Luminous Landscape Forum
Site & Board Matters => About This Site => Topic started by: David Watson on June 16, 2011, 05:45:46 pm
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Having experienced similar problems to those so eruditely described by Mark I too have been thinking about why this can be happening and not only to popular cameras. Yes - the recession is partly to blame as manufacturers and suppliers of raw material reduce their production plans to safe guard their cash-flows. The most important reason however and an "amplifier" of the issue is the whole concept of just-in-time manufacturing. In days of yore the manufacturer of chemicals say would have adequate stocks of raw materials and good stocks of various standard finished products. The plastics manufacturer ditto. The injection moulder ditto. The camera assembly plant ditto and distributors and retailers would carry adequate stocks to meet the demands of customers who walked into their stores.
The accountants looked at this model and said if we compress this "supply chain" we will release vast amounts of cash which can be put to good use elsewhere such as paying inflated bonuses to themselves, buying back shares and indulging in speculative forays into new virtual markets. Talking about virtual markets Mark could have mentioned the plethora of companies advertising products online as being "in stock". What they mean is that they are in stock at a central logistics facility somewhere but they are all advertising the same single item as being in stock.
I used to own a distributor of microcomputer systems and sold the company in 1984. We bought products, stocked them, sold them, and packaged and despatched them. This same company still exists and turns over many hundreds of millions of pounds at tiny margins. It does not buy products, stock them, sell them pack them or despatch them. It "facilitates" the process by which many small companies can order these items on a credit basis and have them despatched by another specialist link in the "supply chain" directly to the end customer. That is how all printers are now sold.
Where am I going with this? I think that you can see that there are at least flaws in this model. The first is that marketing companies are all advertising the same item as being in stock but only one can sell each item at a time. Secondly any disruption at any point in the supply chain causes the mother of all multiple pile-ups as one link after another fails. What about the accountants you might ask? They are all okay thank you running hedge funds which specialise in moving the vast pool of liquidity released by these efficiencies from one speculative opportunity to another.
Let us get back to investing in manufacturing (stocks), distribution (stocks) and retail (stocks) so that Mark and the myriad other potential and actual customers can actually enjoy these new products before they become obsolete but then that is another story.
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When there was no supply of Nikon D3x and 200-400 in the US, there was plenty of stock in Australia, and NPS was offering members significant discount as well on a wide range of Pro bodies and lenses.
Go Figure.
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I was amazed to hear Leica M lenses are hard to come by - is there really that much demand at the cost of them these days?
I am not sure how much the recession is responsible for the lack of stock. I experienced this problem when I switched to Nikon when the D3 first became available, and it obviously continues today. The GH1 was so hard to get I had a photographer friend in Japan send one, and I bought the GH2 from a store in Canada that had one in stock. I also see posts like the one from Sydlow from people in the UK and Europe, claiming they are sitting on store shelves there. Could it be an issue of manufacturing capacity and a reluctance to expand facilities? Have spokesman at either Nikon or Panasonic ever commented on this issue?
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Prior to the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster in Japan, the supply chain issues were predominantly a Nikon USA phenomenon. Nikon gear was readily available in other countries - including Canada - as was gear from most other manufacturers.
I got the impression that (prior to the earthquake) Nikon USA was artificially limiting supply in order to drive up prices, and if so, the unfortunate incidents in Japan will have hit them even harder than it otherwise would have.
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Where am I going with this? I think that you can see that there are at least flaws in this model. The first is that marketing companies are all advertising the same item as being in stock but only one can sell each item at a time. Secondly any disruption at any point in the supply chain causes the mother of all multiple pile-ups as one link after another fails. What about the accountants you might ask? They are all okay thank you running hedge funds which specialise in moving the vast pool of liquidity released by these efficiencies from one speculative opportunity to another.
That's an unnecessarily simplistic and alarmist example. You really think there's nobody pulling the strings at the central depot who holds that single unit? They keep checking the demand for each product, they have their models on when to order new stock, they have their marketing euros to direct demand to where they need it. As you implied, these players work on volume due to razor thin margins, so it is in their interest to move units as fast as possible. So multiple people asking for the same unit is most likely not their fault, but caused by something upstream in the supply and/or manufacturing chain. Of course disruptions occur, and some products sell surprisingly well (or not).
There have been anecdotal reports of camera body and lens shortages in different markets for at least a year, well before any tsunami. Perhaps there have been bankruptcies of manufacturers of some essential hard-to-find parts, or disruptions in some rare raw material distribution - or more likely there's more going on behind the scenes than a failure of just-in-time manufacturing.
There's another thread here with some discussion on US vs EU shortages - yes, EU hasn't seen such severe shortages of Panasonic MFT gear, for example. So some "shortages" might be just a result of marketing strategy where Japanese companies are directing products to more lucrative markets with better ROI, higher potential for growth, or combination thereof. Reportedly MFT cameras are selling like crazy in China, maybe that's where all your US units are :)
By the way, the reason why you are able to buy a cutting-edge pro-grade DSLR for a mere 2k is in great part thanks to the efficiencies of just-in-time manufacturing.
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I've been talking to a friend who works in photo retail here in the UK. He says that items made in Japan are in very short supply, whereas most items made elsewhere are not too bad. Japanese car parts are similarly affected. The conclusion seems obvious. The prediction seems to be that the situation will continue, at least to some extent, for the next six to nine months.
Just don't drop your favourite camera until supplies are restored.
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I think there may be another - simpler - explanation for all of this. These are world-wide companies supplying world-wide demand. Don't forget that the size of the middle class in China (by our standards) exceeds the population of the USA. China, India, Brazil, Russia and other smaller "emerging" economies are growing very quickly and minting large numbers of very well-to-do people. They want the same gizmos everyone else wants. It could just be the case that manufacturers didn't anticipate the rate and extent of world-scale demand growth for the better products, and it takes time to gear-up production lines with all that is entailed.
By the way Mark, excellent wild-life photos in that article.
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Even more ludicrous--I'm now hearing rumors of a Panasonic GH3. Oh well, at least I won't be able to buy the latest and greatest instead of last year's old unavailable model.
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The Lumix DMC-GF3 has just been announced so you won't be able to get that either.
Cheers,
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For Nikon gear, Thom Hogan has been chronicling the supply chain and management decisions for some time now. It's quite complex with decisions on consumer vs. pro gear having to be made. While many LuLa readers would opt for a D3, that's not the most salable item in terms of quantity for the company. Nikon has to balance a lot of things in terms of making the call on what to produce. We may not like what they decide (cannot comment on Canon as I'm a Nikonian).
While it is too late to influence Mark's choice of camera gear, I would have advised a Nikon D300s with a Nikon AF-S VR Zoom-NIKKOR 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G IF-ED Telephoto Zoom. About $2K for a good camera and lens that will hold up on your journey. You don't even have to worry about all the buttons and stuff as there are only about four or five that are important. Battery lasts a good while (I was in Europe for 13 days recently and only ran my battery down to the 1/2 mark capturing about 500 images).
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I'll second Alan's suggestion, except I would buy a couple of used DSLRs and lenses from one of the reputable online dealers. Africa is hard on cameras and I'd be afraid to take a Leica S2. I just looked and found a used D3X from my favorite Atlanta-based used dealer. Best wishes on your safari, Mark.
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For Nikon gear, Thom Hogan has been chronicling the supply chain and management decisions for some time now. It's quite complex with decisions on consumer vs. pro gear having to be made. While many LuLa readers would opt for a D3, that's not the most salable item in terms of quantity for the company. Nikon has to balance a lot of things in terms of making the call on what to produce. We may not like what they decide (cannot comment on Canon as I'm a Nikonian).
Yep, Thom provides a level of analyis on this topic that is very thorough.
Regarding the D3x and exotic tele lenses, I believe that the earthquake/tsunami is the #1 cause of the low availability, coupled with the fact that Nikon is about to release new pro bodies from that same plant in Sendai.
While it is too late to influence Mark's choice of camera gear, I would have advised a Nikon D300s with a Nikon AF-S VR Zoom-NIKKOR 70-300mm f/4.5-5.6G IF-ED Telephoto Zoom. About $2K for a good camera and lens that will hold up on your journey. You don't even have to worry about all the buttons and stuff as there are only about four or five that are important. Battery lasts a good while (I was in Europe for 13 days recently and only ran my battery down to the 1/2 mark capturing about 500 images).
I would personnally go with 2*D7000 if image quality is an important decision criteria.
Cheers,
Bernard
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yes, there are an unusual number of cameras and lenses unavailable now
however, b&h has Canon 7ds and 100-400 lenses (and the 400 5.6). unless this is extremely short notice, it's surprising that lensrentals.com wouldn't have a satisfactory combination of camera/lenses available
interesting to see how Mark likes the Panasonic image quality
are 35mm slrs that much more difficult to master than the S2? maybe a consumer superzoom is in order?
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interesting to see how Mark likes the Panasonic image quality
Not so surprising...if you can GET a GH2 to test you'll find the camera, sensor, lenses and image quality for 16MP raw capture excellent...the key is finding the stuff. Unique Photo lists batteries and chargers as in stock (I bought 3 batteries a few weeks ago and just ordered a 2nd charger). They list cameras with certain lenses as being in stock as well.
And yes, right now, supplies of a lot of stuff is constrained...for a whole host of reasons (largely the economy and for anything from Japan, the fallout from the tsunami).
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For what it's worth, in my experience this is a bit less of an issue in Europe than in the US. I was able to order extra batteries for my GH1 in the UK and I see D3s, D3x and some exotics stocked at most camera stores here in Copenhagen. Of course, the downside is that we have to pay a lot more money for the same items...
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I am wondering if its correct.
B&H and your local camera stores are just 2 stores in the US. There are a lot more.
For example, panasonic GH2 kit (14-140 lens) is available in stock from this retailer.
If you look at feedback ratings, this retailer has lots of good feedback
http://www.42photo.com/pd-productid-105987-k-panasonic_dmc_gh2_165_mp_digital_camera_w_14_140mm_lens.htm
Nikon 200-400 six left in stock with amazon
http://www.amazon.com/Nikon-200-400mm-4G-II-Telephoto/dp/B003JBHSHK
With the internet, you have at your disposal 100s of search results, and reseller ratings from buyers about those sellers.
So the sky may be falling at some places, but you can shop at others.
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Mark, another thought that comes to mind about these shortages concerns the issue of strategic materials and processes that are common to a whole lot of products and brands. All you need is a supply screw-up in one of them and it can affect masses of production across the board until it is resolved. We've been hearing recently about growing supply issues with various exotic base materials. With today's inventory management systems being as tight as they are, all you need is a delay of a component and the whole production process grinds to a halt. Real-time inventory management is super-efficient and great for the bottom-line - when it works. Apart from that, one has to countenance the reality that even though it may not have been the initial cause, the earthquake/tsunami in Japan must be exacerbating the problems. Another factor, not only in Japan, but increasingly in China and elsewhere, are power shortages. Many of the fast-growing "emerging economies" from which we obtain much of our high-tech merchandise are experiencing growing and increasingly severe power shortages - again because demand is outstripping their ability to grow their systems. Resulting supply disruptions get magnified because they have knock-on effects. I suspect if one were to drill down further on this issue, one would find a range of factors, some related, some independent, but all causing the same outcome - delay.
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Not so surprising...if you can GET a GH2 to test you'll find the camera, sensor, lenses and image quality for 16MP raw capture excellent...the key is finding the stuff. Unique Photo lists batteries and chargers as in stock (I bought 3 batteries a few weeks ago and just ordered a 2nd charger). They list cameras with certain lenses as being in stock as well.
And yes, right now, supplies of a lot of stuff is constrained...for a whole host of reasons (largely the economy and for anything from Japan, the fallout from the tsunami).
I finally found one GH2 !! after dozens of calls and won't tell you where because I'm going this afternoon for it :P
Price is down too. 100€ less that a few days ago.
But yes, it's like rushing on the only exemplary. Schewe is right, you find GH2 with kit lens although there is not that much, but what's almost impossible is body only, and I wanted body only.
There is no 5D2 stock right now.
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Was talking to my local pro store last week, they're hurting badly from this, hard to be a camera shop when you haven't had a camera, lens or accessory to sell for 3 months. It's been hard enough for the smaller stores but with this it's been really nasty.
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Well, before posting such a generalized article, Mark Dubovoy should have made some research exercises to find out that this extreme short supply, is mostly something special for the US market, and is less valid for many European countries. Generally, the m4/3 lenses are in good availability in the stores, and even the GH2 - though it has some shortages, isn't that difficult to find.
Proably the US currently is less profitable to the manufactures, partly due to the recession, partly also due to some business legislation and habits. (This buying, trying, and returning habit, is less prominent at least in Germany)
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Looking at it with a sense of humor the situation reminds me of Monty Python's famous Cheeseshop sketch:
http://www.montypython.net/scripts/cheese.php
[...]
C: I want to buy some cheese.
[...]
O: What would you like?
C: Well, eh, how about a little Red Leicester.
O: I'm, a-fraid we're fresh out of Red Leicester, sir.
C: Oh, never mind, how are you on Tilsit?
O: I'm afraid we never have that at the end of the week, sir, we get it fresh on Monday.
C: Tish tish. No matter. Well, stout yeoman, four ounces of Caerphilly, if you please.
O: Ah! It's beeeen on order, sir, for two weeks. Was expecting it this morning.
C: 'T's Not my lucky day, is it? Aah, Bel Paese?
O: Sorry, sir.
C: Red Windsor?
O: Normally, sir, yes. Today the van broke down.
C: Ah. Stilton?
O: Sorry.
C: Gruyere? Emmental?
O: No.
C: Any Norwegian Jarlsberger, per chance?
O: No.
C: Liptauer?
O: No.
C: Lancashire?
O: No.
[...]
C: You... do have some cheese, don't you?
O: (brightly) Of course, sir. It's a cheese shop, sir. We've got-
C: No no... don't tell me. I'm keen to guess.
O: Fair enough.
C: Uuuuuh, Wensleydale.
O: Yes?
C: Ah, well, I'll have some of that!
O: Oh! I thought you were talking to me, sir. Mister Wensleydale, that's my name.
(pause)
C: Greek Feta?
O: Uh, not as such.
C: Uuh, Gorgonzola?
O: No
C: Parmesan?
O: No
[...]
C: I see. Uuh... 'Illchester, eh?
O: Right, sir.
C: All right. Okay. 'Have you got any?' He asked, expecting the answer 'no'.
O: I'll have a look, sir.. nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnno.
C: It's not much of a cheese shop, is it?
O: Finest in the district sir!
C: (annoyed) Explain the logic underlying that conclusion, please.
O: Well, it's so clean, sir!
C: It's certainly uncontaminated by cheese.
O: (brightly) You haven't asked me about Limburger, sir.
C: Would it be worth it?
O: Could be.
[...]
C: (slowly) Have you got any Limburger?
O: No.
C: Figures. Predictable, really I suppose. It was an act of purest optimism to have posed the question in the first place....... Tell me:
O: Yessir?
C: (deliberately) Have you in fact got any cheese here at all?
O: Yes,sir.
C: Really?
(pause)
O: No. Not really, sir.
C: You haven't.
O: Nosir. Not a scrap. I was deliberately wasting your time,sir.
[...]
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(This buying, trying, and returning habit, is less prominent at least in Germany)
I wonder if this point about buyer habits should be underlined. Not being a big buyer of new equipment, I'm constantly surprised by forum users casually reporting that they've placed orders with several suppliers simultaneously in order to secure the latest-greatest, with the intention of cancelling or returning. It's hard to know how suppliers can plan around that?
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I ordered my GH2 in October, and got it in early January. Batteries have just become available. They are in stock at Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004KDVNZO
I know it is a hassle, but sometimes when looking for gear it pays to call retailers in major cities. In Sacramento, where I used to live, this store http://www.pardeescameras.com/ has a lot of stock. He has two M9's right now for example.
Tell you what Mark. You don't want to take that expensive S2 to Africa. Let's do a swap. I'll lend you my panny 14-140mm (and I'll even throw in the 20mm pancake) and I'll borrow your S2 while you are gone? I'd love to shoot an S2 for a while (er, I'd like to own one, but not in the $$ position at this time).
I'm not thinking you'll take me up on the offer. But I think the lending thing is a good idea. Obviously you take care of your gear. If you can't find a 14-140 and having one means you don't have to haul the S2, I would lend you mine. Email me, photos@bobtowery.com.
Here is a shot from Mexico with the 14-140:
(http://bobtowery.typepad.com/.a/6a010536dc2e27970c0147e210cafc970b-800wi)
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I think there may be another - simpler - explanation for all of this. These are world-wide companies supplying world-wide demand. Don't forget that the size of the middle class in China (by our standards) exceeds the population of the USA. China, India, Brazil, Russia and other smaller "emerging" economies are growing very quickly and minting large numbers of very well-to-do people. They want the same gizmos everyone else wants. It could just be the case that manufacturers didn't anticipate the rate and extent of world-scale demand growth for the better products, and it takes time to gear-up production lines with all that is entailed.
There's a very different culture towards money in China than the USA - I can't say if the same is true for Brazil, Russia and India (BRIC): traditionally they're savers, not spenders. This poses problems for the Chinese Government as it tries to get local spending to start driving the local economy.
Further, what do you mean by "middle class in China (by our standards)"? Are you measuring "middle class" by relative income or something else? The important point here being that if it were to be income based then a "middle class" person in China earns substantially less than a "middle class" person in the USA. The important point here being that a GF-2 or GH-3 or D7000 or 5D MarkII is going to be on sale in China for roughly the same price as it is in the USA, except in local currency. Thus the relative cost of such equipment is substantially higher.
"They want the same gizmos everyone else wants." - for the Internet generation, I think that's true but for those in their 30s and older, I'm not so sure. I work in the USA with Chinese expats and their purchasing and spending behaviour is completely different to that of local people, even though they're earning a similar wage.
I think it would be useful to see sales figures per country, vs expected sales, before it is safe drawing any conclusions like you have.
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There's a very different culture towards money in China than the USA - I can't say if the same is true for Brazil, Russia and India (BRIC): traditionally they're savers, not spenders. This poses problems for the Chinese Government as it tries to get local spending to start driving the local economy.
Further, what do you mean by "middle class in China (by our standards)"? Are you measuring "middle class" by relative income or something else? The important point here being that if it were to be income based then a "middle class" person in China earns substantially less than a "middle class" person in the USA. The important point here being that a GF-2 or GH-3 or D7000 or 5D MarkII is going to be on sale in China for roughly the same price as it is in the USA, except in local currency. Thus the relative cost of such equipment is substantially higher.
"They want the same gizmos everyone else wants." - for the Internet generation, I think that's true but for those in their 30s and older, I'm not so sure. I work in the USA with Chinese expats and their purchasing and spending behaviour is completely different to that of local people, even though they're earning a similar wage.
I think it would be useful to see sales figures per country, vs expected sales, before it is safe drawing any conclusions like you have.
I agree with you - it would be good to see all that information, but obviously we won't. And I agree with your points about the spending cultures being different, and the dollar value of "middle class" being different, etc. But the fact is that there a MANY people in those countries spending increasing amounts of money on all kinds of stuff. My basic point is that manufacturers may have underestimated the rapid rate of demand growth from *non-traditional* markets.
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Looking at it with a sense of humor the situation reminds me of Monty Python's famous Cheeseshop sketch:
http://www.montypython.net/scripts/cheese.php
You could have saved everyone the trouble of reading the script when the sketch itself (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3KBuQHHKx0)is readily available.
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There's one other aspect that might be impacting availability of goods in the USA: value of the US Dollar. With the US dollar now being worth significantly less than it was 5 years ago, unless manufacturers increase the prices of existing products (which at least Canon are doing with new lenses they bring to market), then the MSRP is going to deliver them a smaller profit.
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Mark's thoughts are well stated, as the owner of a small camera store who is struggling through this right now, without the tsunami consumers would see few issues except for some of the more exotic glass, and in Nikon's case the D3x which has very little demand at this point in time.
While changes in manufacturing and inventory polices setup the current situation, the tsunami itself is really the issue. No company, let alone an entire country, could afford to set in place any plan that would mitigate issues from such a cataclysmic event. Even companies with no actual plants in the affected area purchase parts from other companies that no longer exist or are damaged too severely to be back to normal. While companies like Canon and Nikon all scramble to find alternative suppliers, rolling blackouts throughout Japan affects production for these alternative suppliers, who then produce less with more demand.
On the bright side, we see improvements in many of the more popular bodies (5dmark2, 7d, d700 and d7000), enough that we even have some in stock and available at times , as well as many lenses. Also cameras like G12's and s95's are beginning to trickle in again. Canon has told us things should be approaching normalcy by July (we'll see), Nikon still isn't projecting much. We are almost back to normal inventory for the Nex-5 and 18-200mm lens (pretty popular right now) as well as the a55. As far as the GH-2, the GF and GH cameras (which I don't carry) have always been a difficult find ... Panasonic really doesn't seem committed to them. Not sure how much of that was tsunami related and how much just panasonic never really trying to produce that many.
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There's one other aspect that might be impacting availability of goods in the USA: value of the US Dollar. With the US dollar now being worth significantly less than it was 5 years ago, unless manufacturers increase the prices of existing products (which at least Canon are doing with new lenses they bring to market), then the MSRP is going to deliver them a smaller profit.
Yes but a smaller profit is better than no profit, so unless there is a fundamental demand:supply imbalance, there's no opportunity cost continuing to supply the US market, as long as they recovered their variable costs.
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Yes but a smaller profit is better than no profit, so unless there is a fundamental demand:supply imbalance, there's no opportunity cost continuing to supply the US market, as long as they recovered their variable costs.
Just because a market is profitable doesn't necessarily mean it makes sense to enter or stay there - manufacturers of goods have limited supply (duh), so they do ROI calculations. It is possible that other markets have higher ROI due to FOREX, taxation, potential for future growth by investing in market share now, etc. than the US, which would make them more attractive.
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Just because a market is profitable doesn't necessarily mean it makes sense to enter or stay there - manufacturers of goods have limited supply (duh), so they do ROI calculations. It is possible that other markets have higher ROI due to FOREX, taxation, potential for future growth by investing in market share now, etc. than the US, which would make them more attractive.
You're missing my point - the key issue is "manufacturers have limited supply" - and its not "duh" - it's a real question. What is the supply:demand balance? We don't know that. In an excess demand scenario it pays to prioritize the higher value markets - sure; but in a balanced demand:supply scenario unless the US market is so crummy that they can't even recover their variable costs, it still pays them to stay there. They were there already. The point I'm getting at is that no matter how I turn this issue around in my mind, I can come to only one of two conclusions: the US market at current exchange rates has become so toxic that manufacturers can't even recover variable cost (which I think may be a stretch, but I have no data to verify this and never will see any). OR, there are supply bottlenecks relative to demand.
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You're missing my point - the key issue is "manufacturers have limited supply" - and its not "duh" - it's a real question. What is the supply:demand balance? We don't know that. In an excess demand scenario it pays to prioritize the higher value markets - sure; but in a balanced demand:supply scenario unless the US market is so crummy that they can't even recover their variable costs, it still pays them to stay there. They were there already. The point I'm getting at is that no matter how I turn this issue around in my mind, I can come to only one of two conclusions: the US market at current exchange rates has become so toxic that manufacturers can't even recover variable cost (which I think may be a stretch, but I have no data to verify this and never will see any). OR, there are supply bottlenecks relative to demand.
Ah, I see. Or it could be a combination of severely limited supply combined with the need to capture new markets. For example, perhaps Panasonic keeps insatiable Chinese customers happy by pushing units there so that, say, Canon doesn't take too much market share. If Panasonic neglects a market which is growing ~10% a year for over ten years while their established western markets are stagnating for years on end, it might be prudent to neglect established markets especially when supply is constricted.
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Ah, I see. Or it could be a combination of severely limited supply combined with the need to capture new markets. For example, perhaps Panasonic keeps insatiable Chinese customers happy by pushing units there so that, say, Canon doesn't take too much market share. If Panasonic neglects a market which is growing ~10% a year for over ten years while their established western markets are stagnating for years on end, it might be prudent to neglect established markets especially when supply is constricted.
Also a plausible scenario.
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With any luck the supply problems will encourage people to actually use what they have rather than endlessly writing about and lusting over what they don't have.
I've written about this elsewhere. It's amazing how profoundly digital changed the entire product cycle of the photo industry. There are pros who shot with the same camera for literally decades in the film era. I've done photography "seriously" for only 12 or so years, and my two film cameras are 30+ years old and still going strong, and I can't imagine ever changing them.
Original 5D was good enough for thousands and thousands of photographers, but I bet many of them upgraded when 5DII came out. There are significant incremental technology upgrades not necessarily related to IQ, such as live view, faster AF, or dedicated MLU button :P, and those are certainly part of the reason why people upgrade more often than in the film days.
It's also a tough change for the manufacturers. If you don't release a revolutionary or at least a hugely evolutionary camera every year, you can easily be left in the dust of your competition and shunned by the buying public.
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I thought that Mark made it quite clear that he didn't want to buy "grey market", which is what it would be if he'd purchased outside of the US.
There are even some product brands which are stopped on private import by US customs because a US entity owns the trademark.
Michael
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I thought that Mark made it quite clear that he didn't want to buy "grey market", which is what it would be if he'd purchased outside of the US.
Mark titled and wrote the article from a supply chain perspective, but had plenty of personal anecdotes which are understandably restricted to very local US experiences. Since it's a global forum, many of us are highlighting the situation outside the US for a more complete picture, and putting forth alternative reasons why Mark and other Americans might be seeing local stock shortages.
I doubt any of us who are talking about stock outside of US were suggesting him to import, unless the main site has suddenly become a forum for seeking personal advice for a few individuals :P
I find it hard to see how a company which owns a trademark could possibly restrict personal imports and even harness public funds to enforce it, but I've heard stranger things.
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Isn't this the truth!!
Ordered a lens about a week ago, that was clearly labeled as being in stock. I even got an estimated arrival date about 8 days into the future. Today I get a message that the item is unavailable they don't know when it will be available. This will kill future sales. Who wants to buy into a system that has these problems?
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This article remind me of something else I read sometime ago: "LensRentals Blog - State of the SLR Market -2009 (http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2009/04/state-of-the-slr-market-2009)".
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Interesting article..
Not sure about the
" As a recovering large format view camera addict, Medium Format shooter, and someone who does not like (and does not currently own) 35 mm DSLR's with their hundreds of custom functions, dozens of buttons, bad ergonomics, excessive weight and size, etc.,"
Seems a bit of a generalisation to my mind but maybe Mark can explain a little more.
May I present the Maxxum/Dynax 7 ;)
http://www.amazon.com/Minolta-Maxxum-35mm-Camera-Body/dp/B0000539VS
Lots of buttons..lots of function and controls..nice light but good quality plastic body, excellent AF system. Probably the best handling camera I've ever used or owned. I know it's film but hey they don't make 'em like that any more!
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Interesting article..
Not sure about the
" As a recovering large format view camera addict, Medium Format shooter, and someone who does not like (and does not currently own) 35 mm DSLR's with their hundreds of custom functions, dozens of buttons, bad ergonomics, excessive weight and size, etc.,"
Seems a bit of a generalisation to my mind but maybe Mark can explain a little more.
May I present the Maxxum/Dynax 7 ;)
http://www.amazon.com/Minolta-Maxxum-35mm-Camera-Body/dp/B0000539VS
Lots of buttons..lots of function and controls..nice light but good quality plastic body, excellent AF system. Probably the best handling camera I've ever used or owned. I know it's film but hey they don't make 'em like that any more!
That's what I say every time I see my F3... and the F2 was even better.
Rob C
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Mr. Dubovy is clearly a talented fellow, and he has written some excellent and provocative stuff. However, this article strikes me mostly as a juvenile rant provoked by frustration at not being able to instantly obtain what he wanted.
While a lot of consumer-grade gear from Japanese labels is produced in China or other low cost offshore locations, the great bulk of high-end pro-spec photo gear is still produced in Japan proper. Furthermore, my understanding is that a disproportionate number of both Nikon's and Canon's factories are located in Sendai. This was ground-zero for the earthquake and tsunami, and the costal zone was simply devastated. The region is still suffering power blackouts. Then there's the little matter of a catastrophic nuclear melt-down and hundreds of square kilometers of radioactive contamination. It will be many months, perhaps years, before supply chains and production rates are back to normal.
Imagine the effect of such a calamity hitting the coast of New England, combined with a catastrophic melt-down of (say) the Seabrook nuclear reactor. It would be a very long time before you could expect to receive those L.L. Bean boots you ordered.
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Mark clearly made the point that this problem preceded the quake. The distaster only made it worse.
Michael
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Am I the only one who finds the "de haut en bas" tone of this article (which in any case seems to be a summary of numerous other similarly titled internet discussions on the same general topic) condescending, not to say pompous, in the extreme?
Of course I feel deeply for Mr Dubovoy's suffering in his recovering state, despite never having been afflicted with the wealth needed for purchase of the exotic hardware to which he has been addicted. Like so many others I'm stuck with these positively awful DSLRs. How impressively broad minded of him to have even considered one for use on his safaris.
When I read, in a home page article -
"My initial thought was to procure a professional level DSLR such as a Nikon D3x or a Canon 1Ds MKIII. That is where the problems started. I looked at the B&H ads. These cameras are not even listed! I perused the B&H website, ..."
I procured a dictionary and upon perusing it, concluded that Mr. Dubovoy should do likewise in order to avoid writing "discretely" when I assume he meant "discreetly".
Frankly, I too was amazed...
Roy
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Am I the only one who finds the "de haut en bas" tone of this article (which in any case seems to be a summary of numerous other similarly titled internet discussions on the same general topic) condescending, not to say pompous, in the extreme?
Yes...
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Am I the only one who finds the "de haut en bas" tone of this article (which in any case seems to be a summary of numerous other similarly titled internet discussions on the same general topic) condescending, not to say pompous, in the extreme?
Of course I feel deeply for Mr Dubovoy's suffering in his recovering state, despite never having been afflicted with the wealth needed for purchase of the exotic hardware to which he has been addicted. Like so many others I'm stuck with these positively awful DSLRs. How impressively broad minded of him to have even considered one for use on his safaris.
Roy
Mark is not being pompous nor is this a matter of being wealthy or not. There is clearly a problem with the availability of specific cameras, usually the latest and most desirable models. It's driving prices up and forcing some to purchase these cameras on ebay or other auction sites at a premium. This situation is a pain. I have been affected by this issue personally because I wanted to get a GH2 this spring but had to settle for a Canon 60D instead since the GH2 was unavailable. I work with numerous students and pros and this spring I saw only one of them use a GH2. This person was from Switzerland and purchased his camera in Switzerland. Many of the same people were interested in getting one but couldn't. A similar issue surfaced with the Fuji FinePix 100. This is certainly not a superficial problem. Mark is just one of the first to make a large number of people aware of this issue.
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Am I the only one who finds the "de haut en bas" tone of this article (which in any case seems to be a summary of numerous other similarly titled internet discussions on the same general topic) condescending, not to say pompous, in the extreme?
No.
I don't know why he doesn't just buy his required equipment here in Africa prior to starting his safari?
There plenty of stock available, from any number of outlets.
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No.
I don't know why he doesn't just buy his required equipment here in Africa prior to starting his safari?
There plenty of stock available, from any number of outlets.
Because then he'd likely have to sell it locally at a large discount or take home equipment that would be difficult to have serviced under warranty because the warranty would be for the wrong country. It's also possible that he just didn't think of it...
And whilst B&H, and other stores are out, Adorama seems to have 1DsMk3 in stock (or their web ordering does!). That aside, I believe that it was commented on various rumours sites that Canon had withdrawn the 1Ds MK3 from their website earlier in the year - the general feeling is that the 5D Mk2 cannibalised its sales quite heavily. I'm surprised that he was surprised about not being able to find a 1Ds MK3 for sale from regular stores.
However, if he'd been able to find the right equipment, either to buy or rent, then (a) the article he posted wouldn't have been written (although the blog post from lens rentals mentioned earlier in this thread is a much better read - much more depth/analysis of the problem in industry) and (b) there'd be no upcoming article on what it's like to use a small sensor, mirrorless camera with interchangsble lenses on safari.
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Am I the only one who finds the "de haut en bas" tone of this article (which in any case seems to be a summary of numerous other similarly titled internet discussions on the same general topic) condescending, not to say pompous, in the extreme?
You probably are the only one. But the article feels more like a blog entry due to personal experiences and anecdotes, but no real data. That works well for camera reviews, not so well for analysis of claimed supply chain challenges.
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One of the risks writing articles is that readers will misunderstand the purpose or even go so far as to insult the persona of the author. The former is excusable, the latter is not. There is also a risk of people reading more into a piece than the author ever intended. Also excusable, but then let us come back to context. I think it's fair to say that North American consumers (and indeed those of most of Europe, Japan, Australia, etc.) are not accustomed to systematic, broad-cast shortages of anything; so when it happens, something has changed and one wants to know what's going on. I think Mark Dubovoy was simply trying to bring this to our attention at least within his range of recent (attempted) shopping experience and elicit views about the situation. Not more, not less, and certainly not deserving of some derogatory commentary that has appeared (under pseudonyms) in this thread.
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It was a good thing that Mark brought it to attention of some people who were not aware of the supply problem.
Mind you, when Michael Reichman writes a good review about a particular piece of equipment, we can be assured that item will be in short supply for the next six months.
However, the supply problems are not limited to the top of the line, just announced, or exotic products. Earlier this year (before the Japan earthquake), I needed a lowly Nikon 35mm/1.8 lens and couldn't find it for several months in any of the major US stores.
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I think it's fair to say that North American consumers (and indeed those of most of Europe, Japan, Australia, etc.) are not accustomed to systematic, broad-cast shortages of anything; so when it happens, something has changed and one wants to know what's going on.
This article sounds like the Author is still stuck in 2006 or 2007.
Have you realised that we are in the still ongoing deepest ecconomic crisis since at least 80 years? (The verdict is still out on the 80 years, it might become "ever"). That Greece (Europe) is right now on the brink of financial collapse that would send the world ecconomy into a second tail spin, that might make Lehmans and aftermath look like a child's play?
That we do not know yet if the "remedies" of the first crisis (i.e. printing money like there is no tomorrow) will have helped or really cause problems which are on a magnitude worse?
That there are 44 million US citicens on food stamps which is nearly 14% of the population?
That there are hundreds of thousands in emerency shelters in Japan because their homes have been destroyed by earthquake, flood, or will not be inhabitable ever again because of radioactive contamination?
And now Mr. Dubovy realises that there must be something wrong with the world because he can not immediately buy the camera he wanted?
Hmmmm!
Mr. Dubovy is clearly a talented fellow, and he has written some excellent and provocative stuff. However, this article strikes me mostly as a juvenile rant provoked by frustration at not being able to instantly obtain what he wanted.
Mr. Duboyv strikes me as an artistic character who is deeply engulfed in his own artistic world, and quite ignorant about what's going on in the rest of the universe. I kow a number of artists like that and they are quite gentle, friendly and well meaning characters. I hope he has some good friends who advise him to refrain from publishing unwisely in the future.
I honestly hope that Greek and US and Japan debt can be brought under control, that hyper inflation can be avoided, that the nuclear plant in Japan is finally brought into a controlled state, and that the victims of the ecconomic, natural and political disasters that have plagued the world in the recent years receive the needed help to be able to rebuild their lives.
At some point in the future the world will find a new normal. I sincerely hope (no sarcasm intended here) that not finding immediately the right camera or lens that we want to buy shall be the worst of our issues then. (That sounds to me like utopian bliss, but one can hope.)
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.............Have you realised that we are in the still ongoing deepest ecconomic crisis since at least 80 years?
I have good reason to be well aware of the fundamentals underlying the current economic situation, but none of that is determinative in respect of the supply chain issues Mark discussed, save for the added issues caused by the combined disasters in Japan. There must be industry-specific factors - perhaps a number of them - combining to cause these "shortages". The fact that they are distributed very unevenly around the world is perhaps a clue, but not clear what to make of it.
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I was at the PMA show in Sydney yesterday looking at the Lumix G3. Panasonic supplies of the GH2 have been poor, though I haven't looked too hard. I asked about the listed July date for supply of the G3 and was told that it should be July, if shops order them in. I found the last part of his sentence very telling, if shops order them in. It might be a little part of the jigsaw, why stock niche cameras which will probably be tested in the shop and bought online?
Cheers,
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The fact that they are distributed very unevenly around the world is perhaps a clue, but not clear what to make of it.
If you were Japanese and had a limited stock that will not be replaced in the short term, where will you send it? To the US with a deprecating currency? Or to Australia, Switzerland and Norway where the currency appreciates by the day?
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Yes...
Or then again ... no ...
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If you were Japanese and had a limited stock that will not be replaced in the short term, where will you send it? To the US with a deprecating currency? Or to Australia, Switzerland and Norway where the currency appreciates by the day?
You're making my point from some posts back - the fundamental problem stems from supply issues. If there were no supply issues the Japanese manufacturers would supply all markets, making more money from some than from others. I don't for sure, and most likely you don't either, know what kinds of arrangements the manufacturers have in place with their distributors and financing partners to anticipate, hedge and otherwise manage currency risk in their pricing and other commercial arrangements protecting the adequacy of the revenue stream once converted back to the currencies they require. There's nothing new or recent about the difficulties of the USD.
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Well yes and no.
Before the Tsunami, it was a problem of allocating flow. Now it is the allocation of a finite stock. (With the hope that flow will become available again.)
We agree that it is an issue that is ongoing since many months.
If there would have been an entry in a personal blog, or a new forum thread I might have found it amusing if somewhat outdated.
But an article?
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Let me ask you what evidence you have that before the tsunami it was a problem of "allocating flow"? How can you know that? How do you know that these manufacturers had no interest in keeping the US market fully supplied? One would need to be privy to a lot of internal corporate information to come to such a conclusion with any confidence. In the case of Leica, for example, I've heard that demand for the S2 outstripped their ability to supply it. That is a fundamental demand:supply issue. There has also been much discussion of materials and components shortages in various branches of high-tech manufacturing overseas, going back some time before the events in Japan. That is also a fundamental supply issue. I'm not saying that the US market absolutely can't be affected by some kind of strategic supply management on the part of certain manufacturers - nothing is impossible; but I am questioning whether we can say that for sure, and even if we can, whether it is the fundamental cause of the shortages.
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Let me ask you what evidence you have that before the tsunami it was a problem of "allocating flow"?
Well, obviously, there are shortages in some places and not in others. It seems the city were I live has been totally ignorant about the merits of the GH2 or the Pentax K5 - I was able to see 3 GH2 (a body and two kits) and 2 K5s in a single afternoon stroll (the K5s were even "on sale"). IMHO, just an opinion, some areas are a bit better shielded from the "Internet review rushes" than others and are therefore more immune to the acute shortage phenomenon. I talked with one of the store owners, telling him those cameras were in high demand and he looked at me as if I was crazy. Small local photography stores, with no Internet presence, non english speaking owners, maybe that explains it.
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Just another data point ... so far as Lumix and other m43 stuff is concerned, seems readily available both on shop shelves and mail order here in Switzerland. I haven't really been looking, but I've seen Leica S2s and Pentax 645Ds in windows in recent weeks...
Maybe margins are healthier here, so finally we're getting a bit of payback :-)
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And maybe the prices are higher?
Reminds me a of a little story - worked weekends in a camera shop in downtown Montreal in my youth to help pay for my "extras". There was a major department store just up the street always undercutting us with specials on film (remember that stuff?). So this snarky customer comes in asking for a roll of Kodachrome, I put it on the counter and tell him the price - they guy retorts that the other place sells it for less. So the shop owner, who was standing beside me, tells the fellow if that's the case he should buy it there. Customer responds "they're out of stock". Shop-owner responds with a big smile on his face: "When we're out of stock we give it away". :-) One of those good ones that comes back to mind on appropriate occasions.
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Good one, Mark!
Eric
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Beautiful, expressive images by Mark Dubovoy.
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My husband easily found GH2's in stock on the web with google search and his (with the 14-40) will be delivered here on Colorado next Thursday . Eleanor
Just another data point ... so far as Lumix and other m43 stuff is concerned, seems readily available both on shop shelves and mail order here in Switzerland. I haven't really been looking, but I've seen Leica S2s and Pentax 645Ds in windows in recent weeks...
Maybe margins are healthier here, so finally we're getting a bit of payback :-)
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I'm in Shanghai right now and there seems to be more Canon and Nikon gear actually on the shelves in the various camera departments stores than in the whole of Australia! I also came across a Leica shop with almost everything in stock including a Noctilux and the Limited Edition M9. Full S2 outfits too, inc the 120 Macro which is almost impossible to get in Australia right now.
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If something's broken, maybe it is not the photo equipment supply chain but the old west (including NZ and AU) market dominance. Small signs of our decadence here and there...
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Spanish press today lamenting the imminent collapse of the Spanish and Italian economies... I wonder where it will end; cameras seem relatively unimportant in the face of all that.
So yep, maybe the old markets are fading fast. They did for me, so why not the rest - who's immune?
Rob C
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Spanish press today lamenting the imminent collapse of the Spanish and Italian economies... I wonder where it will end;
Rob C
I think it will end badly, as people realize that the charades are drawing to a close and realities need to be faced. Much debt simply will not be repaid, banks, insurance companies and other investment institutions will take hair-cuts to be negotiated, the only real question for people like us being what will be the depth and character of the collateral damage. So yes, the camera business is a very small item in the context of the global situation.
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I thought that Mark made it quite clear that he didn't want to buy "grey market", which is what it would be if he'd purchased outside of the US.
There are even some product brands which are stopped on private import by US customs because a US entity owns the trademark.
Michael
Technically, 'grey market' are products brought into the US via a route other than the distributor. Purchasing equipment outside the distributor's territory is OK, but each company has a different policy. Some have an international warranty, which covers the items anywhere, and some will only cover warranty repairs within the territory of the distributor where the product was purchased. Many of these policies are set up by the distributors themselves.
Insofar as the impact from the quake in Japan is concerned, the main problem has been the shutting down of all nuke plants, which provide about half of the electricity for Honshu(the main island). This has necessitated rolling brown/black outs effecting the whole island. Most manufacturing facilites have recovered, they just can't operate full time.
As far as the supply chain, it seems the driving force behind just-in-time was the necessity of the lowest possible cost. This was driven by a consumer mindset of mainly making a purchasing decision based on absolute lowest price, which has also been the primary cause of the extinction of service based specialty stores. The current situation in Japan has caused many manufacturers to rethink their business model. And there seems to be many in the photo community who now wonder why there's no place to actually see a product before purchase, and no knowledgable sales people to get advice from. Stocking and running a full service photo store is very expensive, and if there's no customer base to cover operating expenses, RIP. And if there's no customer base, they will not be able to stock a complete line. So actual supply may not be the only reason for empty shelves.
And thus begins the spiral.
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Stocking and running a full service photo store is very expensive, and if there's no customer base to cover operating expenses, RIP. And if there's no customer base, they will not be able to stock a complete line. So actual supply may not be the only reason for empty shelves.
This doesn't explain why the full service retail outlets - important ones - which still operate in North America have been experiencing procurement issues.
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This doesn't explain why the full service retail outlets - important ones - which still operate in North America have been experiencing procurement issues.
Mark,
You're working on the assumption that the dealers WANT stock and they can't get it....there is another explanation.
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Mark,
You're working on the assumption that the dealers WANT stock and they can't get it....there is another explanation.
Hi Joe,
REALLY great to hear from you! Yes, you're right - I think that's been the underlying working hypothesis throughout the thread - and indeed in the original contribution that triggered all this discussion. And what you are saying is a serious consideration. I'd like to hear more from you along those lines, but may assume you're getting at the reality that in a relatively dismal economic environment retailers are prone to minimize their risks and carrying costs by running perhaps excessively lean operations? I think we see much of that in a lot of other retailing too.
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Hi Joe,
REALLY great to hear from you! Yes, you're right - I think that's been the underlying working hypothesis throughout the thread - and indeed in the original contribution that triggered all this discussion. And what you are saying is a serious consideration. I'd like to hear more from you along those lines, but may assume you're getting at the reality that in a relatively dismal economic environment retailers are prone to minimize their risks and carrying costs by running perhaps excessively lean operations? I think we see much of that in a lot of other retailing too.
I think all retailers (perhaps with the exception of the really big ones such as B&H) are moving to just in time inventory to keep a lid on carrying costs. This is not an issue at the consumer end where products move quite quickly but more at the high end. In our area down here we have seen numerous upper scale audio/video retailers close up over the past three years as the market shifted quickly to the bigger retailers. I suspect the same thing is happening in the camera area. The metro Washington DC area is maybe close to 4 million people these days and we have one good camera retailer who have 8 retail locations. Prices are competitive with the big Internet retailers (they do carry the Leica M9 but not the S2) and I haven't encountered any supply issues (but then I really only buy something big maybe once a year). They do not offer much in the way of printers or paper. This being said, the stores seem to always be busy when I stop by.
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This doesn't explain why the full service retail outlets - important ones - which still operate in North America have been experiencing procurement issues.
Never claimed it was the only reason, just one. The situation in Japan will have an effect on supply for some time. (As most Nikon stuff is out of Thailand, not sure why they are impacted to any great degree)
I spend two days a week at my account, one of the last remaining full service shops in Northern California. It's 'hanging on by a thread' and has a doubtful future, partly because of management problems. However...the main impediment to it's continued existence is the notion that any B&M retailer who dares try to operate at a profit is a "ripoff". The businesses who do run a successful physical presence are the ones who have learned to adapt quickly enough in the etail realm.
Every day, the scenario is much like this - Customer comes in, spends an hour or so fondling expensive gear, when given the price become indignent and proclaims at top of voice that they can get it for so-in-so online, and walks out in a huff(And of course they wanted a discount for the display product) Now spends hours online asking what lens, bag, tripod, etc. they should get 'cause there's nowhere to go and actually handle one. Often they find out too late that their "deal" is grey market and then grouse that it's unfair that there's no warranty, or can't get it fixed if a Nikon.
Bear in mind that the margins on cameras and lenses is about 10%, so the store is making about $150 on that $1500 lens...if you buy it. Gotta sell a lot of expensive stuff to keep the doors open. The margins are better on accessories and such, but not so much as the old days. The main profit in the pre digital era was film and processing(usually what made the operation worthwhile). That's gone now, so now the equipment and accessory sales are vital to survival.
So far, the working professional(or wannabe) has been a saving grace at the store. Being one of the last places with a selection of studio lighting, backdrops, and high end gear, when something breaks, or they need a mission critical piece, there's a good chance we have it. We also do inhouse repairs, and can often get their stuff back to them in a couple of days or so. And I often figure out it's pilot error, and send them off happy at no charge. Most manufacturers charge a full repair price even if no problem is found. Have seen many $100+ clean-and-checks.
When the place shutters, wonder where they plan on going.
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I think what you are saying here is all too true - especially for mid-size retailers.
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I think what you are saying here is all too true - especially for mid-size retailers.
Hi Mark-
Yes, really sad. I've been involved in the industry for close to 30 years, 7 of which were in a variety of retail sales situations. Watching the downward spiral over the last 10 or so years has been pretty depressing. Kinda like watching an animal chew it's own foot off to escape a trap. And it's not just the photo biz, seems to be just about everything.
There are generations growing up now who will never know what it was like to have a place where you could go and get expert advice, and walk out with a purchase that will have been made based on something other than price alone and marketing hype.
The intertoobs will never replace that, but they won't care because it's all they've known. They are the natural prey for the unscrupulous.