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Author Topic: Trump II  (Read 915321 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #920 on: February 27, 2017, 06:48:46 am »

... life is about winning and losing...

Yep ... and he won.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #921 on: February 27, 2017, 07:06:51 am »

The culture war rages on.

Better hurry and get some pictures of the Rockies, they'll be covered in advertising billboards soon. :)
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Otto Phocus

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #922 on: February 27, 2017, 07:56:12 am »

Trump seems to be acting like a bully.

He has no problem dishing it out, but when the press says something bad about him, all of a sudden he is triggered and needs a safe space.

Being president is not like being the CEO of a family owned business where people pretend to like you. Politics ain't like that.

He has a lot to learn and not a lot of time to do it.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #923 on: February 27, 2017, 08:47:19 am »

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-majority-think-news-media-has-been-too-critical-of-trump/


Quote
...Over half, 53 percent, also said they think that the “news media and other elites” are exaggerating problems by the Trump administration because they feel uncomfortable and threatened by the changes Mr. Trump represents. By contrast, 45 percent said they disagreed with that assessment...

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #924 on: February 27, 2017, 09:26:34 am »

Alan, here I disagree with you. All press is biased, left, right, mainstream etc. You have to read/listen to both sides and then think for yourself. Shutting out one side is the first step of becoming brainwashed. Are you sure that's not what happened to you?

I guess I didn't make my point clear.  My point was that you shouldn't listen to the part of the press that claims Trump is shutting down news, that he's silencing the media. That's not happening.    Sure he's railing against the press as is his right of freedom of speech.   But look around.  We're up to page 48.  And this is Trump II. 

Today, more than ever before, you can listen to all sides, as I do listening to the CNN's and MSNBC's as well as Fox's as well as photo forums.  He's not taking away free press.  I think more people are involved more in political discussions than ever before. I can't get together with a group of people where "fights" don't break out.  People are energized on all sides and that's good for democracy.  Although, it's starting to get "old".  I feel like I'm going to burn out on this stuff.  There are more important things in life.

pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #925 on: February 27, 2017, 09:43:02 am »

There are more important things in life.
Alan, there's a thing we can wholeheartedly agree on. I took some nice shots today, despite the ugly weather here. Very rewarding 8)
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #926 on: February 27, 2017, 09:57:17 am »

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-majority-think-news-media-has-been-too-critical-of-trump/
Thanks, interesting read, allthough I'm a bit surprized about the small sample size (only 1000 people). Would be interesting if they had also asked the reverse question, how many people think Trump is too hard on the media and find his statement about the "enemy of the people" too exaggerated.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #927 on: February 27, 2017, 10:16:55 am »

Alan, there's a thing we can wholeheartedly agree on. I took some nice shots today, despite the ugly weather here. Very rewarding 8)

Well I'm glad you did that.  I have to get out sometime soon and take some pictures.  Today I have to go to the doctor with my wife.  So we leave politics behind and handle the regular, important things in life.  All these posts and I changed no one's mind.  Did any of us?  What a waste of time.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #928 on: February 27, 2017, 10:36:02 am »

... I'm a bit surprized about the small sample size (only 1000 people)...

If my memory serves me well from my statistics classes, it only takes about 1000 well-selected samples to reasonably well represent the statistical pool. Going over wouldn't significantly alter the results (sort of a parallel with hifi music or digital back/large format photography - it costs exponentially more to obtain a smaller and smaller increase in quality).
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 10:55:35 am by Slobodan Blagojevic »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #929 on: February 27, 2017, 10:43:01 am »

... All these posts and I changed no one's mind.  Did any of us?  What a waste of time.

It is not always about changing minds. It is more about expanding horizons.

Even if within the same frame of mind, expanding one's understanding with nuances, different angles, and, yes, alternative facts, and alternative opinions, is not necessarily a waste of time. Even if just better understanding the other side's arguments, without necessarily agreeing with them, is not a waste of time.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #930 on: February 27, 2017, 10:47:28 am »

If my memory serves me well from my statistics classes, it only take about 1000 well-selected samples to reasonably well represent the statistical pool. Going over wouldn't significantly alter the results (sort of a parallel with hifi music or digital back/large format photography - it costs exponentially more to obtain a smaller and smaller increase in quality).
Correct for this type of survey which is designed to give a general perception of what is going on.  In the area of drug safety (my area of expertise), it is way to small to measure important adverse events.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #931 on: February 27, 2017, 11:06:12 am »

Correct for this type of survey which is designed to give a general perception of what is going on.  In the area of drug safety (my area of expertise), it is way to small to measure important adverse events.

Actually the threshold is variable depending on the study and coverage.  With a survey such as this, the number is not as important as making sure the sample space was stratified.  Meaning if 30% of the overall population identify as conservative, 30% of the sample space need to identify as conservative; if 15% of the population is black, then 15% of the sample space must be black; etc. 

Collecting a sample space such as this is usually more difficult and time consuming since you need to collect more then what you need.  Then put in place an effective but random system of eliminating participants until you reach a stratified state. 

I did not look at the study, so I have no idea if this was applied here. 

Another great statistical tip, there are three types of averages, the mean, medium and mode.  Unless you know which one is being referenced, knowing the average does not tell you much.  Also, knowing the mean does not give much either unless you also know the standard deviation, assuming the distribution simulates a standard bell. 
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 11:12:41 am by JoeKitchen »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #932 on: February 27, 2017, 11:06:29 am »

... In the area of drug safety (my area of expertise), it is way to small to measure important adverse events.

Speaking about health issues, this election indeed produced adverse effects for at least half the population: shock, derangement, anger, anxiety, uncontrollable sobbing, clinical depression, etc. I think the next elections should come with a Surgeon General warning  ;) ;D

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #933 on: February 27, 2017, 11:18:35 am »

Speaking of averages reminds me of the joke about the non swimmer  who drowned in a lake that had an average depth of 2 feet. His luck was he stepped into the only spot that was 15 feet deep.

Otto Phocus

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #934 on: February 27, 2017, 11:43:31 am »

Despite all the money we put into education, almost half of the students continue to be below average.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #935 on: February 27, 2017, 01:41:55 pm »

Speaking about health issues, this election indeed produced adverse effects for at least half the population: shock, derangement, anger, anxiety, uncontrollable sobbing, clinical depression, etc. I think the next elections should come with a Surgeon General warning  ;) ;D
Another point you and I both agree on!!!
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scyth

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #936 on: February 27, 2017, 02:35:05 pm »

well-selected samples

how do u do well selection nowadays ? do they still poll land lines and not from DNC list ?
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #937 on: February 27, 2017, 03:08:33 pm »

how do u do well selection nowadays ? do they still poll land lines and not from DNC list ?

Polling through the phone has always been a bad way to do any polling, past or present.  If you don't pay the participants, and give them an easy way to end the survey (hanging up), you will end up with some degree of participation bias.  Only those with strong interests will participate, skewing your results. 

On top of that, it is very difficult for someone to non-biasly read the questions (think tempo, pitch and tone of the voice, etc.)  Then throw in the fact that it is widely known conservatives dislike polling more then liberals and you are pretty much guaranteed a false result for anything political. 

It always amazes me how much credence is put into phone polling. 
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #938 on: February 27, 2017, 03:08:39 pm »

how do u do well selection nowadays ?...

Always a good question.

Given that the survey was done by the Wall Street Journal/NBC News, both of which are (still) supposed to be respectable and professional news organizations, one can only assume/hope they know how to make a selection without a (deliberate) bias.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #939 on: February 27, 2017, 04:00:46 pm »

... Would be interesting if they had also asked the reverse question, how many people think Trump is too hard on the media and find his statement about the "enemy of the people" too exaggerated.

Here is another challenge to the results of the poll:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/02/27/among-otherwise-mediocre-poll-results-a-big-gift-to-president-trump/?utm_term=.efd5c6a3a93c

The major objection (to the section I quoted earlier - bold mine):

Quote
Except you’ll note that the question isn’t actually about the media. It’s about the media “and other elites.”

As it turns out, the question is even more bizarrely lopsided than just that. In full, it asked people whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement: “The news media and other elites are exaggerating the problems with the Trump administration because they are uncomfortable and threatened with the kind of change that Trump represents.”
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