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Author Topic: Free Lunches  (Read 16247 times)

Rob C

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Free Lunches
« on: September 22, 2016, 03:29:29 pm »


In view of the apparent temporary - if understandable - death of this section of LuLa, I felt an obligation to try to apply some helpful sparks to its chest by capturing a passing thought. Perhaps I should just have let it go on its way, or perhaps not.

Anyhow.

The media, and some sections of the politically minded populace go on and on about saving the planet, cutting emissions and so forth. Overall, that seems likely to be a good thing, but how it can be achieved appears, to me, to be more and more difficult to understand as we humans grow in number.

If you think about cars, then folks say electricity is the new holy grail, and many traditional car makers are also actively pursuing that route. So, just for a moment, imagine they have managed to convert all of us into drivers of electric cars. Pollution problem solved, then?

Not quite: how are we going to make enough electricity to charge up all of those batteries that will, we imagine, power us into that great, clean new future?

There are already massive electricity shortages around the world; several poorer countries have regular outages; many of their people don't even have electricity for normal, taken-for-granted domestic use. Britian is risking its existence with more and more nuclear stations, and what gets done there isn't being done in isolation. France (and I think Germany) is even more heavily committed to that source and we seem to be neglecting the 'green' alternatives, such as they are. The little matter of radioactive disposal is pretty much ignored in public debate as is the possibility of terrorist attack on one of these power stations; we prefer to look the other way.

Every day or night, countless millions of drivers are going to be plugging in; it's already obvious to the national grids when the populace decides to make its lunch, switch on its electric blanket and cosy up in front of the mental chasm that's popular television. Will the electricity be there to handle all of that? And if so, will it have to suffer the irony of being conjoured up by diesel turbines, and even smaller, family-sized generators? Will coal make a reappearance, bringing us back all of those lovely brown/yellow smogs we used to enjoy so much? (Anyone remember blowing their nose when they came back home from an adventure out there in the cloak of invisibility?)

Maybe, equally ironically, the change from petrol/diesel cars to electrically powered ones will be the saviour of the oil companies who will now be selling their products overwhelmingly - and more simply and directly with fewer middlemen - to the electricity companies instead of directly to the public! Yeah, the North Sea lives again; Free Scotland will become a reality and Nicola will be made a saint.

So everything will be fine. And clean.

RSL

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 03:59:53 pm »

Hi Rob, Unfortunately, the misinformation put forth by ignoramuses in "The China Syndrome" has scared other ignoramuses poopless about nuclear power. Three Mile Island was put forth by the media as a catastrophe when in fact the containment built into the plant worked exactly as designed. Chernobyl was a typical case of Russian dictatorial incompetence. Fukushima was a warning (which should have been unnecessary) that nukes shouldn't be built close to a coast. But all in all nukes are the cleanest source of power in the world. They beat the hell out of bird-blending windmills and bird-frying solar systems.

Eventually, if we can find a really good way to store electrical potential fossil fuel may become a thing of the past, and nuclear generation may supplant it. For now, without fossil fuel civilization would come to a screeching halt practically overnight.
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Telecaster

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 04:58:08 pm »

Yes, this is a big issue. Personally I think the most realistic way to address our energy needs is via diversifying our energy sources. (By "our" I mean the human species.) Put everything on the table and evaluate it. For instance, the way we're currently using nuclear has its problems but there are other methods, and smarter approaches to current methods, that should be cleaner and safer. Even "clean coal," which right now is little more than marketing BS, should be feasible with the proper tech. New types of wind turbines—no spinning blades—should address Russ' (and my) bird-blending concerns. Technological strides in solar panel production and efficiency make solar an increasingly more affordable and effective thing. Oil isn't going anywhere any time soon, so let's be as smart as possible about using it.

There are also "out there" ideas like mining Helium-3 on the Moon and using it in fusion reactors. Because the process would generate no neutrons, the radioactive waste product (mainly protons) would have electric charge and could thus be contained electromagnetically. Neutron containment is an issue with current reactors. This is technologically feasible, and other similarly out there approaches may be as well, but would we be willing & able to commit effort and $$€€££ to actually doing it or any of the others? Dunno.

It seems to me that we humans are really good at responding to big issues and crises when they're in our faces, but utterly crap about any sort of long-range thinking or planning. Or even just living in the absence of immediate crisis. Makes sense as day-to-day survival has been Job One for most of our existence as a species.

-Dave-
« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 05:09:39 pm by Telecaster »
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Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2016, 04:20:50 am »

Don't forget that battery technologies are still evolving every 5 to 10 years as new materials, biochemistry and methods of manufacturing advance. This is an area of advancement in tapping into nature I don't think fossil fuels or nuke technology has even come close to. There's also strategies with the use of batteries on the energy consumption side as low impedance circuitry gets smaller and smaller while using even less electricity to operate.

http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

But then there's this...

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602245/why-we-still-dont-have-better-batteries/
« Last Edit: September 23, 2016, 04:25:21 am by Tim Lookingbill »
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GrahamBy

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2016, 05:41:13 am »

Battery technology doesn't change the fact that you need to charge them: efficiencies there, and in modern electric motors, are already very high.

The problem is trying to get a rational debate: France was doing a good job of keeping its eye on the ball with carbon emissions until Fukushima, then rationality went out the window. Along the way, road and air transport are starting to win back passengers from the clean electric trains, largely due to incompetent management of the railways (cheapest train Lyon-Barcelona was slightly more than twice the cost of flying a couple of months back). It's also coming out that the big push to diesel cars was a scam built on lies about their emissions... VW just happened to be the first to be caught.

Then there is another side: total transport related CO2 emissions are less than meat-production greenhouse emissions, when you add up farting cows, land clearance, transport of crops to feed to the cows to feed to the humans. Encouraging a move to reducing meat consumption was not even on the agenda at COP21... too nasty for the agro-industry lobby groups.

But the really big issue is population. The UN recently lifted its world population projection for 2100 to 12 billion. Almost all of the extra 5 billion are predicted to be in Africa, which is absolutely the worst prepared continent to handle that (part of the reason being awful governments and poor education, which is why the increase will be happening there in the first place...). That implies huge migratory pressures, hence very difficult political situations to discuss rationally pretty much anything, since there will be so much opportunity for populist parties to win votes with incoherent scare tactics.

Of course that depends on lots of long-term assumptions. Thinking about which of those might fail is not a very cheerful prospect either.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2016, 06:40:29 am »

Just stopping eating meat would make a large contribution for a cleaner planet...

jfirneno

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2016, 07:14:40 am »

Solar and wind technologies have shown themselves to be unsuited for inclusion in an electrical distribution grid.  They can be used to store energy (e.g. hydrogen produced electrolysis of water) but this would still be a minor component and still requires a switch over to hydrogen combustion turbines.  Fossil fuels and nuclear are the only technologies currently capable of producing the tremendous amounts of electrical energy that our global civilization currently consumes.  When fossil fuels run out we'll be left with various versions of fission fueled steam turbine systems.  Unless of course our civilization collapses of its own accord.  In that case we'll use wood, dung and peat as our ancestors did.  Of course that's gonna make it rough to recharge our DSLRs.
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GrahamBy

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2016, 07:48:39 am »

Solar and wind technologies have shown themselves to be unsuited for inclusion in an electrical distribution grid.

Really? They seem to be integrated into quite a few grids. Do you mean beyond a certain % ? Denmark was vaunting that on several occasions this year it was generating more than 100% of their needs from renewables (and hence exporting the balance into the European interconnected grids).

It seems if you are willing to count solid biofuels, renewables were generating >25% of European electricity in 2014, with a strong upward trend. I'm not going to be so silly as to extrapolate that to say that we can shut down nuclear and coal, of course, but your statement seems a little extreme.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2016, 07:59:04 am »

... Chernobyl was a typical case of Russian dictatorial incompetence...

Thank God, Russ, there are no more neither dictatorships, nor incompetence in today's world  ;)

And Rob, yes, great question.

RSL

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2016, 08:09:58 am »

Thank God, Russ, there are no more neither dictatorships, nor incompetence in today's world  ;)

Never gonna happen, Slobodan. You know that probably even better than I know that.
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Otto Phocus

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2016, 09:01:00 am »

It can be a self-fulfilling circle.

50% of the Civilian Nuclear Reactors in the United States are 30+ years old.  The rest of the reactors are older than 20 years.  Our "youngest" civilian power reactors was built in 1996 ( Watts Bar 1 in TN)
(source www.eia.gov).  Note that this is slightly inaccurate as the WB1 reactor was the latest one built.  There have been older reactors that have been upgraded since then.

Watts Bar 2 reactor should be operational next year which will make WB2 the youngest reactor we have.

So we have older reactors using older technologies.  Some people don't want us to build new nuclear reactors because they feel they are hazardous.

So when the older reactors fail , as old stuff often does, the anti-nuclear people point their fingers and proudly state "See?  We told you that nuclear reactors are hazardous."  Yeah, that 30 year old reactor had a malfunction... its 30 years old.

My opinion:  We need to get rid of the older big reactors and start building more smaller reactors with the current technology.

Newer technology should make the newer reactors safer.

Having more smaller reactors should make any accident, or terrorist attack, less hazardous than a similar accident/attack against a big reactor.  I also imagine that smaller reactors are easier to secure.

I don't think that nuclear fission is the ultimate energy answer.  But I do feel that it is the best interim energy source we have until future technology comes about.
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RSL

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2016, 09:29:17 am »

I agree with you, Otto -- all the way. The main reason our reactors are so old is "The China Syndrome." About twenty years before that stupid movie came out I was involved peripherally in an effort to develop small nukes to power USAF radar sites along the old radar "highline." There was some progress for the more isolated sites, but the movie stopped that idea cold, though the navy went on to power ships with similar reactors. We've now wasted decades of development in what, I agree, is an essential intermediate step toward something like cold fusion. I don't have a big problem with fossil fuels. The whole reaction to them is overwrought BS, mostly cooked up for political reasons. But fossil fuels are relatively inefficient and eventually we're going to run out of them.
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Rob C

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2016, 09:57:20 am »

It's probably a simplistic thought, and I suppose the usual terrorists would doom it, but doesn't it seem kinda obvious that harnessing the great wastes of the existing deserts (those without mountains of shifting sands) with solar panels would provide not just heaps of energy but also employment for those in areas with little or none (work)?

With regard to the vegetarian diet: I used to eat plenty of meat, as well as lots of swordfish, all wonderfully prepared by my better-half. Left to my own devices and non-existent culinary skills, I have discovered that using pasta, along with half of a red pepper and a whole Italian green pepper (the latter the longish things, not Weston's muses) chopped into small bits, with gallons of virgin olive oil, half a coffee-spoonful of each of several herbs, had cold on the terrace, is amazingly good to eat. Some Viña Sol, and there you go! I tried adding some tinned mussels but they were horrid: lousy sauce in which they came ruined one such dish. I suppose I should think about buying some, fresh, and doing something with them myself, but then that gets complicated and the price goes up and on and on, and I may as well just go back and eat out again as usual.

There used to be - probably still is - a motorway service station on the route north to Calais, which had one of those massive wind towers with a propeller thing atop. It's the only one I have ever seen; blame, or thank my sheltered life. Always blowing quite hard whenever we were there, and the blades made rather a din, but hardly posed a threat unless to a very slow and short-sighted bird! Of course, should such a blade become detached near a car park...

Having a long row of them out to sea seems quite a good idea to anyone not really into seascape photography... far enough out and you'd not even hear them. Tidal capture is also a great idea - with the huge tides in the seas around the UK we should fare rather well, as would parts of North America.

As so many have asked: if we can get to the Moon...?

Rob

GrahamBy

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2016, 11:39:51 am »

Two problems with solar panels in the desert: keeping them clean and moving the power to where it's needed.

See also "political stability"...
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jfirneno

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2016, 12:48:19 pm »

Really? They seem to be integrated into quite a few grids. Do you mean beyond a certain % ? Denmark was vaunting that on several occasions this year it was generating more than 100% of their needs from renewables (and hence exporting the balance into the European interconnected grids).

It seems if you are willing to count solid biofuels, renewables were generating >25% of European electricity in 2014, with a strong upward trend. I'm not going to be so silly as to extrapolate that to say that we can shut down nuclear and coal, of course, but your statement seems a little extreme.

I believe Spain built an enormous wind power infrastructure that has been a disaster.  In the US where solar and wind were incentivized by the government to make them less unattractive the balancing off of shortfalls from the solar/wind component using gas turbines ended up eclipsing the component coming from the solar/wind component.

A power grid has to be carefully balanced against demand.  Wind and solar waits for no man but gas turbines can be brought on line and ramped as needed.

There's a giant solar array in the California desert.  It's composed of thousands of mirrors that reflect sunlight onto a tower that boils water to run a turbine.  Now, it doesn't get much sunnier than the desert southwest of the US.  This facility augments its output using gas turbines when the sun isn't optimum.  It's been in service for several years.  It has never ben able to match the minimum specification for solar power it was specified to produce.  So basically it's mostly a fossil fuel generating facility.  But the mirrors do have other functions.  They've managed to cook a bunch of birds and divert plane traffic out of fear of blinding the pilots.

My own belief is that wind and solar can be used incrementally for non-grid applications.  And possibly in the future we can power individual households in a different way than a power grid.  But I think we're decades away from any practical alternative to the power plants we currently use.
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Colorado David

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2016, 01:58:57 pm »

Just a thought here.  What if everyone was responsible for the generation of their own electricity? Do you need electricity? Fine. Put solar panels on your roof and install your own wind turbine.  Develop your own battery storage system and inverter to power your appliances, or those that really only need 7-12 volt DC could use it directly since there is no longer loss from transmission. If everyone were their own supplier of electricity, I'll bet they would be much more frugal with their consumption. Just a thought.

jfirneno

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2016, 02:30:16 pm »

Just a thought here.  What if everyone was responsible for the generation of their own electricity? Do you need electricity? Fine. Put solar panels on your roof and install your own wind turbine.  Develop your own battery storage system and inverter to power your appliances, or those that really only need 7-12 volt DC could use it directly since there is no longer loss from transmission. If everyone were their own supplier of electricity, I'll bet they would be much more frugal with their consumption. Just a thought.

I like that idea.  I think it'll take a lot of time to wean people from the conveniences they currently have.  Instead of a grid I think a storage method (hydrogen as a fuel) may be the long term answer.  It can be generated from a convenient source of power (Niagara Falls, rivers in Quebec, solar, wind, nuclear, etc.) and can be used locally and without pollution (produces water as a waste).  Of course it blows up if you're not careful or lucky.  But so does gasoline and methane.
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Telecaster

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2016, 04:36:39 pm »

If my next abode is a house—rather than, more likely, a condo or apartment—it'll get solar panels installed on the roof. Depending on the panel & battery tech available then this could cover much of my power needs. I think this is a smarter way of employing the big fusion reactor in the sky than building large arrays of panels on arid/unused land and then beaming the electrojuice elsewhere. Also, the more distributed/decentralized your power supplies are the less catastrophic an attack on "the grid" or huge solar flare or meteorite strike will be.

-Dave-
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GrahamBy

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2016, 04:44:28 pm »

Domestic solar is heavily incentivized in France, the electricity company buys back your excess at a quite generous rate. That makes good sense: most of the time the sun is up, I'm not home, but that's when there is the heaviest industrial load. Solar cells on roofs have become very common.
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N80

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Re: Free Lunches
« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2016, 05:46:51 pm »

I don't think it matters what we do in North America and Western Europe from a save-the-planet standpoint. China and India are in their ascension and are not going to be slowed down by such concerns. And there is nothing we westerners can do about it.

That's my big picture thought. Now my little picture thought:

Build more nukes. Make car batteries standard and interchangeable. Nukes make the electricity. Gas stations turn into battery stations. Pull in, remove old battery, insert new battery, off you go. No waiting around to charge up.
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George

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