1/3 of Americans Would Support a Military Coup

[BJL]

Somehow this part of The Guardian article seems overlooked in this debate (emphasis mine):

Bart and I have the same skepticism about online polls . . . But why [that] should stop anyone from refighting WWII if they want to?!

[Jeremy Roussak]

Not long ago I read an article about the declining accuracy of polls, but I can't lay my hand on it at the moment.

Look at any of the numerous articles in the British press following the ludicrously inaccurate predictions of the result of our last general election (in May). There was quite a lot of soul-searching from the pollsters themselves, too.

Jeremy

[Rob C]

Look at any of the numerous articles in the British press following the ludicrously inaccurate predictions of the result of our last general election (in May). There was quite a lot of soul-searching from the pollsters themselves, too.

Jeremy

Jeremy, it's just another quack industry, but hey, it makes money! Some say that's a charge that could also be levelled at photography, but not so sure about the latter's financial viability anymore...

;-)

Rob C

[Justinr]

Bart and I have the same skepticism about online polls . . . But why should stop anyone from refighting WWII if they want to?!

That too is an industry in the UK. 

[RSL]

Look at any of the numerous articles in the British press following the ludicrously inaccurate predictions of the result of our last general election (in May). There was quite a lot of soul-searching from the pollsters themselves, too.

Jeremy

Right, Jeremy. I think there was a time in my own lifetime when people took polls seriously and were willing to be polled. But in the past couple decades the polls I've been willing to stay with long enough to find what kind of questions are being asked have obviously been biased. At some point even stupid people see what's going on and refuse to participate. I suspect the reason the polls have gotten so unreliable is that most people opt out of them and the residue is. . . well, let's say, "select."

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

I've done numerous questionnaires in my life, never a telephone poll though. Employment questionnaires, personality tests, online polls, etc. Quite often you would find that the way the question is phrased, and even more importantly, the multiple-choice answers are phrased, not only leaves a lot to be desired, but makes you want to tear your hair out. Either the question is nudging you in a certain direction, or none of the offered answers is anywhere near what you really think on the subject.

[Justinr]

I've done numerous questionnaires in my life, never a telephone poll though. Employment questionnaires, personality tests, online polls, etc. Quite often you would find that the way the question is phrased, and even more importantly, the multiple-choice answers are phrased, not only leaves a lot to be desired, but makes you want to tear your hair out. Either the question is nudging you in a certain direction, or none of the offered answers is anywhere near what you really think on the subject.

And then, here in Ireland anyway, the pollsters adjust the figures as to what they think the floating voters or undecided will actually do. This has led to the present incumbents seeming to hold on to a larger vote than could ever be imagined should you actually go out and talk to people. The dog on the street knows that the Labour party are toast come the next general election, for deserting all their principles and abandoning their promises at the first whiff of coalition power, yet they are still put at 10% in the polls! The opinion poll business is pretty well screwed up to be honest.