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Author Topic: Fuji expects the MF camera market to expand significantly because of the GFX.  (Read 3527 times)

Theodoros

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 DPReview posted an interview with Toshihisa Iida, Fujifilm's General Manager of the Sales and Marketing Group and Toru Takahashi, Director, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Fujifilm's Optical Device & Electronic Imaging Products Division, that was taken at Photokina. https://www.dpreview.com/interviews/9425580824/photokina-2016-fujifilm-interview

Among the questions was the marketing future that Fuji expects because of the GFX,

 Q: Do you have a medium-format market share target in mind for the GFX 50S?

 A: "It’s difficult to say, because we’re really targeting high-resolution 35mm DSLRs with this product. The current medium-format space is full of cameras that are too expensive, too heavy and too bulky. The current medium-format market is small. People are buying 35mm full-frame cameras [instead]. So maybe our solution will revitalize the category."

It is important to note, that FF DSLRs sales are of millions of units annually, so if Fuji succeeds to attract just a fraction out of the higher end DSLR users as to choose the GFX instead, the MF market of cameras can expand significantly. As a consequence, the market of technical cameras compatible with the GFX should also be expected to rise significantly and perhaps independent lens makers, could expand their range of lenses to include wider circle lenses too.

My opinion is that the GFX sales will be surprisingly high for the following reasons:
1. It will attract many out of the MF users of older platforms that still use film as they will be able to use their existing series of lenses on the GFX.
2. It will attract many out of the pros that use higher end dslrs as they will be able to finance the GFX just by selling their DSLRs and some lenses
3. It will attract many out of the technical camera users that still use sheet film (or 6x9), as it will add LV and shutter on their view camera, but will give them the opportunity to use a smaller & lighter bellows camera too...
4. It will attract many customers out of those looking for an affordable S/H CCD MFDB (with poor LV) as to add on their equipment.

Lets not forget that Mr.Oosting, (Hassy's CEO) said the same about "attracting customers out of the higher End DSLR users" in his LuLa interview at the begging of this year...

I tend to agree with Fuji & Hassy that the MF market will expand significantly, I even don't find total figures of around 50K units out of all makers to be impossible (given the hudrends of thousands of higher end FF DSLRs that are sold annually)...  What are your thoughts?



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TonyVentourisPhotography

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It's going to be a real interesting landscape.  That's for sure.  I myself have found my bags on most gigs consists of a medium format kit / tech cam and an Olympus m43 kit.  The Full frame DSLR stuff has fewer and fewer uses. 

Honestly, the Leica S was the first medium format camera I ever considered using instead of a DSLR.  It was the first I felt responded and worked the same way, but offered me everything the larger sensor could without the bulk of an H or Phase setup. (or the slow dinosaur mode of work and feature set)  I think the new 1DX and the Fuji are going to give upper DSLR users some serious tug towards MF.  Why not?  If the quality is better, the size and weigh get closer, and the price is closer...for a lot of studio, fine art, landscape, and portrait photographers...I honestly see the MF being the better choice. 

I see full drame dslrs being more the sports camera, extreme condition and situation camera, time lapse cameras, etc...  Honestly the top line Canon and Nikons are still the most rugged cameras ive used.  They can take serious punishment.  When the quality level of an APS-C or M43 camera can handle the situations as well as they can...why opt for the extra bulk?  I also see the DSLR's still being the cheaper alternative for a lot of real estate and architectural photographers.  Then again, I would love to see a good solution for the Fuji MF.  Or a purpose built olympus shift lens on M43.  I love my tech cam...but a tilting screen, live view, bracketing, and digital exposure setting would make life much easier.  (yeah I know the alpa fps can do some of that...but that ends up being quite a setup.
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BernardLanguillier

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Agreed.

As far as I am concerned I simply need sometimes the degree of subject isolation provided by my 400mm f2.8 on the D5. But I could see myself doing most of the rest with a combination of high end APS-C and MF.

This being said there is rather limited incentive in using products from the same brand for those 2 applications, perhaps consistency of UI and look of the lenses/colors if that is indeed there. So Fuji may indeed end up being positioned better than anybody else for photographers not needing speciality lenses.

Cheers,
Bernard

ErikKaffehr

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Hi,

I agree to a significant extent. On the other hand, I happen to shoot with a Sony A7rII and I feel that camera tick almost all my check boxes. All new MFD uses Sony sensors, except Leica S, and that brings something like 1.6 times the surface area. So, Sony based 44x33 mm certainly brings an advantage over Sony based  24x36, question is if the surface advantage is just surfacial or bring real tangible benefits. That may depend on specific needs.

Fuji offering low end MFD as a step up from APS-C certainly makes some sense. It is not that sure that stepping up from 24x36 mm to 44x33 mm makes the same sense.

Best regards
Erik

It's going to be a real interesting landscape.  That's for sure.  I myself have found my bags on most gigs consists of a medium format kit / tech cam and an Olympus m43 kit.  The Full frame DSLR stuff has fewer and fewer uses. 

Honestly, the Leica S was the first medium format camera I ever considered using instead of a DSLR.  It was the first I felt responded and worked the same way, but offered me everything the larger sensor could without the bulk of an H or Phase setup. (or the slow dinosaur mode of work and feature set)  I think the new 1DX and the Fuji are going to give upper DSLR users some serious tug towards MF.  Why not?  If the quality is better, the size and weigh get closer, and the price is closer...for a lot of studio, fine art, landscape, and portrait photographers...I honestly see the MF being the better choice. 

I see full drame dslrs being more the sports camera, extreme condition and situation camera, time lapse cameras, etc...  Honestly the top line Canon and Nikons are still the most rugged cameras ive used.  They can take serious punishment.  When the quality level of an APS-C or M43 camera can handle the situations as well as they can...why opt for the extra bulk?  I also see the DSLR's still being the cheaper alternative for a lot of real estate and architectural photographers.  Then again, I would love to see a good solution for the Fuji MF.  Or a purpose built olympus shift lens on M43.  I love my tech cam...but a tilting screen, live view, bracketing, and digital exposure setting would make life much easier.  (yeah I know the alpa fps can do some of that...but that ends up being quite a setup.
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chez

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The biggest hurdle I see if they are thinking of competing with the full frame market is the lens lineup as well as a full system. Where are the long focal length for medium format? Where is the flash system? Where are the super wides...the nice 2.8 zooms...the 1.2 primes. All this is available today on the full frame market...will it ever be available on the medium format market.

Then...the biggest question. What difference will I see at print sizes to say 16x24? What is that extra cost buying me and the customer?
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eronald

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Fuji are an imaging company with a strong tie to the "marriage" photo  business in Japan.

I think they still have enough captive trade customers to gain significant marketshare and expand MF use, even if they have to give the cameras away to the photographers who buy bespoke dyesub printers and supplies.

The real test will come when they try to move out of this niche - but so far their other ventures with the Xpro and XT have been remarkably successful.

Edmund
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 09:11:45 pm by eronald »
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SrMi

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Hi,

I agree to a significant extent. On the other hand, I happen to shoot with a Sony A7rII and I feel that camera tick almost all my check boxes. All new MFD uses Sony sensors, except Leica S, and that brings something like 1.6 times the surface area. So, Sony based 44x33 mm certainly brings an advantage over Sony based  24x36, question is if the surface advantage is just surfacial or bring real tangible benefits. That may depend on specific needs.

Fuji offering low end MFD as a step up from APS-C certainly makes some sense. It is not that sure that stepping up from 24x36 mm to 44x33 mm makes the same sense.

Best regards
Erik

Recently I've been shooting landscape with H5D-50C (same sensor as in GFX and X1D) and A7rII (mostly with 24-70/f2.8). I often shot  the same or similar scene with both cameras, and to my eyes the images with H5D are different, better ... at least on screen. There may be no difference in print or there may be an improvement in A7rII images with different lenses, but so far my experience tells me that MF images are better (only for good images, mediocre image look the same). I definitely enjoy MF images more than those from Sony A7rII: to look at them and to work with them. The difference is not large, I think everyone can be happy with landscape images created with A7rII, D810 or Leica SL (the cameras I know and use).

I reserve the right to change my opinion later :-).


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uaiomex

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I think most important thing for the whoe industry about Fuji's GFX is that they are treating this camera as a Super35 camera and not as a MF gear and the will price it at such. And that is the most important thing for us in the consumer side. Finally, the eagle will land. Soon, the absurd high prices paid for MF equipment will be history and for some sour souvenirs.
Cheers!


Fuji are an imaging company with a strong tie to the "marriage" photo  business in Japan.

I think they still have enough captive trade customers to gain significant marketshare and expand MF use, even if they have to give the cameras away to the photographers who buy bespoke dyesub printers and supplies.

The real test will come when they try to move out of this niche - but so far their other ventures with the Xpro and XT have been remarkably successful.

Edmund
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Theodoros

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Surely Sony isn't the kind of sensor maker that will invest on sensors that won't provide profit... Talking about MF sensors, the market volume up to now wasn't enough to justify Sony's investment.
I have to say, I was surprised a couple of years ago, when Sony introduced the 50mp sensor, then I noticed that resolution was carefully chosen to provide 2, or 4, or 8K motion picture captures and thought that they are looking in future hybrid for stills & motion picture applications... Then the 100mp sensor came, which has much the same properties, but sensor resolution was chosen for motion picture capabilities of "HDTV 8K" instead of "cinema 8K".

Therefore, given that the market for the 50mp sensor will expand significantly with the introduction of the GFX, perhaps up to a volume that will "just" justify Sony producing it, one should expect that the 100mp sensor will soon find its way on a "mass production" camera... Surely, if one examines the design of the GFX mount, he can notice that the mount has been design with the provision to house the full size of the 54x40mm sensor and I'm sure, Sony would "help" any maker willing to make the move.

One thing is for sure though, the MF market will expand and it won't be a modest expansion, it's Sony's will for this to happen and therefore it will (soon) happen, whether Fuji will achieve the expansion alone up to the figures that Sony intends as to justify the volume required for making the sensors, or whether there will be more MF entries from mass makers, remains to be seen.












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Petrus

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The biggest hurdle I see if they are thinking of competing with the full frame market is the lens lineup as well as a full system. Where are the long focal length for medium format? Where is the flash system? Where are the super wides...the nice 2.8 zooms...the 1.2 primes. All this is available today on the full frame market...will it ever be available on the medium format market.

Then...the biggest question. What difference will I see at print sizes to say 16x24? What is that extra cost buying me and the customer?

I do not see this as a major problem. These miniature-MF cameras are not meant to directly compete or replace action/wildlife oriented 135 and APS-C format DSLRs with fast/long lenses. There are a good number of photographers (I avoid saying "many") who really do not need 15 fps shooting speeds and f/1.2 primes, ultra long lenses and fast zooms. Actually I might be one of those after retirement from press photography. Getting a "slow" camera is sometimes actually a good thing what comes to seeing with fresh eyes.
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ErikKaffehr

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Hi,

Now, that we no longer have film, there is no strong reason to keep the 36x24mm format. Sensor makers will not design sensors in every possible size, though.

It is perfectly reasonable to have a 44x33 mm sensor as a larger alternative to 36x24mm. Now we just see a few lenses designed exclusively for that format, but we will see more lenses if the X1D and the GFX sell well.

System dimensions increase with sensor size. Camera can be made small, see the Sony A7 but lenses will be relative large. Both Fuji and Hasselblad seem to design pretty small lenses. The short flange distance helps and both firms use quite conservative apertures. The lenses are probably quite affordable, at least by medium format prices.

I am not so sure there is a large market for MFD. The smaller formats are pretty impressive.

There may not be a great need for super telephoto and that kind of stuff. Some photographers are quite happy with APS-C for wildlife. A larger format needs a longer lens.


Best regards
Erik

« Last Edit: October 09, 2016, 05:59:46 am by ErikKaffehr »
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Theodoros

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I do not see this as a major problem. These miniature-MF cameras are not meant to directly compete or replace action/wildlife oriented 135 and APS-C format DSLRs with fast/long lenses. There are a good number of photographers (I avoid saying "many") who really do not need 15 fps shooting speeds and f/1.2 primes, ultra long lenses and fast zooms. Actually I might be one of those after retirement from press photography. Getting a "slow" camera is sometimes actually a good thing what comes to seeing with fresh eyes.

+1

The "action" DSLR market that concerns sports and wildlife photographers, is dominated by Canon & Nikon flagships with mirrorless being totally absent from this market section.
On the link provided in the O/P, Fuji representatives are clear that they are looking to attract customers "out of the high resolution DSLR market" which attracts far more consumers and pros as to use "instead of a bulky and very expensive" MF camera alternative...

EDIT: I guess for Fuji representatives to call the MF market "bulky & very expensive" it means that they both provide a reasoning (out of the marketing analysis they've done) on to why a part of the market doesn't invest on MF (although they would like too), as well as hoping to attract the part of the market that does use MF currently, but does find the investment they've done overpriced and bulky...
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 11:48:37 am by Theodoros »
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TonyVentourisPhotography

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Well so far the flash system has been profoto integration.  For most medium format applications that I've shot in, speed lights have rarely been worth anything.  Especially at ISO 50 F/11.  Then again with cmos, and contract focus, fast apertures and higher ISO might just be a workable future in the medium format path. 

The biggest hurdle I see if they are thinking of competing with the full frame market is the lens lineup as well as a full system. Where are the long focal length for medium format? Where is the flash system? Where are the super wides...the nice 2.8 zooms...the 1.2 primes. All this is available today on the full frame market...will it ever be available on the medium format market.

Then...the biggest question. What difference will I see at print sizes to say 16x24? What is that extra cost buying me and the customer?
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Theodoros

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I would prefer it if this doesn't turn to be another MF to smaller format comparison for image quality or the ability of one to see the difference. Undeniably, there where thousands of discussions about that in the past, but where rather comparing oranges with apples as the technology used in one format was CCD and on the other Cmos...

I believe there is nobody that can argue that a 70% bigger sensor, has significant (and visible) advantage over a smaller sensor of similar technology for all aspects of photography.

Despite the differences in quality (or not) between Cmos and CCD sensors in the past, there where many "forced" (in a way) to use an MFDB because they had to use technical cameras alongside their DSLR equipment, or because of the high sync speeds that leaf shutter lenses would offer them, or because they had to use "true color" multishot technology as to achieve what couldn't be otherwise be performed up to the required quality. It did came at a price, but if it couldn't be done otherwise... then it couldn't!

Then Cmos sensors came (with a huge delay) and vanished all the disadvantages one could ever claim over smaller formats, but the size and the price. Now the GFX comes along to terminate both the size and the price disadvantage, only asking a small amount on top of DSLRs, which I believe, many will consider "sensible" for the (undeniable due to sensor size) quality increase.

OTOH, the minimized mounting distance makes the camera almost as usable as an MFDB mounted on a sliding back when used on a view camera and usability with leaf shutter lenses is feasible which retains the advantages of MF over Dslrs for particular uses, leaving only multishot (for the moment) out of the equation and then letting out the mirrorbox, of which the presence with MF has less uses than with smaller formats and gives an advantage only for certain kinds of MF applications.

Therefore, it is logical to conclude that there will be an attraction out of the existing market of high resolution DSLRs, other than "stealing" customers  to some (unknown) extend from the considerably pricier modular offerings that already exist in the market.

The question then is how many, or what percentage, out of the high resolution DSLR users can be attracted... IMO, the amount can be considerable (up to many tens of thousands).

To start with there are the "wedding" pros, which using MF adds them prestige to their business, then many of them use fast MF lenses with film and DSLRs for lower lighting conditions and adding this camera will allow them to share their lenses of the MF platform they use and abandon their DSLRs altogether (shrinking the size of equipment to be used is always among the first priorities a wedding pro has).
Then, there is the hundreds of thousands of (unsupported) platforms from past legends (Bronica, Rollei and many more) that where left "orphan" from entering the digital era and that their lenses can be (finally) come alive once more.
Next, there is those that print big and simply couldn't reach up to a MF system.
Then there is the landscapers that use cameras with movements with film, where this camera can offer them much more flexibility by only adding a T/S adapter on it.
Next, there is architectural photography pros, that (again) through a well design adapter, can turn every wide image circle lens to a T/S one, or use the camera on the rear standard of their bellows camera.
Other than the above, there are the passionate "enthusiasts" that are in an "upgrade" path anyway, many of which will find "jumping to MF" a natural process, either if they need it or not.
And then, there is always many that believe their skills are advanced and what their photographs luck, is better equipment.

Now given that there are hundreds of thousands (maybe even a million) of high resolution DSLRs (both "mirrorbox" and "mirroless") sold each year, Fuji's decision to price the camera on what would be the "natural top" of them, seems a very wise decision as it may attract even wealthy starters. OTOH, the camera did "shadow" everything else presented in Photokina and this is a hint on the market appreciation that it may have.

Given all the above, but the coming of the Hasselblad X1D on top of that as to enhance GFX's presence by adding a nice product on top and "change the world as we know it" ("stolen" from the  REM song), I do expect that many will be surprised with the numbers of marketing share  that MF may achieve... I think that Fuji (and Sony) will consider anything else than 25K units annually a failure and I won't be surprised if the total MF market will approach or exceed 50K units.

EDIT: Additionally, if a "FF" 54x40mm size sensor will be added by Fuji (or other mass maker) in the (near) future, it will provide a natural (further) upgrade path, which can lead of MF regaining its "past glory" (and numbers) as it was with film...


« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 05:07:25 pm by Theodoros »
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