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Author Topic: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial  (Read 33893 times)

mezzoduomo

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #100 on: May 25, 2015, 06:50:58 PM »

...You have to take 'em for what they are…part prognosticating, part wishlisting, part letting off steam...

-Dave-

...and part bloviating, part member-measuring.  ::)

I'm really quite surprised at the amount of time and effort expended by some to opine at length, here where it matters...not at all.
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amolitor

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #101 on: May 25, 2015, 07:00:15 PM »

Nothing really matters, in the end. Entropy wins. The universe reaches uniform temperature.
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jjj

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #102 on: May 25, 2015, 07:17:50 PM »

Nothing really matters, in the end. Entropy wins. The universe reaches uniform temperature.
Or does it?
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kodachrome

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #103 on: May 25, 2015, 08:18:44 PM »

Michael has been ranting against Canon and Nikon for a long time now. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the gist of it seems to be that they aren't doing much in the mirrorless market. I agree that one would think they would be doing more in that area, but for many serious photographers, mirrorless cameras are worthless. That will probably change, but, for me right now, they are worthless, and I'm sure many other nature/wildlife photographers feel the same way. To be honest LL as a website has only a fraction of the interest to me as it did, because Michael would only talk about MF digital cameras and how great they were, now it's all about how great mirrorless cameras are. I'm sure they are great for their intended users, just like Canon/Nikon cameras are for their users.
The reality is that Canon came out with some really great products at the end of 2014, not that you would ever know it reading this website. The 7D MKII is a great, great camera for action, wildlife, birds, etc. They also came out with a MUCH improved 400mm f/4 DO II lens that is as sharp as the 500, but works really well with the 1.4X converter, which gives you a full frame equivalent of 900mm on the 7D MKII that is hand holdable for long periods. This is a game changer. They also came out with an amazing upgrade to the 100-400 zoom that is extremely sharp, fast focusing, and focuses to 3 ft at 400mm. I couldn't ask any more from Canon, unless they wanted to give me their products for free.
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thebatman

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #104 on: May 26, 2015, 07:22:12 PM »

I've been following this thread and also been reading Thom Hogan's views for a while.  It's a great discussion although not many good answers for the camera makers, I'm afraid.  Two comments to add to the discussion:

One, I do believe anything beyond the core enthusiast/pro market is well and truly lost.  Like many (?), I had dabbled in photography but really got serious when I had kids (in the mid-2000s).  At the time it was very common at the playground to see most parents with their shiny new digital SLRs.   Now, it's so rare to see that, it's actually starting to become a bit *odd* to be seen toting a DSLR – literally everyone else is using smart phones and having a "real" camera is starting to stick out like a sore thumb.  No amount of feature enhancement will save you once your product becomes outré (see: station wagon, Blackberry, CRT monitor). I realize the readers of this site aren't really heavy into kids/family stuff, but you have to admit that's where a lot of market demand comes from.  Once I was hooked I dreamed of the same 5D Mk2 as everyone else…

Two, because the collapse of the market will be so severe, it's not crazy for a strong player (Canon, Nikon) to just sit back and wait for others to go bust/exit the market.  If your sales are declining 20% a year your R&D budget needs to fall 20% /year at least (probably more).  Similar to what others have said, will that ETTR mode or USB 3.0 connection really sell any more units?  Sadly, it's really not rational to spend much effort improving the products further.  Spend your effort managing expenses down in line with sales, hope 3-4 players exit, and then you'll have the (much smaller) market to yourself.  I don't like this one bit, but IMHO this is by far the most likely thing that will happen.  Sadly nothing these guys do will really affect overall sales levels that much.  I believe I was the last generation that really saw a DSLR (or anything more than a smartphone) as an important product to have.

Ken
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BJL

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entry-level ILCs still rule for "family events", and probably sports
« Reply #105 on: May 26, 2015, 09:36:35 PM »

One, I do believe anything beyond the core enthusiast/pro market is well and truly lost.  Like many (?), I had dabbled in photography but really got serious when I had kids (in the mid-2000s).  At the time it was very common at the playground to see most parents with their shiny new digital SLRs.   Now, it's so rare to see that, it's actually starting to become a bit *odd* to be seen toting a DSLR . .  .
That is also what I see for "everyday" photography; the stuff that was mostly not done at all in the film era, before the 24/7/365 micro-documentation of our live began. But at the next step up of "events" like vacations, weddings, graduations, I still see a lot of basic SLR kits with f/5.6 kit zoom lenses in use; maybe as much as with film SLR's.  I do not know much about sporting events, but at a guess, SLRs still rule there too, and do handle that use case far better than any pocketable camera.  So I still see camera makers having hopes for the "family event" camera market, which is where film SLR's dominated once upon a time.

The bottom line is that interchangeable lens cameras still sell in significantly larger numbers than film SLRs ever did; just not a many as during the bubble.
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NancyP

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #106 on: May 27, 2015, 11:04:19 AM »

As far as Pakistan is concerned, bloodline is a significant factor - Benazir Bhutto was the daughter of General Z. Bhutto, president and prime minister of Pakistan in the 1970s, and founder of a major political party.  In the United States, the analogous phenomenon is the election of widows of politicians to statewide office - a local example having been Jean Carnahan formerly of the U.S. Senate, elected after her husband Mel, former Missouri governer and then-candidate for U.S. Senate, was killed in a plane crash. Missouri is a pretty conservative state, and it is unlikely that a woman would have been elected to the U.S. Senate or U.S. Congress without family ties (U.S.Rep. Joann Emerson is a political widow as well).
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amolitor

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #107 on: May 27, 2015, 11:26:33 AM »

I find it odd how people forget.

The 'I just want a picture' crowd has been well served for 100 years, starting with Kodak's preloaded camera. 'You push the button, we do the rest'

The cheap, easy to use, camera has been with us all along. Instamatic. Polaroid. In the heyday of Polaroid they sold twice as many cameras as the SLR makers.

That crowd is now moving rapidly to 100% phones, which serve them better than have ever been served, because phones are connected. That crowd did flirt briefly with the DSLR when the cheap kits turned up, hence the bubble of 20m units a year.

Bubble's over. Phones win.



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donbga

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #108 on: May 27, 2015, 04:14:07 PM »

What a perfectly worthless thread.
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amolitor

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #109 on: May 27, 2015, 04:22:13 PM »

What a perfectly worthless thread.


Thanks for your valuable contributions.
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Isaac

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #110 on: May 27, 2015, 05:33:19 PM »

Quote
<Michael Reichmann>Thinking what I would do if I were Sony…

"FY2014 Results: Realized significant improvement in profit, despite a shrinking consumer camera market, by reducing fixed costs through operational efficiencies and shifting focus to premium products." [pdf slide 35, Sony IR Day 2015]

"FY2015 Key Strategies: (1) Apply technologies in the high-end professional sphere [“4K” “High Frame Rate” “Wide Color Gamut”] to consumer products. (2) Establish ecosystem of strong differentiated products centered around our α-mount [Full-frame E-mount] system. (3) Expand operational best practices of the consumer business across the entire IP&S segment." [pdf slide 38, Sony IR Day 2015]
« Last Edit: May 27, 2015, 06:33:24 PM by Isaac »
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thebatman

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #111 on: May 27, 2015, 05:43:10 PM »

The cheap, easy to use, camera has been with us all along


I think you and BJL are saying the same thing then: the bubble is over, ILC sales will keep dropping until they hit a low "steady state" (which might be more than film SLRs used to do back in the day).  Makes sense to me.  I think the only debate is if companies <should> be innovating more to try to re-ignite growth.  Thom Hogan (and Michael?) seem to be saying yes.  I think we are saying that would not have much effect and the ROI would be low/negative.
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graeme

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #112 on: May 31, 2015, 10:12:07 PM »

Of course, given the market opportunity, we all expect smartphone tech to continue improving in various ways - including low-light.

Meanwhile low-light is the most obvious boundary I come up against with a bottom-of-the-range Sony A35 -- in particular, achieving good focus without flash using the EVF.

Absolutely agree.

My point was how forgiving a DSLR was vs a smartphone.
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BruceMax

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #113 on: June 01, 2015, 01:29:57 PM »

I understand the concerns and approaches in the replies to "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial. I agree with the bits and pieces involved but it strikes me that the manufacturers have walked, maybe ran away from the consumer. Over the last 15 +/- years the manufacturers have made it almost impossible for the small, hometown camera store to survive by requiring them to carry relatively large inventories, so slowly, the local camera stores disappeared. Some states have 2 or less stores and probably some have none. My hometown camera store closed a few years ago and left only a big box store here and the big big city mail order stores, which by the way, do a pretty good job of taking orders and delivering product. The crux, for me ,is that many times, photography purchases are either well thought through or just plain lust satisfaction, impulse purchases. I suspect the latter accounted for 30-40% of purchases by folks hanging out at their local shop with the owner lovingly showing us the latest products while we egged each other on to buy the stuff. That was fun and it is no more and therefore, sales dropped by 30-40% because I suspect that was the percent of impulse purchases at your local emporium.

The big guys like Nikon, Canon, etc may eventually catch on and make it possible and profitable for the "little guys" hometown shops. Maybe they are hoping to be absorbed by Apple, which might be a good step forward.
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jjj

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Re: "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial
« Reply #114 on: June 01, 2015, 04:11:45 PM »

I understand the concerns and approaches in the replies to "No Guts, No Glory" rantatorial. I agree with the bits and pieces involved but it strikes me that the manufacturers have walked, maybe ran away from the consumer. Over the last 15 +/- years the manufacturers have made it almost impossible for the small, hometown camera store to survive by requiring them to carry relatively large inventories, so slowly, the local camera stores disappeared.
I think you find there was another reason, one far bigger and one that has affected a large variety of businesses. The www.
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