Hi,
In terms of sensor, I think the innovation will come from making better smartphone cameras, if from that new ideas in that area can be used for DSLR/mirrorless/medium format cameras they will do it. I base this assumption just looking at the prediction of what CMOS sensors are going to be used in the future:
http://i-micronews.com/images/Media/Imaging_/News_August_2015/Wafer_production_forecast2009-2020_by_application-CMOS-YoleDeveloppement.jpgSource:
http://i-micronews.com/news/imaging/5872-image-sensor-battle-of-the-giants-sony-invests-4b-what-does-it-means-for-the-cis-industry.htmlAs you can see, even if cameras are selling less and less, image sensor industry it is increasing their sales in significant percents year by year.
We are already seeing this tendency, latest Sony sensor innovations came from their sensors for smartphones. Things like Back Side Illuminated sensors, for example... This is basically an economic decision, it is cheaper to try innovative things if the sensors are smaller, usually, at the beginning, when trying a new idea in the sensor, the smaller the sensor, the higher the probability to get sensors without a defect from the same wafer.
Saying that, what will I expect for the future? I'm seeing some things:
- Better AF, we are already seeing this, cameras like de Sony A7r II has like 399 (or 299... too lazy to look for the specs now) AF points in the same sensor. I expect in the future to have all pixels of a sensor being phase detection AF points, right now the size it is limiting because they lose light for each pixel that it is doing AF, but I read about some patents that solve this problem:
http://thenewcamera.com/sony-multilayer-hybrid-af-sensor-patent/ (Canon dual-pixel technology it is also going in this direction, but I think Canon reasons for developing this technology were more related to their high-end video cameras than smartphone sensors).
- Better DR, say goodbye to HDR or grads.
- Foveon type sensors will be ideal for better color... but I think for this we will have to wait a long time, even if I see some patent from time to time for Sony or Canon, I don't see them really interested to push this too much... (very personal opinion here).
- If I said before goodbye to grads, maybe we also say goodbye to polarizers too, Olympus just patented a sensor that has something similar to a polarizer in the sensor, it records the polarization of the light, them in post you can apply as much as you want (if I understood it correctly):
http://www.diyphotography.net/30922/- RAW video. Each generation the cameras get better and better fps, in the next ten years I expect the technology will reach the point that any camera can record easily more than 30 fps in RAW....
Off course, I may be wrong in all points... and as other people commented, I also expect bigger improvements in the software side of things.
Regards,
David