caused by the burning river is one many reasons EPA was created. Those "burdensome regulations" cleaned up the river and brought aquatic life back to Lake Erie, which was previously declared "dead". Even back then industry said the regulations would be their doom, but somehow they survived and the most major polluter on the Cuyahoga River is still the among the largest paint manufactures on earth. Today people are still advised to eat no more than one meal per week of any sport fish due to the lingering mercury contamination, but at least there are some fish to catch. Even so, sport fishing has created around 2000 jobs and contributes tens of millions of dollars to the local economy. All of that was a positive contribution to nature by people.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1625 on: March 20, 2017, 11:57:55 am »

For example, changing to non-carbon fuel will negatively effect workers in that industry.  But they should also mention how many new jobs are anticipated in solar or how rising water will increase construction jobs along the ocean as homes are raised on stilts.  Climate change effects more than the environment.  It will effect the economy and other things.  What will be the costs?  Everything should be discussed so we can know where we are going.  We can't only cry about the polar bear. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1626 on: March 20, 2017, 12:00:31 pm »

FBI head Comey says no evidence of Trump wiretapping claim:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-idUSKBN16R077

"And we have looked carefully inside the FBI. The Department of Justice has asked me to share with you that the answer is the same for the Department of Justice and all its components: the department has no information that supports those tweets," he said.

Cheers,
Bart
What did he say about Trump colluding with the Russians?  I haven't been watching.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1627 on: March 20, 2017, 12:04:50 pm »

What did he say about Trump colluding with the Russians?  I haven't been watching.


I'm not sure whether the hearing has been finalized yet, or that the news agencies are still writing their text.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. In his statement FBI head Comey said:
Quote
As you know our practice is not to confirm the existence of ongoing investigations. Especially those investigations that involve classified matters. But, in unusual circumstances, where it is in the public interest, it may be appropriate to do so, as Justice department policies recognize. This is one of those circumstances. I've been authorized by the Department of Justice to confirm that the FBI, as part of our Counter Intelligence mission, is investigating the Russian government's efforts to interfere in the 2016 Presidential election. And that includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign, and the Russian government, and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia's efforts. As with any counterintelligence investigation, this will also include an assessment of whether any crimes were committed.

Because it is an open ongoing investigation and is classified, I cannot say more about what we're doing and who's conduct we're examining.
At the request of Congressional leaders, we have taken the extraordinary step, in coordination with the Department of Justice, of briefing this Congress' leaders including the leaders of this committee, in a classified setting, in detail about the investigation, but I cannot go into those details here.
   
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 12:50:41 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1628 on: March 20, 2017, 12:05:46 pm »

Are you saying that a documentary about bears in Alberta that mentions the negative impact of nearby oil field development on the bears has a liberal bias? Should this program about bears instead talk about the jobs boom and benefits of cheap gasoline? Are you suggesting that a program on Midway Island that shows lots of bird carcasses full of plastic bits should talk about the great jobs created by the plastics industry rather than the detrimental effect of the plastic on birds inhabiting Midway Island?

...
Yes.  Both sides should be explained so you can assess the issue honestly.  How would you like it if PBS only had documentaries that showed how the gasoline companies provided great wealth to our country and created less dependence on foreign oil and never mentioned that they were killing bears and polluting along the way?  Wouldn't that upset you that only one side is presented? 

That's what makes something biased.  Only one side is shown.

Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1629 on: March 20, 2017, 12:27:46 pm »

Not really, because it becomes increasingly more obvious that you've misinterpreted what the terms actually mean. Either that, or you are deliberately misstating the warnings of the report by cherry-picking of what you think supports your claims. But for now I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume the first.

Bart,
Of course I was cherry picking from that rather long report. I was demonstrating to Jeff Schewe and others that the latest IPCC report really did express a low confidence in an increase in the frequency and severity of certain extreme weather events.

Do you think I have the time to discuss every point and detail that's in the report. It would be a long book.  ;) I should also add that 'cherry picking' is what the AGW alarmist do when they make a case about the bad effects of global warming, mentioning only the negative aspects in order to create the maximum alarm. Whereas I provided a link to the whole report from which I selected the specific points I was addressing. A slight difference wouldn't you say.

Quote
Low confidence may mean that the amount of data was limited or prediction models were inaccurate.

Of course it does. That's my interpretation of low confidence. What other interpretation could there be? Low confidence does not mean low risk. It means an unknown or uncertain risk. If one was certain a risk was low, one would claim a high confidence that the risk was low.

One of the major problems with climatology is the unavailability of accurate records from the past with which to compare the more accurate measurements of the present.
The problem I see with the believers in CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) is that they don't seem to even know the difference between skepticism and denialism.
Skepticism is a fundamental requirement for all scientific enquiry. If a theory doesn't lend itself to the rigorous processes of the scientific methodology, such as allowing a process of falsification or the achievement of consistent results with repeated experiments under controlled conditions, then a degree of skepticism must follow, unless you are wearing the religious hat.

The long time spans involved in climate trends, the inaccuracy or lack of past measurements, the tremendous complexity of interacting factors which can influence climate, with positive and negative feedbacks, all have the effect of reducing certainty.

« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 12:41:15 pm by Ray »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1630 on: March 20, 2017, 12:47:48 pm »

One of the major problems with climatology is the unavailability of accurate records from the past with which to compare the more accurate measurements of the present.

It can simply be the lower frequency of past observations versus higher frequency now, that results in a lower confidence qualifier. Nothing to do with lower accuracy. There often is enough data to see the trend. It may also be more difficult to predict the future based on such data, but the data itself is a given.

Another complicating factor is that past anthropogenic effects are included in the current natural phenomenon.

The main problem with the deniers is that once they can no longer deny the facts, it's often too late to reverse the trend, simply because it can take a while for the effects to become measurable while the trend is developing (one can only analyze a given period after it has finished).

Do remember that Trump said that Global warming/Climate change is a hoax.
Well, it is not, it's a documented fact.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 01:10:33 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1631 on: March 20, 2017, 01:08:25 pm »

... Do remember that Trump said that Global warming/Climate change is a hoax....

Jesus, people, that was a joke. You keep taking things literally, failing to account for the inherent wry sense of humor.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1632 on: March 20, 2017, 01:15:25 pm »

Jesus, people, that was a joke.

Really? Where is the Smiley:
"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/265895292191248385

Cheers,
Bart
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1633 on: March 20, 2017, 01:17:15 pm »

Really? Where is the Smiley:

Smilies are for the stupid. Smart people just get it.

Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1634 on: March 20, 2017, 01:23:59 pm »

It can simply be the lower frequency of past observations versus higher frequency now, that results in a lower confidence qualifier. Nothing to do with lower accuracy. There often is enough data to see the trend. It may also be more difficult to predict the future based on such data, but the data itself is a given.

Another complicating factor is that past anthropogenic effects are included in the current natural phenomenon.

The main problem with the deniers is that once they can no longer deny the facts, it's often too late to reverse the trend, simply because it can take a while for the effects to become measurable while the trend is developing (one can only analyze a given period after it has finished).

Do remember that Trump said that Global warming/Climate change is a hoax.
Well, it is not, it's a documented fact.

Cheers,
Bart

Seeing the trend is one thing. Attributing such a trend to the effects of rising CO2 levels is the main difficulty.
No sensible person denies that climate is changing, although some climatologists in the past have tried to obscure the existence of the Medieval Warm Period because they thought (and rightly so) that the existence of other similar warm periods in the past could lead people to think that the current warming period might be part of a natural cycle. I presume you've heard of the Hockey Stick graph.

Most politicians do not seem to have much understanding of science. Didn't Obama make the foolish statement, 'The science is settled'. Trump is using exaggerated language to appeal to his supporters who can identify with his style.
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Otto Phocus

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1635 on: March 20, 2017, 01:24:06 pm »

I know a few people at work like that.

When they say something stupid and are called out for it, they always respond "It was a joke" like that explains anything.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1636 on: March 20, 2017, 02:17:20 pm »

Alan,
The statement on page 51 does not mention CO2 or its fertilization effect. The negative impacts could be due to natural fluctuations in climate, exacerbated by wars, conflicts, government incompetence, lack of proper storage facilities, and so on. The details are not mentioned.

However, I've had a look at the full Working Group I Assessment Report, which is 1535 pages long, so I won't link it here.
Ray, I think you are missing the forest for the trees to use an appropriate idiom.  Let me try to be clearer about the key issue.  It really has nothing to do with biomass increase except for certain crops such as grasses and perhaps trees grown for lumber where biomass is important.  For row crops biomass may not be a good thing as we want those crops to orient production to seeds which means they need to focus energy on reproduction (which is what seeds are used for by the plants).  If biomass production is reducing seed production that is not a good thing.  Additionally, crops such as wheat and corn are carefully bred so that they have standability in adverse weather.  If the crop is beaten down by heavy rain or hail then yields are reduced.   If my rows of corn are producing lots of biomass but the stalks are too high and somewhat weak that is not a good thing. It's a tricky balance for the plant breeder to optimize growth towards seed production.  It may be that enhanced concentrations of CO2 can augment seed production in a way that plant breeders can take advantage of but my reading of the literature is that this is not necessarily a given.

I highly doubt that the authors of the report are getting data from conflict zones as you allude to so I don't think that is an issue at all.  The focus is on plant growth.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1637 on: March 20, 2017, 02:21:22 pm »

It can simply be the lower frequency of past observations versus higher frequency now, that results in a lower confidence qualifier. Nothing to do with lower accuracy. There often is enough data to see the trend. It may also be more difficult to predict the future based on such data, but the data itself is a given.
I believe Washington DC has temperature and precipitation records that go back to the late 19th century.  IIRC 4-5 of the last 10 years have been the warmest on record here.

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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1638 on: March 20, 2017, 02:22:21 pm »

Smilies are for the stupid. Smart people just get it.
Yes, just like the non-existent "air quotes."
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1639 on: March 20, 2017, 02:23:31 pm »

I know a few people at work like that.

When they say something stupid and are called out for it, they always respond "It was a joke" like that explains anything.
...I knew some of these types as well and they looked increasingly foolish as time went on.
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