The times, they are a changing

[bob mccarthy]

The line up in camera manufactures over the next few years is getting interesting. Already we're seeing a flattening of pixel count. Prices are coming down. I wonder what the camera industry will look like in two years.

Without getting into the "camera" wars (please) I've noticed a few issues that may impact our future hardware supply.

Canon and Toshiba have joined into a venture to reinvent the flat panel TV, neither Plasma nor LCD and claimed superiority to both. They are telling the financial community they will be investing 6 to 8 Billion $'s over the next few years on R&D, building factories and funding losses on production until the product becomes profitable. Well we know where all the loose dollars (yen) are going.

Sony is planning moves into DLSR's, but the Playstation III is way late and I hear way over budget. Add to that, the chief competitor is already on the market, they are very financially constrained. PSX is Sony today. Majority of profits have come from gaming at the detriment of their traditional hardware business. They are floundering.

By all measures Samsung is a very impressive company at present. They haven't made any bad mistakes lately and could be a hell of a competitor. They will be formidible in the next few years if they want to. I think it's Pentax they're working with.

Nikon, broad optics lines and pretty good manufacture of camera bodies. They are dependent on others on the chip side. This is their fundamental weakness. I'm guessing both Kodak and Fuji have there eye's on Nikon as a prize. I would bet Fuji as the Japanese like to keep it at home. Nikon has done deals with both in the past.

K-M, see Sony above.

Olympus, I don't have a clue. They are using the Kodak chip!

I don't see how the others can survive in the electronics/camera future.

Hasselblad will survive because of Fuji, but one would think Fuji has issues like Kodak in the transition from film.

I see in the WSJ, outside companies are eyeing the market, HP and others.

Should be interesting,

bob

[iordanov]

Olympus is well positioned in the medical imaging field. The photo imaging division of the company started a partnership with Panasonic and, who knows, in the future Olympus may switch to sensor supply from Matsushita Electric.


Regards,
Ivo

[jani]

Sony is planning moves into DLSR's, but the Playstation III is way late and I hear way over budget. Add to that, the chief competitor is already on the market, they are very financially constrained. PSX is Sony today. Majority of profits have come from gaming at the detriment of their traditional hardware business. They are floundering.

...

Nikon, broad optics lines and pretty good manufacture of camera bodies. They are dependent on others on the chip side. This is their fundamental weakness. I'm guessing both Kodak and Fuji have there eye's on Nikon as a prize. I would bet Fuji as the Japanese like to keep it at home. Nikon has done deals with both in the past.

K-M, see Sony above.

I think it's interesting that Sony has agreed to take over K-M production in some way or other.

But consider this thought experiment:

Sony makes the chips for Nikon. Perhaps a more ... strategic alliance is imminent.

I'm tempted to agree with what the CEO of Phase One said in the LLVJ interview; that there will be only two or three major actors in the DSLR market within a few years.

My bets are on:

 - Sony
 - Nikon
 - Canon

... with a possible merger between the first two, let's say within the next five years if it's going to happen at all.

I don't see how Olympus, Sigma, Pentax etc. expect to compete without some major changes, and those changes should've been announced at the first day of PMA, in my opinion.

Perhaps they'll survive as lens manufacturers for the others and digicam makers.

[benInMA]

The Flat TVs that Canon is working on are based on individual Cathode Ray guns for each pixel.

They are already built and working, they supposedly have them hung in the world headquarters lobby to show off to visitors according to some financial articles I read, all they have left to do is figure out how to produce them for the right price.   They are supposed to be a quantum leap better then current flat screen TV/Monitor technology.

I doubt this will effect their ability to produce cameras as they've already done the bulk of the engineering at the same time as their current camera push, and they've got plenty of other business units that are doing well.

Sony does seem to be a company having big issues, their management & financials are not as good as they've been in the past and they've extended themselves big time.