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Schewe

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1600 on: March 19, 2017, 07:39:00 pm »

If PBS went away, the taxpayers would save money.

Yes, cutting any federal funding to the arts would save money. But at what cost to the arts and compared to what?

What does the NEA's $148-million budget buy? 7,789,473 taco bowls but not even one mile of the 405 Freeway

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President Trump has issued his federal budget, and it contains not a penny for the National Endowment for the Arts, the federal arts funding agency that has been the perennial whipping child of the right.

Culture critics, such as The Times’ Christopher Knight, immediately noted that the NEA’s annual budget — which was nearly $148 million in fiscal year 2016 — is minuscule compared to other federal expenditures. Defense, for example, is more than 3,600 times that — almost $583 billion a year. (Perhaps it’s time to ask the Pentagon to economize on toilet paper?)

All of this means that doing away with the NEA isn’t going to save much money, but it will hurt a lot of arts organizations — many of which cater to constituencies that include schoolchildren and military veterans.

Which raises the question: What exactly can one do with $148 million — besides fund thousands of arts programs in communities large and small across the nation? When it comes to big, infrastructure-y photo-op stuff — like expanding a freeway or building a border wall — not all that much. It won’t even get you an entire Picasso at auction.

— 0.004% of the total federal budget for 2015 (Quartz)

— 45 cents per person per year in the U.S., based on current population estimates

— 9.3% of a new Air Force One jet, per estimates issued by the Government Accountability Office
 
— 22.8 miles of pedestrian fencing (not a wall!) along the U.S.-Mexico border, at an estimated cost of $6.5 million per mile, per a 2009 government study

— Number of times you’d have to kill the NEA to build that pedestrian fence (not a wall!) along all 2,000 miles of U.S.-Mexico border: 88

— Less than 1 mile of freeway expansion on the 405 at the Sepulveda Pass, which cost roughly $160 million per mile

— One sixth of the Museum of Modern Art’s 2013 endowment of $870 million

— 1,014 to 1,165 days of security expenses for guarding Melania and Barron Trump at Trump Tower, per estimates released by the New York Police Department

— Number of days of security expenses if the President is at Trump Tower with them: 480

— 41 presidential weekend trips to Mar-a-Lago, at an estimate of $3.6 million per trip


Wow...that will save tax payers MILLIONS!!!

But there's some better ways of saving money for taxpayers...DON'T BUILD THE FRIGGIN WALL. The wall is stupid, will cost billions and not aid at keeping undocumented immigrants out of the US..because most undocumented immigrants come by overstaying their legal visas. A wall won't help with that at all. Reprot: The 2,000 Mile Wall in Search of a Purpose.

Another report this by Center for Economic and Policy Research (http://cepr.net) asks: Paying for Legal Services or Keeping Melania Trump in NYC: Choices for Taxpayers

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We all know about the need to make trade-offs in budgeting, most of us have to do it on a regular basis in our daily lives. But what about the trade-offs for the federal government? Arguably there is no need for trade-offs right now. Both interest rates and inflation are at low levels, so it is not obvious that there is any problem with larger deficits, but folks in both parties are fixated on the need to run low budget deficits or even to have balanced budgets, so these politics dictate the need for trade-offs.

Then look at this chart...



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It is interesting to compare the spending of these programs that face cuts or may be eliminated altogether with spending of security for President Trump and his family. In the past, presidents have generally tried to limit their own travel and that of their families so as not to create large security bills for the country. Apparently, this is not a concern of President Trump.

Unlike past presidents, he has requested Secret Service protection for his adult children. Given their travel habits running President Trump’s business, this is likely to be a considerable expense for the government. For example, the Washington Post reported that one trip to Uruguay by Eric Trump to open a hotel there cost the government almost $100,000 in security expenses. In addition, Trump’s decision to take his weekends at his golf club in Florida, rather the White House or Camp David, costs us more than $3 million a shot. And the decision by Melania Trump to stay in New York with her son is apparently costing taxpayers close to $2 million a day.

So, kill NPR/PBS & NEA/NEH so Melania Trump can stay in New York with her son...

And, do we really need to spend so much more money than the rest of the world on the military? Aren't we already the badasses of the world?

U.S. Military Spending vs. the World

Quote
The U.S. outpaces all other nations in military expenditures. World military spending totaled more than $1.6 trillion in 2015. The U.S. accounted for 37 percent of the total.

U.S. military expenditures are roughly the size of the next seven largest military budgets around the world, combined.



So...can you honestly defend Trump's proposed budget? It seems some GOP congress people do not...

Gillibrand Leads Bipartisan Letter With 24 Senators Urging Trump Administration To Preserve Federal Funding For National Arts & Humanities Programs

From the NEA:
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BUDGET
The National Endowment for the Arts’ FY2016 appropriation of $147.9 million constitutes approximately .004 percent of the federal budget. More than 80 percent of the appropriation is distributed as grants and awards to organizations and individuals across the country.
• 40 percent of the NEA’s grantmaking budget is awarded directly to the states through their state and regional arts agencies, reaching millions more people in thousands of communities. The NEA designates that a portion of every state and regional partnership grant be allocated to serving underserved communities
• The remaining 60 percent are awards made directly to organizations and individuals that apply through the NEA’s funding categories.
• NEA grants provide a significant return on investment of federal dollars with $1 of NEA direct funding leveraging up to $9 in private and other public funds, resulting in $500 million in matching support in 2016.
FUNDING DISTRIBUTION AND IMPACT
We are fully committed to ensuring that all Americans have access and opportunity to engage with the arts.
• In FY 2016, the NEA recommended more than 2,400 grants in nearly 16,000 communities in every Congressional District in the country.
A recent examination of NEA direct grants showed that the majority go to small and medium sized organizations, which tend to support projects that benefit audiences that otherwise might not have access to arts programming.
• Small sized organizations (less than $350,000 in prior year expenditures) received 30 percent of the NEA’s direct grants.
• Medium sized organizations ($350,000 to $1.75 million in prior year expenditures) received about 35 percent.
• Large organizations (over $1.75 million) 35 percent, of our grant awards.
A significant percentage of grants go to those who have fewer opportunities to participate in the arts.
• 40% of NEA-supported activities take place in high-poverty neighborhoods.
• 36% of NEA grants go to organizations that reach underserved populations such as people with disabilities, people in
institutions, and veterans.
• 33% of NEA grants serve low-income audiences.

So, it's really not the coastal elites that are getting the most benefit from the NEA, it's the flyover states, those states Trump won that are gonna be hurt the most. All so Melania can stay in NYC?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1601 on: March 19, 2017, 08:00:45 pm »

Get rid of your subsidies, then we can talk about fair trade.  That's the hidden "tax" that's used to make international trade unfair.
I'm opposed to subsidies and we should end them.  But most products we make aren't subsidized.  This being a photo forum brings to mind complaints posted here from Europeans, Australians, and New Zealanders.  A Nikon from Japan that would sell for let's say $1000 in B and H Photo Store in NYC sells for $1300-$1400 in those other countries.  Posters  plot trips to America where they will buy equipment and secret them back into their country or I guess claim they bought them in their country before they left on their trip. (I'm not familiar with the process.  Maybe someone can fill us in how those other people get around the duties ;)

In any case, how is that fair to Japan?

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1602 on: March 19, 2017, 08:16:36 pm »

Pressure builds on Trump to back off wiretap accusations:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-idUSKBN16Q0LL

Germany rejects Trump's claim it owes NATO and U.S. 'vast sums' for defense:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-germany-defence-idUSKBN16Q0D8

The allies are not amused.

Cheers,
Bart
America's not amused either. Germany and some other European countries are suppose to spend 2% of their budget on defense but are spending a lot less.  I believe Germany pays 1.2% with promises to get it to 2% by 2024.  If they spent 2%, their defense budget would be larger than Russia's.  German's would feel proud of knowing they can defend themselves, or at least they should if they haven't forgotten how to fight. 

Our new President feels 2024 is too slow and won't accept it.       Germany is the richest country in Europe and 4th in the world. Let's look at it this way.  If you were a landlord and rent was 500 Euros and I was paying you only 300, you would not wait until 2024 until I started to pay the full amount. You'd evict me.  Especially when you learned I was really rich.   Trump doesn't care about previous assumptions and non-binding agreements.  America expects European countries to pay more.  To prove he's serious, my guess he'll move a division from Germany to Poland who is paying their fair share  Frankly, rotating the division back to America might be a better idea.  We should at least reduce our forces there.   NATO countries are going to get the point and everyone is suddenly going to start meeting their promises.

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1603 on: March 19, 2017, 08:39:25 pm »

Jeff,   NEA/PBS is decidedly Democrat and Liberal in much of their presentations.  They are not balanced.  They take political sides.  So Republicans and Conservatives are opposed to funding them regardless of the relatively small cost. They are also symbolic of government involvement and control in too many of our affairs in all areas of living.  We want government out of our lives as much as possible. 

Schewe

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1604 on: March 19, 2017, 09:55:47 pm »

NEA/PBS is decidedly Democrat and Liberal in much of their presentations.  They are not balanced.

Hum...where do you get that information? Do you listen to PBS? What programs are "decidedly Democrat and Liberal"? Austen City Limits, Masterpiece Theatre, Antiques Roadshow, Frontline, Nature, Nova, Great Performances, Sound Stage, Washington Week, America Revealed, Ken Burns America, PBS News Hour, Independent Lens?

Do you actually know that PBS is liberal from your personal experience or are you simply parroting the right wing mantra?

Heck even Media  Bias/Fact Check web site lists the PBS News Hour as "slight liberal bias" but with a Factual Reporting of HIGH.

see, I'm pretty sure you aren't a frequent viewer of much of anything on PBS and don't personally know how biased PBS might be. And claiming that the NEA is "decidedly Democrat and Liberal" is simply silly. Conservatives aren't artists...and they arum all artists are liberal left wingers...

Sorry, your claim is particularly unconvincing...
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Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1605 on: March 19, 2017, 10:39:24 pm »

I just received the following email from a friend. Is this fake news? Has it already been discussed in this thread?

"Supreme court, here we come.....

"First Muslim Woman Judge Carolyn Walker, hand-picked by President Obama, sworn in as judge of the 7th Municipal District, Brooklyn by holding the Holy Quran at Brooklyn Borough hall on December 10, 2015, it was an Historic Day!!

Since the Quran forbids all law but Sharia Law, it would seem she will head the first Federally sanctioned Sharia Court. Kind of makes you proud, doesn't it?
Very little media coverage on this ...... Another chink in the armour, no one cares, until it's too late!

Step by step by step....this is how our culture will end.
Obama supporters, your "Destroying America" dream is coming true......."
 



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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1606 on: March 19, 2017, 11:10:44 pm »

Hum...where do you get that information? Do you listen to PBS? What programs are "decidedly Democrat and Liberal"? Austen City Limits, Masterpiece Theatre, Antiques Roadshow, Frontline, Nature, Nova, Great Performances, Sound Stage, Washington Week, America Revealed, Ken Burns America, PBS News Hour, Independent Lens?

Do you actually know that PBS is liberal from your personal experience or are you simply parroting the right wing mantra?

Heck even Media  Bias/Fact Check web site lists the PBS News Hour as "slight liberal bias" but with a Factual Reporting of HIGH.

see, I'm pretty sure you aren't a frequent viewer of much of anything on PBS and don't personally know how biased PBS might be. And claiming that the NEA is "decidedly Democrat and Liberal" is simply silly. Conservatives aren't artists...and they arum all artists are liberal left wingers...

Sorry, your claim is particularly unconvincing...
Every time a conservative or Republican says something, you and the left immediately call them stupid, prejudiced, uninformed.  I must get all my info from Fox.  I guess I'm just one of the deplorables.  It's very insulting.  It's one of the reasons Trump won.

I've been watching PBS for decades and enjoy a lot of their programming.  However, their editorializing is to the left.  For example, while the nature programs are nice, they are always tinged with "man bad" "Nature good".  Business people are always greedy and are out to hurt the environment.  Their political agenda is for big government.  What's really strange is that you accuse me of providing an unconvincing claim as to their liberal bias.  Then, you state in your own post and you provide a link that shows a chart indicating their "left center bias".  You prove my claim.

They should be in the middle, in the 'least biased" part of the chart.  It's being supported by public funds and should show no bias.  Therefore Trump wants to cut the funding and I agree.  The government should not take sides in a political debate.



Schewe

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1607 on: March 20, 2017, 12:17:00 am »

I must get all my info from Fox.  I guess I'm just one of the deplorables.  It's very insulting.

And yet the numbers tell the story...





And then there's this...





So, yeah, statistically, you are more likely to get the majority of your news from few sources and distrust most news sources. And yes, this is from the http://www.pewresearch.org but I'm pretty sure they aren't a left wing conspiracy group, right?

Quote
About Pew Research Center
Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. We conduct public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. We do not take policy positions.

Our mission
We generate a foundation of facts that enriches the public dialogue and supports sound decision-making. We are nonprofit, nonpartisan and nonadvocacy. We value independence, objectivity, accuracy, rigor, humility, transparency and innovation.

And, again, the reason Trump won is the Russians put their thumb on the scale and pretty much screwed up our election.
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Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1608 on: March 20, 2017, 01:07:42 am »

Not true, I have read a lot on this topic.  CO2 is fixed by the photosynthetic pathway in plants and converted through the Calvin cycle into carbohydrates that can then be metabolized for cellular energy as well as the structural components of plants.  The three major metabolic products of most plants/trees are cellulose, hemi-cellulose, and lignin that are the structural components.  Nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizers are required for the production of amino acids that are further metabolized into proteins/enzymes.  Phosphate is part of the key energy compound Adenosine Triphosphate that is the central part of energy metabolism in virtually every living being/cell.  So much for the biochemistry lesson.

Then why do you object to the standard phrase of 'CO2 fertilization effect' which is used frequently in most scientific studies that address this issue?
Are you perhaps in a state of denial that CO2 has any beneficial effect in increasing plant growth, despite your apparent knowledge of biochemistry? (Sorry I confused with a psychologist. Must have been someone else who responded to one of your posts.)

Here's a scientific research paper that you don't have to pay for.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/full

"New study predicts a big jump in foliage growth in arid regions as carbon dioxide levels increase LONDON, 2 June – Australian scientists have solved one piece of the climate puzzle. They have confirmed the long-debated fertilization effect. Plants build their tissues by using photosynthesis to take carbon from the air around them. So more carbon dioxide should mean more vigorous plant growth – though until now this has been very difficult to prove. Randall Donohue of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organisation in Canberra, Australia, and his colleagues developed a mathematical model to predict the extent of this carbon dioxide fertilization effect."

Okay? Or are you still in denial?  ;)

In case you are not convinced by results from Australian scientists, perhaps you will be convinced by a similar report from NASA.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

"Results showed that carbon dioxide fertilization explains 70 percent of the greening effect, said co-author Ranga Myneni, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University. “The second most important driver is nitrogen, at 9 percent. So we see what an outsized role CO2 plays in this process.”
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Ray

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1609 on: March 20, 2017, 02:13:53 am »

You seem to have difficulty in understanding how such a document evolves before being published. Different members contribute sections to such a document, as a kind of discussion points. The group members then try and find consensus from the larger groups until a relatively stable agreement is reached after which the final report can be published. It's similar to the Scientific method, which usually starts with a hypothesis, which is then under peer review either accepted or rejected. The final document is not a version that is falsified to please governments, but the generally accepted version based on the available data at the time. Sometimes the underlying data is somewhat modified versus earlier reports, because new/additional/more accurate data is available (because advances in technology make new analysis possible).

Bart,
You seem to have difficulty in understanding what I actually wrote. I stated that my source was the final draft of Working Group I, which is based on the Physical Sciences. If such findings of low confidence in the claimed increases of certain types of extreme weather events were removed from the final report, that would imply a political bias.

I was hoping you could find a reference in the full AR5 report to such statements. Anyway, after further searching on the internet, I came across the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

As I understand, this report synthesizes the main findings of the AR5, based on contributions from the various Working Groups (1, 2 and 3), plus other groups which investigate matters of climate change mitigation and managing the risks of extreme events.   

Here's the final Synthesis Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_All_Topics.pdf

You'll find the section about extreme weather events on page 53. I'll just quote the references to low confidence, but in case you think I am biased, I am aware that for some extreme weather events in certain locations, the scientists do express a medium and sometimes even high confidence.

(1) There is low confidence that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale.

(2) There is low confidence in observed global-scale trends in droughts...

(3) There is also low confidence in the attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century

(4) There is low confidence that long-term changes in tropical cyclone activity are robust, and there is low confidence in the attribution of global changes to any particular cause.

Okay? I'm glad we've clarified that issue.  ;)

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LesPalenik

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1610 on: March 20, 2017, 03:59:12 am »

*** Small practical example ***
We have a long-standing tradition in our country (described in poems back in 1749, now a formally organized event since 1909), and that is an organized trip that visits 11 cities in the north of our country during one day, but it is only possibly to do during severe winters because the trip (the eleven-city run) is done on ice skates along the almost 200 km stretch of frozen-over canals and waterways that connect those cities.

The years that the trip was held on ice that was thick enough to support the weight of the crowds (upto 10,000 skaters and cheering crowds with checkpoints, music bands, and stands with hot beverages along the stretch) were:
1909, 1912, 1917, 1929, 1933, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1954, 1956, 1963, 1985, 1986, 1997, and not possible since then.

While too short to describe a multi-century trend, there are 2 interesting observations.
1. It is becoming increasingly rare, which would correlate with a global trend of increasing average temperature,
2. There seems to be kind of a correlation with the 11-year solar sun-spot activity cycle, which is recognized by scientists to show up on local scale phenomenae in many places around the world, but not at a global scale when taken together.

So using an 11 year period may locally introduce noisy data that distracts from the underlying trend, and that are the insights that scientists may stumble upon, and have to discuss, and agree on how to tackle the distractions.

To continue with the skating statistics after 1997, here is Canadian data about the winter ice on Rideau Canal in Ottawa, the largest naturally frozen skating rink in the world, as designated by Guinness World Records. The 2016-2017 season lasted 36 days, with the canal open for skating 25 of those days. The entire skateway was open for 18 days.

Rideau Canal skating season

« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 04:31:15 am by LesPalenik »
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1611 on: March 20, 2017, 08:16:33 am »


Here's a scientific research paper that you don't have to pay for.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/full

"New study predicts a big jump in foliage growth in arid regions as carbon dioxide levels increase LONDON, 2 June – Australian scientists have solved one piece of the climate puzzle. They have confirmed the long-debated fertilization effect. Plants build their tissues by using photosynthesis to take carbon from the air around them. So more carbon dioxide should mean more vigorous plant growth – though until now this has been very difficult to prove. Randall Donohue of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organisation in Canberra, Australia, and his colleagues developed a mathematical model to predict the extent of this carbon dioxide fertilization effect."

Okay? Or are you still in denial?  ;)
I'm not going to get into a debate about terminology.  If you want me to accept "fertilization effect" that's fine with me.  The critical point is that increase in biomass is unimportant except to ruminants who feed on grass.  The more pertinent issue is whether the amount of harvested grain or seed increases.  In this latter case more is accomplished via plant breeding than from any biomass improvement brought about through atmospheric CO2.  Look at the development of hybrid corn in the 1920s.  This had a huge impact on harvest yield.  Same thing with the work on wheat.  All of this took place while CO2 levels were pretty much stable.  As I noted in an earlier post, CO2 increases are likely to improve growth in trees/plants that are highly dependent on biomass production.  If we had better technologies for converting biomass to alcohol and other industrial chemicals this would be a net plus.  Unfortunately, the rate limiting processes are not in the generation of biomass but in the downstream processing to convert the cellulose to usable chemicals.

I can't wait to see the huge increase in Kudzu yields.

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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1612 on: March 20, 2017, 08:28:50 am »

And yet the numbers tell the story...

So, yeah, statistically, you are more likely to get the majority of your news from few sources and distrust most news sources. And yes, this is from the http://www.pewresearch.org but I'm pretty sure they aren't a left wing conspiracy group, right?


The issue isn't trust. Stations preach to the choir, even PBS.  More liberals and Democrats watch liberal PBS, so sure the trust is high.   The real issue it's bias.  And you were the one who said PBS was "left center bias" and then gave a link to prove it's bias.  You made the case for me. 

PBS should be as neutral as the IRS is in auditing non-profit corporations. :)   Since they aren't, and won't be, their funding should be terminated. 

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1613 on: March 20, 2017, 08:33:23 am »

Bart,
You seem to have difficulty in understanding what I actually wrote. I stated that my source was the final draft of Working Group I, which is based on the Physical Sciences. If such findings of low confidence in the claimed increases of certain types of extreme weather events were removed from the final report, that would imply a political bias.

I was hoping you could find a reference in the full AR5 report to such statements. Anyway, after further searching on the internet, I came across the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

As I understand, this report synthesizes the main findings of the AR5, based on contributions from the various Working Groups (1, 2 and 3), plus other groups which investigate matters of climate change mitigation and managing the risks of extreme events.   

Here's the final Synthesis Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_All_Topics.pdf
Thanks for posting the link.  It's interesting that on page 51 they state "Assessment of many studies covering a wide range of regions
and crops shows that negative impacts of climate change on crop  yields  have  been  more  common  than  positive  impacts  (high confidence)."

Perhaps the increase in CO2 is not as beneficial as one would predict given increased biomass production.  There's no such thing as a free lunch.

You should also read the page you cite a little more carefully.  Some cases such as extreme precipitation are strongly linked to while others such as extreme drought are less certain primarily because of a lack of direct observation.  The bottom line is that in some impact areas there is uncertainty while others there is a strong correlation.  As I have noted, this area of research is complicated with many interconnecting parts.  It's up to policy makers to determine whether more research is needed and in what areas as well as if mitigation efforts should be undertaken.  I'm not encouraged by President Trump's proposed budget that we will continue to be informed about what is happening regarding climate change.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1614 on: March 20, 2017, 08:53:01 am »

...I can't wait to see the huge increase in Kudzu yields.

Kudzu is all over lower Westchester county right above the NYC northern border of The Bronx.  Probably replacing other species.  You never saw it there a couple of decades ago.  There are also more geese crapping all over the place then ever.  But all that means that these species are expanding.  Nature is growing.  Or at least changing.  That's my point. 

Climate change and global warming supporters only push the negatives.  What we need are analysis of all the changes, both negative and positive, so we can create policy that is fully informed.  It would also go a long way in providing trust to those who suspect they're getting conned.  I recently had someone try to sell me a retirement financial package.  When he got done telling me how great it would be for me, I asked him about what the downside was.  He said there wasn't any.  "Rinnnggg."  The bells went off and I showed him the door.  There's a lot of snake-oil salesmen in the environmental and global warming industry as well.  They want you to buy the package yet only show one side.  People feel they're being fooled. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1615 on: March 20, 2017, 09:15:35 am »

Okay? I'm glad we've clarified that issue.  ;)

Not really, because it becomes increasingly more obvious that you've misinterpreted what the terms actually mean. Either that, or you are deliberately misstating the warnings of the report by cherry-picking of what you think supports your claims. But for now I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume the first.

From Box Introduction 1 Risk and the Management of an Uncertain Future
Quote
Risk is often represented as the probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the magnitude of the consequences if these events occur. Therefore, high risk can result not only from high probability outcomes but also from low probability outcomes with very severe consequences. This makes it important to assess the full range of possible outcomes, from low probability tail outcomes to very likely outcomes. For example, it is unlikely that global mean sea level will rise by more than one meter in this century, but the consequence of a greater rise could be so severe that this possibility becomes a significant part of risk assessment. Similarly, low confidence but high consequence outcomes are also policy relevant; for instance the possibility that the response of Amazon forest could substantially amplify climate change merits consideration despite our currently imperfect ability to project the outcome.

Box Introduction.2 Communicating the Degree of Certainty in Assessment Findings
Quote
The IPCC Guidance Note on Uncertainty defines a common approach to evaluating and communicating the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process. Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an assignment of confidence, especially for findings with stronger agreement and multiple independent lines of evidence. The degree of certainty in each key finding of the assessment is based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement. The summary terms for evidence are:
limited, medium or robust. For agreement, they are low, medium or high. Levels of confidence a include five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and are typeset in italics, e.g., medium confidence.

You seem to interpret those qualifiers as level of likelihood, but that's an entirely different metric. Low confidence may mean that the amount of data was limited or prediction models were inaccurate. The key data could still show a trend or have mixed numbers of observations over time.

For example, when looking at a global picture the supporting data for a given parameter may be inconclusive, but on a regional level, they may very obvious. Think e.g. increasing level of rainfall in parts of the Northern hemisphere, and increasing drought in equatorial regions. Globally these may somewhat level each other out, but regionally they are a cause of concern. Also, more historical data sets may have fewer observations (thus lower confidence), while more recent ones may be readily available (higher confidence). That would reduce the confidence level over the longer period.

Another example straight from the report:
Quote
Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979 (Figure 1.10). There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of natural internal variability in that region.

The more I read of the report, the more it looks like you are indeed cherry-picking, trolling. And by only focusing on extreme weather you make matters even worse.

For example:
Quote
There is low confidence that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. The strength of the evidence is limited mainly by a lack of long-term records from unmanaged catchments. Moreover, floods are strongly influenced by many human activities impacting catchments, making the attribution of detected changes to climate change difficult.

Do I need to go on? I'll emphasize the parts you conveniently left out of your quotes:
Quote
There is low confidence in observed global-scale trends in droughts, due to lack of direct observations, dependencies of inferred trends on the choice of the definition for drought, and due to geographical inconsistencies in drought trends. There is also low confidence in the attribution of changes in drought over global land areas since the mid-20th century, due to the same observational uncertainties and difficulties in distinguishing decadal scale variability in drought from long-term trends.

So were you selectively quoting, cherry picking, without full understanding(?) or deliberately?.

Need more?

Why not let us stick to the summaries at the beginning of the chapters?
1.1 Observed changes in the climate system
Quote
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.
Quote
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.
1.2 Past and recent drivers of climate change
Quote
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era driven largely by economic and population growth. From 2000 to 2010 emissions were the highest in history. Historical emissions have driven atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide to levels that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years, leading to an uptake of energy by the climate system.
1.3 Attribution of climate changes and impacts
Quote
The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since AR4. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid- 20th century. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate.

Conclusion:
Trump's proposals to ignore climate change suck big time.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 09:21:34 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1616 on: March 20, 2017, 09:16:09 am »


... It's up to policy makers to determine whether more research is needed and in what areas as well as if mitigation efforts should be undertaken.  I'm not encouraged by President Trump's proposed budget that we will continue to be informed about what is happening regarding climate change.
The problem is policy makers are pushing the climate change agenda.  They are not attempting to be fair and balanced  and show both sides.  So they continue to push research and present data that mainly "proves" one side.  That's not science.  That's politics.  Additionally, most of the politics of it does not take into consideration the workers in the carbon fuel industry who lost or will lose their jobs due to changes in government regulations or because of the policies of environmentalists.    Trump saw the opening and appealed to these people in the swing states and won the election because of it.  Hillary never gave them hope.  Instead, she spit on them.  Elections have consequences. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1617 on: March 20, 2017, 09:34:43 am »

I just received the following email from a friend. Is this fake news?

As you could have Googled:
http://www.snopes.com/muslim-woman-sworn-new-york-city-civil-judge/
or
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/12/15/muslim-judge-in-new-york-takes-oath-on-the-koran/?utm_term=.1448eb006f49
as two links at the top of the list with links. And BTW, she seems to have affirmed, not swear.

Quote
Has it already been discussed in this thread?

Why would it? What's the connection to Trump?

I'll skip commenting on the further drivel by 'your friend'.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 09:55:46 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1618 on: March 20, 2017, 09:55:37 am »

And yet the numbers tell the story...

They might (tell the story) but what's the moral of the story?

The supposed moral is that the left is better informed, getting its news from a variety of sources. But when all those "various" sources are on the left, who cares? The left is just as biased as the right.

This leaves us, independents, who get our news and opinions from both (all) sides, from HuffPost to Breitbart, and anything in between, at a distinct advantage.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1619 on: March 20, 2017, 10:09:15 am »

Since Jeff likes infographics, here is one for him :)
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