John, wouldn't the magic number more likely be 365 members ...to correspopnd with days of the year? ...and don't forget that not all members complete the birthday date in the optional personal information fields when registering.
Julie
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You assume that, with 365 members, each person would have a unique birthdate. We'd need to see a probability distribution for birthdates in order to calculate the chances that a given date would have no members celebrating/rueing the passage of another year.
Must be a slow photographic day/week if I've actually written the above!! (obligatory smiley)
Mike (Really Bored) Sebastian