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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 293742 times)

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #680 on: October 25, 2016, 02:44:53 pm »

Scotland is not bound to remain in GB.

I was very anti Scottish Independence prior to the Brexit fiasco, and fiasco it is regardless of the blind bleatings to the contrary. Living in Europe and not the UK, I have a bit more clear an idea than most who do not have that experience. It is no ideal situation, but almost anything is preferable to isolation from one's best market. Anybody with any business experience knows that. And business is the key to all relationships between countries.

But, back to Scotland. As against Scottish Independence as I was, and as were most of the people I have met, minds change when the population numbers cause reckless economic harm, which is what Brexit has done. You'd be surprised how many former UK fans have changed opinion. Yes, the economic difficulties for an Indy Scotland remain, but then they have just got worse under the present system, too. Perhaps it's now time for an even greater change?

I'm honestly surprised at those who still contend that leaving Europe has been a good thing. How anyone can doubt the vital importance of interdependency in commerce just amazes me. And make no mistake: success and survival in this world is all about commerce. Yet, in the Brexit fiasco, it was all about migrants and fears of foreigners, including other Europeans, the very people to whose lands we go, to enjoy living their lifestyle, for the best, annual two weeks in our lives!

Rob, of course Scotland isn't "bound" to remain part of the UK; but it will. It has no viable economy: that was true even before the oil price fell so dramatically. It can't live on whisky, haggis and tartan. It receives massive subsidy from the rest of the UK (that is, from England and in particular from London). If it left, it would need to apply to join the EU, adopting the poisoned chalice that is the euro; and it's not likely that countries such as Spain, with its own secessionist difficulties, would welcome a breakaway state. I wasn't suggesting that it couldn't leave, merely expressing a very firm belief that it simply won't.

Of course commerce is vital. That's why our leaving won't prevent deals being struck. We aren't turning in on ourselves: we're expanding our horizons, free to make deals that can't be scuppered by a Wallonian vote. There will be difficulties, but I foresee opportunities as well. And anyone who imagines that all Leavers were motivated by xenophobia is deluding himself.

Jeremy
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Rob C

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #681 on: October 25, 2016, 04:52:36 pm »

Rob, of course Scotland isn't "bound" to remain part of the UK; but it will. It has no viable economy: that was true even before the oil price fell so dramatically. It can't live on whisky, haggis and tartan. It receives massive subsidy from the rest of the UK (that is, from England and in particular from London). If it left, it would need to apply to join the EU, adopting the poisoned chalice that is the euro; and it's not likely that countries such as Spain, with its own secessionist difficulties, would welcome a breakaway state. I wasn't suggesting that it couldn't leave, merely expressing a very firm belief that it simply won't.

Of course commerce is vital. That's why our leaving won't prevent deals being struck. We aren't turning in on ourselves: we're expanding our horizons, free to make deals that can't be scuppered by a Wallonian vote. There will be difficulties, but I foresee opportunities as well. And anyone who imagines that all Leavers were motivated by xenophobia is deluding himself.

Jeremy

Perhaps, but what did Ireland have? It's doing okay, and I don't think Scotland would fail to see why. Don't forget: many of the top business people in London are Scots, and that's been the case for decades. Good education in Scotland, if you can buy it, is second to none. A brand new country could prove an very exciting proposition to those same brains, even if not something all would welcome in preference to the way things were pre-Brexit.

No, it would not be obliged to adopt the euro, GB didn't... The groat sounds kinda romantic, historical, even; we could always purloin it - no existing copyright, I guess...

I can't see that turning our backs on our best customers is ever expanding our horizons. The Wallonians are resisting the pressures of big business from abroad; that sounds good to me. I believe that the US chemical industry wouldn't have had a great deal of difficulty stuffing Britain full of GM food years ago without European muscle to prevent it. Many Brits eat badly enough already.

Britich car manufacturing depends on German, US, Indian, Japanese and other foreign investment. Even 'sports car' exotica is foreign-owned. Making it more difficult to sell to the larger European market raises all sorts of alternative options, including manufacturing it all at home again, or relocating within greater Europe, if prices are bound to rise due to tarrifs loaded on the UK. We don't make a lot else, and our largest export, financial services, is now going to be up for grabs, as the banks well know. Watch the migration that's going to take place; they did warn us and they know their business, but it was all bullshitted as capitalist propaganda and lies. If the bankers and stockbrokers didn't think that the dangers were real, there wouldn't have been any need to defend the status quo just smashed.

How I wish I were mistaken, but I feel that I am not.

Rob
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 04:56:14 pm by Rob C »
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ErikKaffehr

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #682 on: October 26, 2016, 12:30:37 am »

Hi,

Much will depend on the negotiations.

The great stumbling block is in all probability the question of free movement. Presently Norway and Switzerland have different solutions with the EU but in both cases free movement is granted and both countries need to apply all or relevant parts of EU-law, without any formal influence on EU-decision making.

A solution like Norway's or Switzerland's is not what 'brexit' proponents have promised and EU will never give up that issue, as it is one of the EU-s core values. That said, free movement may need some regulation.

Best regards
Erik
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Erik Kaffehr
 

stamper

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #683 on: October 26, 2016, 03:40:57 am »

Rob, of course Scotland isn't "bound" to remain part of the UK; but it will. It has no viable economy: that was true even before the oil price fell so dramatically. It can't live on whisky, haggis and tartan. It receives massive subsidy from the rest of the UK (that is, from England and in particular from London). If it left, it would need to apply to join the EU, adopting the poisoned chalice that is the euro; and it's not likely that countries such as Spain, with its own secessionist difficulties, would welcome a breakaway state. I wasn't suggesting that it couldn't leave, merely expressing a very firm belief that it simply won't.

Of course commerce is vital. That's why our leaving won't prevent deals being struck. We aren't turning in on ourselves: we're expanding our horizons, free to make deals that can't be scuppered by a Wallonian vote. There will be difficulties, but I foresee opportunities as well. And anyone who imagines that all Leavers were motivated by xenophobia is deluding himself.

Jeremy


Jeremy that is patronizing drivel. You are supposedly an educated man. If Scotland has no viable economy then why does England want to hold on to Scotland???

Nick Walker

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #684 on: October 26, 2016, 04:17:34 am »


Good education in Scotland, if you can buy it, is second to none.

Rob

My wife was a teacher for many years so I am aware of the difficulties which are often created by interfering Gov's - I note that standards in Scotland, whilst still very good, have dropped in recent years, so maybe not so second to none -

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/falling-literacy-scottish-schools

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/snp-under-pressure-over-appalling-drop-in-scottish-school-numera/
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 04:28:48 am by N Walker »
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Rob C

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #685 on: October 26, 2016, 05:08:41 am »

My wife was a teacher for many years so I am aware of the diffcluties which are often ceated by interfeering Gov's - I note that standards in Scotland, whilst still very good, have dropped in recent years, so maybe not so second to none -

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/falling-literacy-scottish-schools

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/snp-under-pressure-over-appalling-drop-in-scottish-school-numera/



Yes, it's not a bright picture, but I did write: "if you can buy it," and that's sometimes key.

My daughter is a teacher (state, secondary school) and teaches kids right up to leaving school for university. The problem is that the kids have to cope with a set of problems removed from the classroom, the greatest one being home support for ambitious levels of education. When parents themselves lack good education, there is little incentive for the kids, either from themselves or their parents. Teachers have to spend a vast amount of time at home still working on their professional duties; the job never ends with the school bell. Do all kids and their parents apply themselves as much? No, they do not, and to make it worse, parents expect teachers to carry the can for their own neglect of their brood. I remember when my own two were at school - their mother spent ages helping them understand maths and science; even then, the difference between the two children was remarkable, putting all those crazy notions of equality where they belong: in the bin. It is not all about equal opportunity; it is as much about aptitude, which is a terrible, myth-busting non-PC thing to write, but the truth nonetheless. You see it all around you, but must deny it in order to conform and not make anyone aware of being an asshole less capable.

As I've mentioned before, the best pupils often seem to come from outwith British origins, because the parents bring with them a culture of work, no expectations of state-supplied freebies, and the understanding that you are responsible for your own future. The irony of their situation is that, thought they come with an admirable attitude, they lack the advantage of the native tongue, and this will always hold them back somewhat until/unless they return to their own lands and find themselves on another plateau where they can shine.

On yet another level, the private school one, it now appears that a lot of nouveau riche parents simply dump their kids in those institutions and hope to be able to wash their hands of them so as not to let them get in the way of their own lives. And it can work to the same bad effect as some poorer kids suffer, except that in the case of the rich, the kids can feel they have no need to work because they will be okay regardless. And this does not follow anymore, where fortunes can be as easily lost as they might have been made. A huge problem is making people realise that a good education is something for them to enjoy for the rest of their lives, and not only about getting financial reward.

I feel so lucky to be able to consider my last three or so years at school as having been wonderful in so many ways. The earlier ones were, generally, hell, where I learned one great lesson: survival within a hostile environment. After that, the Internet is relative peace!

Rob

Nick Walker

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #686 on: October 26, 2016, 07:17:51 am »



When parents themselves lack good education, there is little incentive for the kids, either from themselves or their parents.


Rob

A valid point. I am sure you are aware that one of the reasons why Finland's education system is so successful is becuase many of the parents are very well educated - apparently Finland changed thier education system to a new model approx 40 years ago. Dawn (wife) always said it was evident which parents took the time to educate their children in comparison to those who expected education to only function inside the school gates.

This is an interesting read https://fillingmymap.com/2015/04/15/11-ways-finlands-education-system-shows-us-that-less-is-more/ - teacher who visited Finland, comment from Finish mother backs-up her observations.

Less is more. What's interesting is there is little or no testing, less subjects (subjetcs covered, more in depth), more play time and less school hours, diametrically opposite to the madness of the English education system driven by politicians.

Also - https://fillingmymap.com/2015/06/08/the-three-real-reasons-for-finlands-high-pisa-scores/

In any given week in Finland I will meet or talk to more people who have a degree in physics than I have met in my ENTIRE life in the United States. I swear- everywhere I go in Finland I find someone who studied physics or is currently getting their PHD in the impressive and very allusive field.   It is crazy to me- Physics is not something that is very common in the U.S.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 01:41:34 pm by N Walker »
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #687 on: October 27, 2016, 03:36:09 am »

Jeremy that is patronizing drivel. You are supposedly an educated man. If Scotland has no viable economy then why does England want to hold on to Scotland???

It's not patronising, Robert. It may or may not be inaccurate (ie drivel), but it's an observation which you haven't done anything to dispute. As to the latter question, I think the answer is sentiment.

Jeremy
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #688 on: October 27, 2016, 03:49:57 am »

Interesting description of the English JR proceedings here.

Jeremy
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stamper

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #689 on: October 27, 2016, 03:57:10 am »

It's not patronising, Robert. It may or may not be inaccurate (ie drivel), but it's an observation which you haven't done anything to dispute. As to the latter question, I think the answer is sentiment.

Jeremy

Stating that the Scottish economy isn't viable and it wasn't ever viable is absurd. The UK economy is a lot less viable than the Scottish economy which is in danger of going under when the UK economy inevitably crashes. There is only £14 billion of debt in the Scotland economy  Alas you haven't stated why England wants to hold on to Scotland whilst wanting a divorce from Europe.

edited an error
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 01:34:40 pm by stamper »
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Nick Walker

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #690 on: October 27, 2016, 05:04:10 am »

IMHO there are far more important matters for our species to be concerned about than Brexit, a mere detail in comparison to our World wildlife which has apparently fallen by 58% in 40 years -  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37775622

In 1950, around the time Sir David Attenborough began his broadcasting career, there were 2.53 billion people in the world. Sixty-three years later and the latest estimate of world population is 7.16 billion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24303537




Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #691 on: October 27, 2016, 05:20:49 am »

IMHO there are far more important matters for our species to be concerned about than Brexit ...

Indeed, there may be, but this is not the thread to discuss them in.
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stamper

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #692 on: October 27, 2016, 05:22:25 am »

IMHO there are far more important matters for our species to be concerned about than Brexit, a mere detail in comparison to our World wildlife which has apparently fallen by 58% in 40 years -  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37775622

In 1950, around the time Sir David Attenborough began his broadcasting career, there were 2.53 billion people in the world. Sixty-three years later and the latest estimate of world population is 7.16 billion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24303537






Everyday living, paying bills,working etc etc is far more important. Do you wish that the world goes back to 2.53 billion?

Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #693 on: October 27, 2016, 05:30:24 am »

We aren't turning in on ourselves: we're expanding our horizons, free to make deals that can't be scuppered by a Wallonian vote. There will be difficulties, but I foresee opportunities as well.

Jeremy – this is  pure spin, verging on propaganda.

The Wallonian vote is a hiccup, not a terminal end. The Canadian trade agreement will be finalised, as will the TTIP but, as the UK is about to find out, trade agreements take time.

In the meantime, a collapse in corporation tax receipts looks to increase the budget deficit by over £10billion, leaving the EU customs union will cost another £25billion a year, and a think tank has projected a black hole of over £84 billion following the Brexit vote. And these figures were before the latest collapse in sterling.  Even an internal Treasury briefing document, mistakenly published on the Government's web site, has warned  that there was a “severe worsening in the public finances”.

And if you think the plummeting pound presents 'opportunities', look no further than Zimbabwe or Venezuela. 
Xenophobia ? In the first, of hopefully more wake-up calls to come: 

Quote
< May’s student deportation programme in tatters as legal appeal falls apart >

A long-running programme to deport foreign students from the UK on the basis of hearsay evidence was in ruins today, after the appeal court ruled against the Home Office.

The decision to quietly shelve the legal challenge is a damning moment for Theresa May, who presided over the department when it used flimsy evidence to threaten tens of thousands of foreign students with detention and deportation.

Both Australia and japan have made their 'not-so-favourable' to the UK positions clear, I'm curious to know where, in your opinion, our great trading opportunities might lie.  We now have a prime minister and foreign secretary whose political persuasions are, judging by recent revelations in the press, akin to a weather vane, their commitment seemingly governed by personal ambition – I, for one, thank God that we're still a parliamentary democracy and hopefully the whole shebang will be put before parliament and, in all likelihood, the electorate in the next general election.

But, yes, I do agree 'we will muddle through', muddle being the operative word.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 05:43:57 am by Manoli »
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Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #694 on: October 27, 2016, 05:41:26 am »

" Just to recap, for those who understandably find this confusing: Britain’s foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, campaigned for Brexit but was suspected of wobbling privately towards remain. The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, campaigned for remain but was suspected of wobbling privately towards leave. And our prime minister was presumably either faking it in front of the Goldman Sachs faithful, or is faking it now when she insists that hard Brexit will be a rip-roaring success, or is secretly in two minds about the most totemic issue of the day – but dammit, the British people ordered a burger, and that’s what they’ll get. And we wonder why people don’t trust politicians."

and from the ultra Brexit 'Telegraph'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/26/remainers-seem-to-think-its-a-scandal-that-theresa-may-listened/
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 05:54:04 am by Manoli »
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Nick Walker

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #695 on: October 27, 2016, 06:36:43 am »

Everyday living, paying bills,working etc etc is far more important. Do you wish that the world goes back to 2.53 billion?

Are you happy with 7.16 billion and counting and the destruction we cause?

stamper

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #696 on: October 27, 2016, 06:43:33 am »

Are you happy with 7.16 billion and counting and the destruction we cause?

How do you reduce that amount? Contraception? Euthanasia? Who decides who lives and dies?

Nick Walker

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #697 on: October 27, 2016, 07:07:59 am »

How do you reduce that amount? Contraception? Euthanasia? Who decides who lives and dies?

Maybe we could make a small start by only replacing ourselves. What's wrong with contraception? (I despise religion).


Alan Klein

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #698 on: October 27, 2016, 07:52:15 am »

Britain had a .5% increase in their GDP since the vote to leave the EU three months ago.  That's a positive sign.GDP

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #699 on: October 27, 2016, 07:55:40 am »

... Do you wish that the world goes back to 2.53 billion?

Yes.
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