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Author Topic: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?  (Read 53646 times)

ButchM

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #120 on: May 30, 2015, 12:04:14 pm »


I know exactly why resources are being used to focus onto the mobile platform...that is where the future revenue will come from. I manage products for a living. This would be a no brainer decision.

I know it is never in good taste or a wise decision to engage in a discussion with a self-proclaimed anonymous expert on the internet ... but I think you are missing the mark on two major points.

1. Recent sales over the past year of DSLR (and other RAW capable cameras) are declining ... not growing.

2. PC sales (the integral unit for a Lr Mobile environ) have been in decline for much longer.

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I was describing a niche usage of LR and in reality the vast majority of it's users don't need that functionality so I suggested if your workflow relies on this missing functionality, maybe they should look at other products that might provide it.

Wouldn't this advice also hold true for those folks who would like to see more mobile features in Lr. Shouldn't they look elsewhere to fulfill their needs? Why must Adobe ignore their traditional customer base in order to court a potential new group of customers who have no history of customer loyalty? Why must it be a zero sum game, an all or nothing approach?

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I'm also making the point that LR is NOT just targeted at professionals, but rather at the hugely much larger amateur market that is expanding. If you were managing LR, where would you aim your sites, at a small niche market or the vastly huge consumer market.

If that is your assessment, you are basing it upon statistics from the distant past, not the recent facts or the projections of the near future. So I'll expand on my earlier points.

In the past year or more, Canon and Nikon (as well as the industry as a whole) have seen significant drop in unit sales of cameras capable of capturing and recording RAW format images. The number of new users, amateur or otherwise seems to have peaked or are actually starting to decline. We are quickly reaching a point of market saturation and maturation of mid and top tier cameras. The technical improvements are not as huge relegating previous models obsolete upon introduction of the latest and greatest.

If you are referring to the amateur jpeg shooting crowd, there are already a myriad of much more cost effective options already on the market. In fact several are free and don't require the burden of a PC to create Smart Previews to bounce off a server thousands of miles away just to get an image from your smartphone to your tablet.

Now, add to that equation that desktop and laptop sales have faltered for nearly a decade now. HP is holding steady while all the other top computer makers are showing declining units sales YOY except for Apple which has shown steady growth over the same period in unit sales of desktop and laptop models.

I fully admit I don't "manage products" ... I've just been a self employed business man in the photography field full time since 1975. I've learned a few things about the business world and where to seek out information on trends as well over the years. When it comes to Lightroom ... I'm just one of them there consumers you keep referring to and you like to point out my concerns are "niche" and the money in my pockets, after supporting Adobe for over 23 years, is of less importance to the bean counters in San Jose than that of potential new users? While I can relate to the aspirations of attracting new customers to the fold, turning your back on the tried and true loyal customers with decades of historical record of offering financial support to the cause is a recipe for failure for any business, larger or small.
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Hans Kruse

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #121 on: May 30, 2015, 12:11:53 pm »


In the past year or more, Canon and Nikon (as well as the industry as a whole) have seen significant drop in unit sales of cameras capable of capturing and recording RAW format images. The number of new users, amateur or otherwise seems to have peaked or are actually starting to decline. We are quickly reaching a point of market saturation and maturation of mid and top tier cameras. The technical improvements are not as huge relegating previous models obsolete upon introduction of the latest and greatest.


I think people are holding on to their cameras now much longer and at least this is what I'm seeing. I don't believe that the drop in sales of new cameras correlates that well with the number of users of Lightroom (and equivalent products).

ButchM

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #122 on: May 30, 2015, 12:16:25 pm »

I think people are holding on to their cameras now much longer and at least this is what I'm seeing. I don't believe that the drop in sales of new cameras correlates that well with the number of users of Lightroom (and equivalent products).

No, it has little to no impact on current number of users of Lightroom ... but it does directly correlate with the assertion of a "expanding amateur market" ...

The most recent market projections are not indicating continued growth in the advanced amateur RAW shooting sector.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #123 on: May 30, 2015, 12:33:54 pm »

No, it has little to no impact on current number of users of Lightroom ... but it does directly correlate with the assertion of a "expanding amateur market" ...

But that is also the segment with many alternatives, like Google's 'Auto Awesome' which automatically makes combinations, animations, movies,and improvements and variation of one's photos. Not necessarily an audience for Lightroom mobile.

Cheers,
Bart
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #124 on: May 30, 2015, 12:46:52 pm »

One way of assessing the continued utility of Lightroom is in terms of the final product, the use of the image. Yes, there will be a number who use it to generate prints, but I cannot imagine that they are growing as fast as those that generate ephemeral images to share over social media or directly with friends and family.

It is, however, interesting that Google has just decoupled Photos from its social media platform, presumably because the sharing pictures over social media space is fully occupied by Facebook and Flickr, Instagram, et al.  In Google's assessment there is a place for an online archiving and limited sharing service, perhaps sharing directly from whatever device you have with you. Apple would appear to have made a similar assessment.

Lightroom's is great for producing images for your own satisfaction, or for wedding photographers, for example, but, like the major DSLR makers, Adobe has not cracked making it easy to archive in the cloud, or share via the device that you have on you or selectively, never mind via social media.  Yes, you can sort of do it with Mobile, but it requires too much pre-planning and it is very slow.

If you never needed to print, would you use Lightroom, or would you use Snapseed and Google Photos?

Yes, if you need that last ounce of quality, Lightroom provides a good raw converter. But it's like "is having the sharpest lens the key determinant of picture quality?".  Answer is "no" because, although a certain basic level of sharpness is desirable, it is not sharpness that generates the emotional reaction to your image (unless you overdo it in post). But it is also not just image content that generates emotional reaction, it is also immediacy.  Lightroom has some way to go before it can help you there.
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chez

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #125 on: May 30, 2015, 01:18:00 pm »

I think people are holding on to their cameras now much longer and at least this is what I'm seeing. I don't believe that the drop in sales of new cameras correlates that well with the number of users of Lightroom (and equivalent products).

In fact compared to say 10 years ago, I'd say there is at least a 10 fold increase in amateur photographers. Sure we've seen a decrease double digit growth, but to say Adobe's market is shrinking is pretty naive.

As far as feeding the crowd that got Adobe where they are today...they have that crowd already as Butch attested to. If Adobe is to expand, they need to focus on new customer basis...and that new base is the current mobile everything crowd.

Butch, you don't manage products so this might be new to you...but just like in photography, as the market changes, so should the photographer. Why should this be any different for Adobe. Everything is going mobile and Adobe is heading that direction as well.

And I for one don't use mobile LR...don't see a need, but that does not mean I don't see a growing need for the general population.
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #126 on: May 30, 2015, 02:06:52 pm »

And I for one don't use mobile LR... ... but that does not mean I don't see a growing need for the general population.

There is a growing need for having your pictures with you everywhere.  The trouble is that Lightroom Mobile seems to be targeted at those that that shoot tethered sharing  a few pre-determinable pictures as they shoot; it does not meet the needs of the population to which you refer in a practical way.  I have just managed to upload 800 pictures from my Ipad to my Desktop using Lightroom Mobile.  It took over a month.
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chez

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #127 on: May 30, 2015, 02:14:10 pm »

There is a growing need for having your pictures with you everywhere.  The trouble is that Lightroom Mobile seems to be targeted at those that that shoot tethered sharing  a few pre-determinable pictures as they shoot; it does not meet the needs of the population to which you refer in a practical way.  I have just managed to upload 800 pictures from my Ipad to my Desktop using Lightroom Mobile.  It took over a month.

I would think it's just the initial steps into the mobile platform. I suspect we'll see more in the coming years.
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john beardsworth

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #128 on: May 30, 2015, 02:19:30 pm »

There is a growing need for having your pictures with you everywhere.  The trouble is that Lightroom Mobile seems to be targeted at those that that shoot tethered sharing  a few pre-determinable pictures as they shoot; it does not meet the needs of the population to which you refer in a practical way.  I have just managed to upload 800 pictures from my Ipad to my Desktop using Lightroom Mobile.  It took over a month.

Depends on your internet speeds. I estimate that would take 2-3 hours, and I routinely upload around that number without thinking much about it.

It is certainly not targeted at those that shoot tethered. Don't be misled by the example I gave earlier - that was more a case of my noticing a small , thoughtful detail and taking advantage of it.  
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #129 on: May 30, 2015, 02:25:13 pm »

Depends on your internet speeds. I estimate that would take 2-3 hours, and I routinely upload around that number without thinking much about it. 

Maybe you Americans are uniquely favoured by Adobe, but a 20Mbit up / 70Mbit down speed internet is about as good as you can get as a consumer here in Blighty.
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john beardsworth

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #130 on: May 30, 2015, 02:29:47 pm »

Maybe you Americans are uniquely favoured by Adobe, but a 20Mbit up / 70Mbit down speed internet is about as good as you can get as a consumer here in Blighty.

Who are you calling an American? :) 
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Anthony.Ralph

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #131 on: May 30, 2015, 02:35:31 pm »

Maybe you Americans are uniquely favoured by Adobe, but a 20Mbit up / 70Mbit down speed internet is about as good as you can get as a consumer here in Blighty.

I think you will find that John is here in the UK...

Anthony.

Ah, John I were typing at the same time...  :D
« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 02:37:09 pm by Anthony.Ralph »
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #132 on: May 30, 2015, 02:45:46 pm »

Who are you calling an American? :) 

I sit corrected. :-[

Now all I need to find out is how you get such good performance.

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ButchM

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #133 on: May 30, 2015, 02:46:32 pm »


Butch, you don't manage products so this might be new to you...

chez ... your opinions never bother me ... but your veiled intellectual superiority drives me crazy.

Why do you so easily assume I have either no business acumen or am too ignorant to understand your premise?

No, I am not a bona fide "product manager" in the sense of it's reference to a software application development situation. You may think I have a lack of know-how or experience in the business world. I think you may be assuming too much. So please spare me your claim of intellectual  superiority.

I have successfully managed the "product" I have been delivering my clients for over 40 years. I have done so by serving multiple generations of clients both personal and corporate. Including employing a full time staff of three employees as well as a number of part time and contract assistants as needed ... never once missing payroll. You don't accomplish that by ignoring the world around you. In that time frame my management skills were successful enough to support a family of five, pay off two mortgages ahead of schedule (one for my home, one for my studio.) send three kids to college without using grants or loans, two of them onto grad school, pay for three weddings and make substantial contributions to the college fund for my three grandchildren (so far) ...  Of course this pales in comparison of a multi-billion dollar corporation, but it certainly entitles me to some credit for business acumen considering I was the sole decision maker for my business these past four decades. You were conspicuous by your absence when I was inclined to consider such sage advice. I wasn't able to achieve all of that by ignoring market trends or refusing to evolve in an ever-changing market.

I'm merely pointing out, that based upon the recent market indicators, if your assertion is correct, Adobe may not be preparing as wisely as you perceive they are. That my friend, may be new to you.
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #134 on: May 30, 2015, 03:00:58 pm »

What is the job description of a product manager?   What are they accountable for?  How much authority do they have?
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chez

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #135 on: May 30, 2015, 04:01:54 pm »

chez ... your opinions never bother me ... but your veiled intellectual superiority drives me crazy.

Why do you so easily assume I have either no business acumen or am too ignorant to understand your premise?

No, I am not a bona fide "product manager" in the sense of it's reference to a software application development situation. You may think I have a lack of know-how or experience in the business world. I think you may be assuming too much. So please spare me your claim of intellectual  superiority.

I have successfully managed the "product" I have been delivering my clients for over 40 years. I have done so by serving multiple generations of clients both personal and corporate. Including employing a full time staff of three employees as well as a number of part time and contract assistants as needed ... never once missing payroll. You don't accomplish that by ignoring the world around you. In that time frame my management skills were successful enough to support a family of five, pay off two mortgages ahead of schedule (one for my home, one for my studio.) send three kids to college without using grants or loans, two of them onto grad school, pay for three weddings and make substantial contributions to the college fund for my three grandchildren (so far) ...  Of course this pales in comparison of a multi-billion dollar corporation, but it certainly entitles me to some credit for business acumen considering I was the sole decision maker for my business these past four decades. You were conspicuous by your absence when I was inclined to consider such sage advice. I wasn't able to achieve all of that by ignoring market trends or refusing to evolve in an ever-changing market.

I'm merely pointing out, that based upon the recent market indicators, if your assertion is correct, Adobe may not be preparing as wisely as you perceive they are. That my friend, may be new to you.

I guess you must know more about Adobe's business than Adobe. At least with your 40 years of experience...maybe you can consult to Adobe ???

Do you really think the Professional photographer market is the expanding market here....really. That is where you would put your resources at if you were managing LR? That would be your solution for revenue growth?

I can see why you are not a product manager. Of all facets of photography, the professional photography segments is the one in the most decline. The consumer segment has expanded 10 fold since digital while the professional segment has shrunk.

Now again, where would you direct the LR resources?
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chez

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #136 on: May 30, 2015, 04:05:44 pm »

What is the job description of a product manager?   What are they accountable for?  How much authority do they have?

My overall responsibility is profitability and revenue growth of the products I look after. I have complete authority at driving the directions and establishing functionality. I get resources ( $$$ and people ) based on my revenue projections.

If I were running LR, I'd focus onto the consumer market. Professionals are already wrapped up...like Butch said where else can he go, and it's a shrinking market.
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jrp

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #137 on: May 30, 2015, 04:27:41 pm »

If I was running LR, I'd focus onto the consumer market. Professionals are already wrapped up...like Butch said where else can he go, and it's a shrinking market.

The other factor is, of course, the competition.  There is little competition to Adobe in the professional market, apart from the likes of C1.  In the consumer market you are competing with Apple and Google and a range of baggage-free startups such as Mylio.  You (Adobe) have little experience in the consumer market.  Adobe Elements is still for very keen amateurs who are prepared to take the time.   Professionals, really.

So you could stick to your knitting, or you could try to take on the big boys / girls.  If I were product manager, I'd go for the pros and try to make their experience as good as the consumer experience.  Since neither of us in that position, we'll just have to see how well the Adobe product manager manages.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 04:53:24 pm by jrp »
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ButchM

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #138 on: May 30, 2015, 04:37:46 pm »

I guess you must know more about Adobe's business than Adobe. At least with your 40 years of experience...maybe you can consult to Adobe ???

You see this is where we always end up ... you read into a conversation that which does not exist.

I never said I knew more than Adobe when it comes to their business. I merely pointed out that current data points disputed your claim that the amateur market as it would pertain to Lightroom is not as likely to expand at anywhere near the growth rate of the past decade.

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Do you really think the Professional photographer market is the expanding market here....really. That is where you would put your resources at if you were managing LR? That would be your solution for revenue growth?

Please point out where I ever stated that I thought the pro photographer market was expanding? Go ahead. I'll wait.

Now that you have exhausted all your valuable time in search of that which does not exist ... you may recall what I actually offered was why future development must be a zero sum game? A point which you ignored.

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I can see why you are not a product manager.

Clearly stated as much from the beginning. But how do you arrive at the assumption that your product management skills are so different from mine? Do I not face the same tasks and must contemplate future possibilities in the market and choose wisely on how to succeed in achieving a goal by properly conducting research, seeking tools and making wise investments in time and capital? Or do you "product managers" possess some mystical ether that only super humans like yourself are worthy of utilizing and we mere mortals should never aspire to such lofty stature?

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The consumer segment has expanded 10 fold since digital while the professional segment has shrunk.

Yes ... that is true for the past decade ... could you please point to empirical  data that shows the same rate of growth for the coming decade? I'm not seeing it in my research ... it's showing a probable leveling off with some projections of decline ... keeping in mind my earlier point of establishing the criteria of cameras and users taking advantage of RAW processing ... can't see the likelihood of many jpeg shooters in need of Lightroom.

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Now again, where would you direct the LR resources?

First, I never said I knew better than Adobe ... I only disputed your assertion about the expanding amateur market based upon recent data. Secondly I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. I would finish what I started before venturing forth on new development. Even amateur consumers are not fond of incomplete and hamstrung software and are unlikely to stick around long if that mindset prevails for continued development.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 05:44:25 pm by ButchM »
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hjulenissen

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Re: What has the Adobe LR team been doing since LR5 for 2 years?
« Reply #139 on: May 30, 2015, 05:19:18 pm »

Everything is going mobile and Adobe is heading that direction as well.
I don't believe that "everything is going mobile". If that was the case, HPC manufacturers should stop building large computing farms and rather focus on cell phone (apps).

Clearly, cell phones have become a lot more relevant to the average consumer, and PCs have become somewhat less relevant. That is not to say that the same must happen for niches like photographers or graphical artists, or that the trend will extrapolate forever.

-h
« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 05:22:59 pm by hjulenissen »
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