Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: Kina forecast  (Read 9679 times)

BernardLanguillier

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 13983
    • http://www.flickr.com/photos/bernardlanguillier/sets/
Kina forecast
« on: June 10, 2016, 04:53:42 am »

Hi team,

How about a little crystal balling about what's going to be presented at the Kina? Here is my take:

APS-C and smaller
- Sony: a5300 (a6300 specs in a5100 packaging), RX100Mk5
- Fuji X-T2 (24mp, better EVF)
- Olympus EM-1 successor
- Nikon: D3500 (first Nikon DSLR with EVF in packaging similar to D3300),

35mm
- Canon: 5DMkIV (30~MP replacement of 5DMKIII, 1Dx II AF, 4K video at 60p), 85mm f1.2 III with Otus like performance, 600mm f4 DO, 1000mm f5.6 DO
- Sony: a9r (72mp sensor, weather sealing, dual memory card, 4K video at 60p)
- Nikon: D900 (same sensor as the a9r, D5 AF, 4k video at 30p), 70-200mm f2.8III, 200mm f2 E FL, 500mm f5.6 PF

MF
- Phasone: XF2 with optional EVF and better damped mirror mechanism (attractive upgrade program for XF existind users)
- Hassy: digital XPan
- Pentax: 645X with the Sony 100mp sensor, pixel shift technology

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 04:59:09 am by BernardLanguillier »
Logged

eronald

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6642
    • My gallery on Instagram
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2016, 06:49:43 am »

Nikon may be showing a mirroless camera with a curved Sony sensor.
Olympus OM1 may be really nice. At the very least it should bring 5 axis stabilisation,  full 4K video and handheld multishot. 
Sony A9 may also have some unexpected features, maybe a Sony-branded full-raw video recording option with external screen; at the very least I would expect Sony to offer an internal 120fps 4K burst mode that would make the A9 into an incredible sports camera.
Panasonic will probably be showing the GH5, which will add stabilisation, maybe handheld multishot.
Pentax will have some interesting successor to the 645Z, maybe, but not the 100MP sensor.
As for an upgrade to the XF - how can something so perfect be improved?  :)


On balance, I think Sony is the company to watch, as it's clear that they still have a bunch of innovations which will find their way into most other cameras on the market via their sensor SDK. I wonder whether at some point they will officially add z-axis to the 5-axis stabiliser module.

Sony may still decide to market a luxury MF fixed-lens compact, now that on-sensor focus allows them to solve the focus issues which plagued the RX1.

Edmund

Hi team,

How about a little crystal balling about what's going to be presented at the Kina? Here is my take:

APS-C and smaller
- Sony: a5300 (a6300 specs in a5100 packaging), RX100Mk5
- Fuji X-T2 (24mp, better EVF)
- Olympus EM-1 successor
- Nikon: D3500 (first Nikon DSLR with EVF in packaging similar to D3300),

35mm
- Canon: 5DMkIV (30~MP replacement of 5DMKIII, 1Dx II AF, 4K video at 60p), 85mm f1.2 III with Otus like performance, 600mm f4 DO, 1000mm f5.6 DO
- Sony: a9r (72mp sensor, weather sealing, dual memory card, 4K video at 60p)
- Nikon: D900 (same sensor as the a9r, D5 AF, 4k video at 30p), 70-200mm f2.8III, 200mm f2 E FL, 500mm f5.6 PF

MF
- Phasone: XF2 with optional EVF and better damped mirror mechanism (attractive upgrade program for XF existind users)
- Hassy: digital XPan
- Pentax: 645X with the Sony 100mp sensor, pixel shift technology

Cheers,
Bernard
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 06:52:58 am by eronald »
Logged
If you appreciate my blog posts help me by following on https://instagram.com/edmundronald

Paul2660

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4066
    • Photos of Arkansas
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2016, 07:21:55 am »

Hi team,

How about a little crystal balling about what's going to be presented at the Kina? Here is my take:

APS-C and smaller
- Sony: a5300 (a6300 specs in a5100 packaging), RX100Mk5
- Fuji X-T2 (24mp, better EVF)
- Olympus EM-1 successor
- Nikon: D3500 (first Nikon DSLR with EVF in packaging similar to D3300),

35mm
- Canon: 5DMkIV (30~MP replacement of 5DMKIII, 1Dx II AF, 4K video at 60p), 85mm f1.2 III with Otus like performance, 600mm f4 DO, 1000mm f5.6 DO
- Sony: a9r (72mp sensor, weather sealing, dual memory card, 4K video at 60p)
- Nikon: D900 (same sensor as the a9r, D5 AF, 4k video at 30p), 70-200mm f2.8III, 200mm f2 E FL, 500mm f5.6 PF

MF
- Phasone: XF2 with optional EVF and better damped mirror mechanism (attractive upgrade program for XF existind users)
- Hassy: digital XPan
- Pentax: 645X with the Sony 100mp sensor, pixel shift technology

Cheers,
Bernard

Without a total rework, the mirror/shutter will be the same, but you might see a drop in EVF? as the finder has a lot of pins and HDMI is already present.  May have to run a cable external, but EVF, with the capabilities of a Sony or Fuji 35mm camera, that would be excellent. (personally don't feel that is coming for a while even kina).  Can't see a "new" body with shutter/mirrorless or what not until a another year. 

As for the mirror slap, it's a big mirror, curious to see if the new Hasselblad body has a more damped setup?  For countering the vibration, IMO Phase did a very good job with the vibration reduction option. 

Paul C
Logged
Paul Caldwell
Little Rock, Arkansas U.S.
www.photosofarkansas.com

JV

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1013
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2016, 07:27:30 am »

I would also expect the successor of the Leica M240 to be announced.  Next iteration of the SL/Q sensor, hybrid RF/EVF, 30 or 36MP.

Hasselblad's take on the Leica SL would be interesting as well but I believe we will need to wait a few more years for that.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 07:48:56 am by JV »
Logged

Chairman Bill

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3352
    • flickr page
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2016, 07:37:07 am »

 A MF-sized sensor, in a X100 style body, with a fixed lens. Go on Fujifilm, you know you want to.

JV

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1013
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2016, 07:54:41 am »

A MF-sized sensor, in a X100 style body, with a fixed lens. Go on Fujifilm, you know you want to.

Fuji is dead.  Even Ken Rockwell doesn't like them anymore...:
http://kenrockwell.com/fuji/x-pro2.htm

 ;)
Logged

Paul2660

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4066
    • Photos of Arkansas
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2016, 08:11:26 am »

Fuji is dead.  Even Ken Rockwell doesn't like them anymore...:
http://kenrockwell.com/fuji/x-pro2.htm

 ;)

Ken knows best.......

Paul C
Logged
Paul Caldwell
Little Rock, Arkansas U.S.
www.photosofarkansas.com

Chairman Bill

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3352
    • flickr page
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2016, 08:34:36 am »

Both reported for mentioning he who shall not be named

dwswager

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1375
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2016, 08:47:47 am »

Hi team,

How about a little crystal balling about what's going to be presented at the Kina? Here is my take:

35mm
- Canon: 5DMkIV (30~MP replacement of 5DMKIII, 1Dx II AF, 4K video at 60p), 85mm f1.2 III with Otus like performance, 600mm f4 DO, 1000mm f5.6 DO
- Sony: a9r (72mp sensor, weather sealing, dual memory card, 4K video at 60p)
- Nikon: D900 (same sensor as the a9r, D5 AF, 4k video at 30p), 70-200mm f2.8III, 200mm f2 E FL, 500mm f5.6 PF


As a happy D810 owner, I wouldn't want a 72MP D900...Let me revise that, I would have to have that in addition to the D810.  At 72MP it takes it from being a great general purpose camera to definitively targeted.  I hope Nikon is smart enough to keep the 36MP range.  It is large enough to be large while small enough not to be too large with reasonable 2$MP 1.2x crop and 15MP DX crop.  72MP is too large to do that and 24MP too small.
Logged

eronald

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6642
    • My gallery on Instagram
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2016, 08:55:29 am »

Both reported for mentioning he who shall not be named

The man's an idiot. Which is why he writes such superb Idiot Guides. I bough Thom's book for my D3x, useless, but with KR's guide I finally figured out how to set up the AF - something which my PhD had not prepared me for. And it was *free*.

Ken's site is one of the best resources on the web. For idiots, of course :)

Edmund
Logged
If you appreciate my blog posts help me by following on https://instagram.com/edmundronald

shadowblade

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2839
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2016, 11:16:04 am »

As a happy D810 owner, I wouldn't want a 72MP D900...Let me revise that, I would have to have that in addition to the D810.  At 72MP it takes it from being a great general purpose camera to definitively targeted.  I hope Nikon is smart enough to keep the 36MP range.  It is large enough to be large while small enough not to be too large with reasonable 2$MP 1.2x crop and 15MP DX crop.  72MP is too large to do that and 24MP too small.

The D810, for its time, was also definitely targeted at resolution.

The new 36MP-range, general-purpose camera will be the replacement to the D750. The D810-replacement will be 50MP-plus, although it will likely have a mRAW/sRAW mode for 36MP/18MP output too.
Logged

shadowblade

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2839
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2016, 11:17:46 am »

For the record, I'm expecting:

Canon: 5D4
Nikon: D900. Possibly an updated 14-24 or 200-400.
Sony: A9r.
HP: Update to Z3200
Logged

Rob C

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 24074
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2016, 11:37:12 am »

The man's an idiot. Which is why he writes such superb Idiot Guides. I bough Thom's book for my D3x, useless, but with KR's guide I finally figured out how to set up the AF - something which my PhD had not prepared me for. And it was *free*.

Ken's site is one of the best resources on the web. For idiots, of course :)

Edmund


I refuse to admit it, of course, but that ¡s where I figured out what with happening with both my D200 and D700 on a couple of occasions. I like explanations that don't assume you already know everything. If I knew everything already then why would I have problems?

;-)

Rob C

John Koerner

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 866
  • "Fortune favors the bold." Virgil
    • John Koerner Photography
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2016, 11:42:24 am »

As a happy D810 owner, I wouldn't want a 72MP D900...Let me revise that, I would have to have that in addition to the D810.  At 72MP it takes it from being a great general purpose camera to definitively targeted.  I hope Nikon is smart enough to keep the 36MP range.  It is large enough to be large while small enough not to be too large with reasonable 2$MP 1.2x crop and 15MP DX crop.  72MP is too large to do that and 24MP too small.


Disagree.

I think it is pretty clear that the D500 is the "general" camera, while the D5 is a sports specialists' camera, and the D800/900 is the high-res specialists' camera.

The D800 was class-leading in its day (with the D810 still being so, in many ways), so if the D900 becomes "average" it would be a total disappointment to everyone (but you, apparently).

I think it's pretty clear, based on the class-leading D5 and D500, that Nikon will not disappoint, so I expect the D900 to be a super-camera.

I expect the either the D900 or Sony A9r (or both) to be class-leading. I expect the D900 to have better AF/wildlife capabilities, with the Sony having better 4K video.
Logged

BJL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6600
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2016, 12:33:14 pm »

My wishes, posing as predictions:

- An Olympus OM-D EM-1 Mk II.  Or any high end MFT body that provides accurate and fast AF with my legacy Four Thirds SLR lenses and state-of-the-art IBIS.

- Options from Canon, Nikon and various medium format makers that allow one to combine the best features of their SLR bodies and lenses with a good EVF.  One option would be high spec. mirrorless bodies using the same sensor formats as existing SLRs and on-sensor PDAF, to allow full lens backward compatibility via adaptors. However, I would also be interested in DSLR bodies that accept an accessory EVF.  Above a certain level, it is often the lenses that account for most of the bulk of an SLR kit, so going mirrorless does not offer much reduction in system size and weight: then adding an EVF option could be more important than removing the OVF.

- A Pentax digital 645 with a sensor that is actually on close to true 645 format, like the new Sony 100MP one.


On the other hand I am skeptical about most of the above DMF predictions:

- It is far too early for Phase One to update the XF.

- A camera that ties a still very expensive larger-than-35mm-format sensor permanently to a single lens is an impractical fantasy.  With fixed lens film-based medium format rangefinder cameras, there was a substantial bulk advantage over SLRs in the same format by avoiding the TTL OVF with its huge, heavy, noisy, sluggish mirror and pentaprism and allowing more compact wide-angle lens designs, but there is now the alternative possibility of a medium format "EVF" camera with interchangeable leaf-shutter lenses and allowing equal lens design flexibility.

- Panoramic format "array" sensors for cameras like the Fujifilm/Hasselblad Xpan would be impractically expensive low-volume specialty items (whereas the Xpan used the same 135 format "single use sensors" as millions of other cameras), so I expect that the solution will continue to be either stitching or variations on "sweeping", in the style of a scanning back or the iPhone panorama mode.  For sweeping, there are already those scanning cameras using linear sensors, and it would be interesting to see a tripod-mounted camera sweeping rig for use with a normal camera, but hand-held sweeping with software fixes can already do fairly well!
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 12:39:03 pm by BJL »
Logged

John Koerner

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 866
  • "Fortune favors the bold." Virgil
    • John Koerner Photography
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2016, 12:38:24 pm »

One thing nobody is mentioning, which is a surprise, is the launch of Nikon's new Premium DL-Series Point-N-Shoots.

People like the compact nature of mirrorless, but these Premium P&S's are even more compact than mirrorless and (by the looks of them) very high-quality also.

DL Series
I don't expect the 3rd camera to be technically-great, but I believe the first one in particular is going to be a great "convenience" camera, while still retaining high-quality.

In the past, I had used the Canon G15 as a compact, which was a great lil' pocket camera for me, and which I was still using up until a fumble last month >:(

I have the DL 18-50 on pre-order, and so right now I am using a D810 and two heavy Ai-S lenses (15mm f/3.5 and 50mm f/1.2) for standard accident documentation, where my simple G15 used to be all I needed. It is a pain in the @$$ to lug around a D810 and 2 lenses for my general, non-surveillance, work-related purposes ... so I can't wait to go to a compact again for this capacity.

Nikon says these DL compacts have premium Nikkor ED glass, so I expect this Nikon 18-50 DL camera to have far superior performance than the Canon G-series, and almost-DSLR-like performance for my work-related purposes (preserving accident scenes, photographing individuals, injuries, etc.).

The 18-50 mm in particular seems very well-suited as a convenient travel camera, IMO, being wide-enough to capture scenes (18mm), and yet coming-in close enough (50mm) to capture individual portraits .. and by its price point, and appearance, it looks to be of very high-quality also, having a 20.8mp sensor and shooting 4K as well.

Jack
Logged

JV

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1013
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2016, 12:55:19 pm »

I'd prefer an accessory EVF of the same quality as the SL.

I expect a hybrid VF but an accessory could very well still be an option if size (which appears to be an issue quite a few people) is too big of a design consideration.

30 or 36 MP, possibly, but 24 is plenty for my applications.

A lot of Leica shooters feel that way I believe.

That being said all APS-C cameras are 24MP now, so most likely the next generation of T/X cameras as well, so it would be awkward if the number of MP did not increase for the M.

Another option would be the same number of MP but a slightly lower price perhaps, more like the M262...

And, wouldn't it be refreshing if the camera and accessories were available off shelf on announcement?

It would... but it is not going to happen...  :)

The whole circus with people being on multiple waiting lists is not a particularly pleasant experience...
Logged

Hulyss

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 734
    • H.Bowman
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2016, 01:19:18 pm »

I just want an up to date Nikon 12Mp DSLR.
Logged
Kind Regards -  Hulyss Bowman | hulyssbowman.com |

Petrus

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 952
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2016, 02:06:03 pm »

That being said all APS-C cameras are 24MP now,

Samsung NX1 ?????
Logged

JV

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1013
Re: Kina forecast
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2016, 02:44:20 pm »

Samsung NX1 ?????

Or slighty more, I stand corrected... The Samsung NX1 has been discontinued though AFAIK, at least in the US...
Logged
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up